Every year there are a handful of players who come out of nowhere to absolutely crush their value and play a major role in winning fantasy championships. In 2024, we saw players like Brent Rooker, Jackson Merrill, and Brenton Doyle finish Top 50 in fantasy points in most leagues with Rooker leading the way finishing Top 20. All three of these players were drafted outside the Top 250 with Doyle going undrafted for the most part. For this reason, I am always drafting for upside with youth versus safe, veteran-type players in the late rounds of fantasy baseball drafts.
While there is not an exact science in picking these players, there are a ton of signs that can point us in the right direction if we are looking in the right spots. This early in the draft season, it is crucial to pay close attention to the positional battles in Spring Training, especially when looking at young players trying to crack major league rosters. There is obviously some risk in drafting some of these players as you generally won’t be able to hold them if they start the season in the minors but the upside can be huge. This is another reason why I love drafting most of my teams at the start or at least the first half of Spring Training.
Now let’s jump in and look at some of my favorite breakout players in the American League!
Fantasy Baseball Breakout Players: American League
Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays)
Caminero was about to enter Spring Training a bit under the radar until his massive 454-foot bomb in the 9th inning of game seven of the Dominican Republic Winter League finals in January. The celebration might have been more electric than the home run, to be honest.
While one hit doesn’t exactly paint the entire picture for 2025, he carried that success over to Spring Training as he already has three home runs and eight RBI through five games. In 2024, albeit in a limited sample size, he impressed with an elite bat speed (77.2), barrel rate (11.8%), and hard-hit rate (45.7%) which does help us project him for big things in the future.
His ADP has crept up inside the Top 90 picks as the 7th or 8th third baseman off the board. The floor may remain somewhat low until he can learn to handle off-speed pitches a little better but if that happens, he most definitely has the upside to be Top 5 at his position.
Cade Povich (Baltimore Orioles)
Povich was traded from Minnesota after his first season as a pro and quickly worked his way to majors making his debut in 2024. Things didn’t go as planned early on as he posted a 6.58 ERA and low 15% K rate but he ended the season on a high note. Over his last five starts, he posted an impressive 2.60 ERA, raised the K rate to an elite 29%, and had a 111 Stuff+ on his sinker and 116 Stuff+ on the slider.
As of today, he isn’t projected to make the Orioles rotation but if he continues his red-hot spring, he may just force their hand. It’s only been two starts but through five innings, he has seven punch-outs to one walk and has allowed just one hit.
The lefty looks like a future top-of-the-rotation arm and could break out as soon as 2025 and if that’s the case his ADP of ~577 is an absolute steal!
Matt Wallner (Minnesota Twins)
If you are in search of power later in your drafts and/or looking to fill your outfield spots, get Matt Wallner on your que so you don’t miss out. He hit 22 home runs in the minors in 2022, hit 23 between the minors and majors in 2023, and then a combined 32 combined last season. Across two seasons and 151 total games in the majors, he has 27 home runs, 78 RBI, and an elite 149 wRC+. The one knock on Wallner, that has understandably held him back, is the 34% K rate during that stretch. Despite a ton of swings and misses, he has still got on base at a 37% clip which is a huge bonus if you are playing in an on-base percentage league. The power appears to also be sustainable looking at his Baseball Savant profile. He didn’t have enough at-bats to qualify in 2024 but would have been in the 90th or higher percentile in average exit velocity(92.8), barrel rate(17.5%), hard-hit rate(53.2%), launch angle sweet spot rate(38.1%), and bat speed(77.3).
More good news with Wallner is the Twins have had serious talks about putting Wallner in the leadoff spot, a strategy that would be similar to the Phillies and Kyle Schwarber. With that opportunity combined with the possibility to contribute in three or more categories, Wallner could be a huge steal at pick 276 as the 68th outfielder off the board.
Spencer Arrighetti (Houston Astros)
Arrighetti flashed his strikeout upside in 2024 but because of a 4.53 ERA, 10% walk rate, and 1.41 WHIP, he is going as a #5 or #6 starter in 2025 fantasy baseball drafts. What I like the most about Arrighetti potentially breaking out is the steady improvement over the course of his rookie season. His first 15 starts were a bit ugly posting a 6.13 ERA, 12.3% walk rate, and 1.65 WHIP but he improved dramatically to close out the season. Over those final 13 starts, he posted an impressive 3.08 ERA, a much lower 8.3% walk rate, and 1.18 WHIP. The biggest improvement was his fastball allowing him to get a lot more first-pitch strikes. This then allowed him to be more aggressive which saw his K rate rise to 29% in that span.
He should open the 2025 season in the #4 spot in the Astros rotation and if he continues to improve on the walks, could see a huge breakout for fantasy and contribute in multiple categories.
Who are your favorite breakout hitters this season? Drop some names in the comments below. For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
