Last week I wrote about 10 late-round pitchers I like to target in roto and categories leagues. Like usual, the research for the article yielded more than enough intriguing names. So this week, I figured it would be fun to focus on late-round pitchers specifically for points-league managers.
With that in mind, my list will focus more heavily on not just potential impressive ratios, but innings upside and relief pitcher eligibility. The former usually results in a great deal of direct points (innings pitched), but also indirectly manifests in the form of more wins and Quality Starts, both of which often carry a high value.
And “RP” eligibility matters because generally, a decent starting pitcher has greater point-earning potential than some high-end closers. Meaning, that if you play in a points league with weekly roster locks, you can roster an extra starter in a slot that usually doesn’t earn as many points. It also has the dual benefit of allowing you to bypass a closer in the early rounds and focus on other priorities.
One more note before getting to the list: ADPs are based on NFBC’s 30-day average.
10 Late-Round Pitchers to Target
Brandon Pfaadt SP DBacks ADP 185
2024: 181.2 IP 11-10 W-L 185 K 4.71 ERA 1.24 WHIP
If you’re looking at Brandon Pfaadt’s ratios last year (above), or even his 5.06 ERA/1.30 WHIP across 277.2 career innings, you’re not going to be very encouraged. He didn’t finish strong, either, stumbling in his last 12 starts with a 6.60 ERA/1.50 WHIP. But, in this range, few pitchers have the upside of this former top prospect, still just 26 years old. Specifically, the underlying stats tell a different story than the results in 2024. An extremely high BABIP (3.15), an xERA almost a full point better than the actual thing (3.78 vs. 4.71), a FIP and xFIP to match (3.61 and 3.58, respectively), and near-elite control (5.5% BB rate good for 87th percentile) all point to bad luck. Amid all this, Pfaadt’s 185 strikeouts were 8th overall. His 181.2 innings were tied for 7th. And he was the 41st-ranked SP in points leagues. It’s not hard to imagine a world where the righty’s fortunes change, he takes a step forward and climbs into the top 15.
Cristopher Sanchez SP Phillies ADP 191
2024: 181.2 IP 11-9 W-L 153 K 3.32 ERA 1.24 WHIP
Cristopher Sanchez has near-elite control (84th percentile walk rate) and an elite ground-ball rate (95th). Perfect for someone who has to pitch half his games in Citizens Bank Park (ranks 4th in home runs according to Park Factors). Combined with his near-elite batted ball metrics (average exit velo 84th percentile and hard-hit rate 82nd), he finished as a top-30 pitcher in points last season. Why is he so cheap this draft cycle? Not totally sure. Perhaps it was a somewhat rocky beginning of 2024. He didn’t have pinpoint control over his first eight starts (3.9 BB/9 rate). It led to an unsightly 1.50 WHIP. But this was how Sanchez did in his final 23 starts: 139.2 IP 9-6 W-L 1.68 BB/9 3.29 ERA 1.17 WHIP 3.02 FIP 3.08 xFIP. Moreover, he finished 7th (tied) in overall innings pitched. Fine, the K rate (20.3%) isn’t going to help you much, but in a points league? You can get away with that just fine. Take the dependable bargain in round 16 if you’d rather not gamble on Brandon Pfaadt.
Mackenzie Gore SP Nationals ADP 208
2024: 166.1 IP 10-12 W-L 181 K 3.90 ERA 1.42 WHIP
Let me try to quickly sum up what I wrote about Mackenzie Gore last week:
First 15 starts: 3.26 ERA/1.38 WHIP/11.0 K9/2.81 BB/9
Next 10 starts: 7.09 ERA/1.98 WHIP/7.5 K/9/5.72 BB/9
Final seven starts: 1.55 ERA/0.91 WHIP/9.96 K/9/2.43 BB/9
We all know his control can elude him. And that when it doesn’t he can be elite. For 22 of his 32 starts in 2024, we saw the great version. Can that number go still higher in his age-26 season? That uncertainty is why his ADP is outside the top 200. Whether in points or roto, that seems like a good bet to me.
Bowden Francis SP/RP Blue Jays ADP 235
2024: 103.2 IP 8-5 W-L 92K 3.30 ERA 0.93 WHIP
If you’re one of those fantasy baseball managers who tunes out once you’re out of the playoff hunt (not judging), it’s very possible you missed an unlikely SP breakout. Bowden Francis dominated after a Blue Jays deadline trade opened a rotation spot. From there, the 28-year-old made 10 starts. This was his line: 65 IP 58K 1.1 BB/9 1.80 ERA 0.60 WHIP. The dominance coincided with a new pitch, a splitter that had pretty impressive results (.169 AVG/.169 SLG/.263 wOBA). Sure, skepticism is warranted. The .211 BABIP, the not-dominant fastball (just 29th percentile velocity and a .423 xSLUG against), and the elevated HR/9 rate (1.5) have led to a 20th round 12-team ADP. In a categories league, I’m less likely to bet on a repeat. But in points leagues, where RP eligibility means a lot, the gamble looks a lot more attractive. Added to that upside, the Jays pushed Francis to six or more innings in seven of his last eight starts. The points could add up fast.
Brandon Woodruff SP Brewers ADP 242
Career: 7 Seasons 46-26 W-L 10.4 K/9 3.10 ERA 1.05 WHIP
Ace pitcher Brandon Woodruff missed all of last season. He required anterior capsular surgery to repair his throwing shoulder. Past results of the surgery run the gamut. Julio Urias and Johan Santana are two notable names that regained their command. Urias was only 20 years old, though. And Santana, possibly due to overuse (threw a 134-pitch no-hitter), didn’t last a full season. The good news: at 31, Woodruff will be two years younger than Santana was. Honestly? It’s anyone’s guess how he’ll respond until we actually see him on the mound. That is likely to happen within the next month. As of now, the plan is for him to be ready for Opening Day, but the Brewers figure to ease the veteran back so you might need an IL spot. In any case, a 21st-round pick for ace upside seems worth the gamble.
Nestor Cortes SP Brewers ADP 289
2024: 174.1 IP 9-10 W-L 162 K 3.77 ERA 1.15 WHIP
There was plenty of skepticism for Nestor Cortes heading into last season. Was he the 2.44 ERA/0.92 WHIP ace we saw in 2022? Or was he the ineffective (4.97 ERA/1.25 WHIP) injury-prone pitcher we saw in 2023? The answer in 2024 turned out to be something in the middle. A lefty with a good ERA (3.77, xERA 3.62), improved control (5.5% BB rate), a decent-enough K rate (22.8%), and a workhorse (just outside the top 10 in innings). But it looked like the 30-year-old could get squeezed out of the Yankees’ rotation until he was traded earlier this month to Milwaukee. That could account for a much-deflated ADP that keeps the veteran outside most standard drafts. Considering the Brewers will likely rely on the veteran to eat innings, will be competitive, and have a pitcher-friendly ballpark (tied for 22nd in Park Factors), that’s some solid value with your last pick in points leagues.
Jackson Jobe RP Tigers ADP 301
2024 (minors, 3 different levels): 91.2IP 21GS 96K 2.36 ERA 1.12 WHIP
I included Jackson Jobe in my roto/categories list last week. To sum up: he’s the top pitching prospect on both Fangraphs and MLB Pipeline. He breezed through three minor league levels last season. He got his cup of coffee with the big-league club during a playoff run and even in the actual playoffs. And according to his President of Baseball Operations, we’re likely to “see some new things” in his arsenal. The 22-year-old also appears to be the front runner for the 5th-starter role. If all those things weren’t convincing enough, his late-season relief appearances have made the righty RP eligible. That’s pretty handy in points leagues, where a starter’s workload can game the system and add up the points quickly. Consider it an easy call with what essentially would be your last pick.
Clay Holmes RP Mets ADP 331
2024: 63IP 30SV 68K 3.14 ERA 1.30 WHIP
One of my favorite late-round pitcher targets, I wrote about Clay Holmes last week. The highlights: he’s an effective high-leverage reliever whom the Mets signed this offseason to be a starter. There have been many recent, high-profile success stories of other relievers doing the same thing (Seth Lugo, Michael King, and Reynaldo Lopez). The 31-year-old also has been working to expand his arsenal to suit a starter’s role. And he’ll have the same pitching coach who helped him with those adjustments last season. Specific to points leagues, the righty obviously has RP eligibility which ought to give fantasy managers a big advantage. Especially if he can muster even close to the “160 innings” he intends to throw. Points, roto, or even deep leagues, this is a gem hiding in the late rounds.
Bubba Chandler SP Pirates ADP 337
2024 (minors): 119.2 IP 10-7 W-L 11.1 K/9 3.08 ERA 1.02 WHIP
In 2025, the Pirates have a legit chance to roster back-to-back Rookie-of-the-Year pitchers. That’s because Bubba Chandler, a 22-year-old with an upper-90s fastball, dominated the competition after an August promotion to Triple-A (7 GS 39.1 IP 12.4 K/9 1.83 ERA 1.05 WHIP). Seemingly as a result, the Pirates traded away starting pitcher Luis Ortiz this offseason to clear some room. This means the prospect’s primary competitors to break big-league camp are Johan Oviedo, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, and Bailey Falter, who has a career 4.62 ERA. Moreover, unlike some other top minor-league arms, Chandler’s 120 innings last season should nullify the need for a hard cap. Considering the Pirates let Paul Skenes throw 160 as a rookie, it at least should not be a factor in the Opening Day roster decision. It’s also the reason that I particularly like this pick for points leagues. If you have an N/A spot, or a deep bench, it’s a no-brainer. But even if you’re just speculating, it costs you nothing and you’ll know for sure before the season starts.
Nick Martinez SP/RP Reds ADP 376
2024: 142.1IP 10-7 W-L 116K 3.10 ERA 1.03 WHIP
While we’re on the topic of hidden late-round pitching gems who successfully converted to a starter’s role, we should also include Nick Martinez. I did just that last week. But I’d love to reiterate how effective he’s been at limiting hard contact (94th percentile average exit velocity and 96th percentile hard-hit rate in 2024) and improving his walk rate (2nd-best overall among qualified starters). It went so well down the stretch that in 11 starts he slashed a 2.42 ERA, and a 1.09 WHIP while compiling six Quality Starts and five wins. Add the RP eligibility and the presumed spot in the rotation (Reds committed $21 Million to him), you have great points-league upside very deep into the player pool. There probably aren’t a ton of deep points leagues, but if you’re one of those few, don’t miss out.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
