2025 Fantasy Baseball: First Base Projections and Profiles

Hopefully, you’ve already checked out our 2025 Consensus First Base Rankings. If not, make sure you head on over there after you get done with this article. Below you will find our Catcher Profiles and Projections that go hand in hand with our rankings and help you see the reasoning behind them.

The profiles were written by a variety of our MLB staff. I did all the projections with a little help from a system called Projecting X. The system was developed by Mike Podhorzer, one of the top analysts in the industry for about as long as I can remember. I created a spreadsheet using the system with a little help from Tanner Bell and Smart Fantasy Baseball. Smart Fantasy Baseball features some incredible tools that help you be the expert you thought you already were. Tanner is also one half of the duo that wrote The Process, one book I would recommend to anyone who wants to get really good fantasy baseball.

You’ll find that the first base projections below are pretty conservative. Hot takes and bold predictions get attention but most of the time they don’t pan out and they rarely win leagues. Accurate projections do, and I’ll put these up against any in the industry. For now, we’ve profiled mostly just the first basemen in our Top 30 first base rankings. As the season draws closer we’ll add some names when playing time starts to get a little more clear. Don’t worry, I’m one of those 12-team mono-league types so you know we’ll go deep.

Have fun and feel free to call us out in the comments. If there’s a first baseman missing that you’d like to see profiled, let us know and we’ll move them to the top of the to-do list.

First Base Projections and Profiles

Pete Alonso, 1B, Free Agent

Pete Alonso had what should be considered a down season in 2024, as the power numbers we’re used to seeing went missing. In fact, barring a pandemic-shortened season, his 34 home runs were the lowest he’s had over his tenure with the Mets. The problem was that he saw the most Breaking pitches of his career last year and finished with a .173 batting average against, all while posting a 36.0% Whiff rate against them. He also finished with his highest ground ball rate of his career culminating in this forgetful season. One has to wonder if his impending free agency was on his mind, as this wasn’t the Alonso we’ve grown to know nd count on. Where he winds up next season likely doesn’t matter, but if he has another slow season, his draft stock may start to plummet. – Dave Funnell

Luis Arraez, 1B/2B, SDP

Fantasy managers know what they are getting with Luis Arraez. He is the best pure hitter in baseball and is a near lock to hit over .300. His incredibly low strikeout rate makes him an attractive option in points leagues, but his lack of power and speed prevent him from being a difference-maker in standard formats. If you are seeking runs and batting average in the mid to late rounds, target Luis Arraez but plan to make up steals and home runs elsewhere. He is a better target to fill your second base slot instead of first base where the replacement level is much higher. – Matt Heckman

Josh Bell, 1B, WSN

This was your prototypical Josh Bell season where he finished the season with underwhelming numbers. He is the very definition of hot and cold. When he is on, there are few players better than him in baseball, and he will mash the heck out of the ball. However, when he is cold, it is like taking ice off of a glacier. Looking at his numbers, they seem low, given that he plays every day and those hot streaks are remembered as so massive, that the home run total feels low. He will likely reproduce these sorts of numbers next season because this is who he is. A word of caution and warning: buy him when he has hit rock bottom and sell him when he is red hot. – Dave Funnell

Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, NYY

Looking back on his tenure with the Cubs, Cody Bellinger had two very different seasons in Chicago despite not much changing from year to year. While his overall numbers were down in 2024, his approach remained the same, posting similar strikeout rates, walk rates, and plate discipline. Still, even with the slight changes in his batted ball profile (lower line drive rate and solid contact rate), nothing really stands out as “the reason” for a step backward. It may just come down to health, as he missed some time due to a rib injury and a fractured finger, both of which could have attributed to the loss in power. The move to New York is a slight ballpark upgrade and the supporting lineup will help but for the most part, Bellinger is what he is at this point. – Dave Funnell

Jake Burger, 1B/3B, TEX

The new Khris Davis, Jake Burger has hit .250 in three consecutive seasons. After a dreadful start to 2024, Burger was one of the best hitters in baseball across the back half of the season slashing .279/.339/.562. His 19 home runs in the second half ranked sixth in all of baseball and fantasy managers should be confident in his power sustaining into 2025. With the trade to Texas, Burger joins a lineup that should help maximize his production. He enters 2025 as one of the more underrated power options at first base for fantasy baseball managers to target. – Matt Heckman

Michael Busch, 1B, CHC

All Michael Busch needed was a chance. He got that last year in Chicago and played himself into a starting role at first base. There is the possibility that the Cubs add a first baseman over the winter, but I wouldn’t expect Busch to be completely banished to the bench. We are going to have to live with the strikeouts and a mediocre batting average. Busch needs to improve on his 74.4% contact rate, but when he makes contact, good things happen. Last year he had an 11.2% barrel rate and that provides some upside and optimism. After hitting .271 in the first half of the season, that dropped to .216 in the second half. The tools are here for Busch to bounce back and then we can be looking at him differently. Just don’t expect many more home runs than we got in 2024. – Ray Kuhn

Jeimer Candelario, 1B/3B, CIN

The batting average took a significant step back last year for Jeimer Candelario, but with his BABIP following suit, it’s truly a lost cause. Based on injuries and what the Reds do in the off-season, there will be some playing time concerns here. At this point, we know what we are getting from the solid veteran as a replacement value corner infielder. The dual eligibility is valuable, but Candelario is likely best used as a platoon option. Of his 20 home runs last year, 15 came at home and 17 were against right-handed pitching. – Ray Kuhn

Triston Casas, 1B, BOS

A popular breakout candidate in 2024, Triston Casas wound up playing just 63 games due to a rib injury. Although Casas struck out over 31% of the time, he still managed to hit 13 homers which equates to 32 prorated across 600 plate appearances. Casas also put together a respectable .250/.311/.446 slash against lefties, helping remove any risk of him falling into a platoon. Fantasy managers should draft Casas as a back-end 1B1 with the upside to become one of the premier options at the position if he can lower his strikeout rate. – Matt Heckman

Jake Cronenworth, 1B/2B, SDP

Jake Cronenworth is about as average as you can get. He finished 2024 with a .241/.324/.390 slash line and a 105 wRC+ across 656 PAs. However, what Cronenworth lacks in flashiness, he makes up for in consistency. Outside of a 2023 season cut short by a wrist fracture, Cronenworth has logged at least 640 PAs per year since 2021. He’s also popped 17-21 home runs, collected 155+ runs and RBI, and thrown in 3-6 steals each season. There’s nothing eye-popping here, but that production plays, especially in a barren first base landscape. Cronenworth is a safe bet to put up similar numbers in 2025. – Lauren Auerbach

Yandy Diaz, 1B, TBR

Once we get past the fact that Yandy Diaz isn’t a power hitter, he certainly has value. However, 2024 was a down year for Diaz, but his 55 runs scored were also symptomatic of a down year for Tampa Bay. Diaz’s .192 ISO from 2023 is clearly an outlier. It doesn’t help that he simply doesn’t lift the ball and there is also a lack of correlation between his hard-hit rate (48.5%) and barrel rate (7.6%). Let Diaz fill your corner infield slot, but be aware you need to find additional power elsewhere. – Ray Kuhn

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B, CIN

Prior to undergoing wrist surgery in May, Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s 2024 season was disappointing. His uber-aggressive approach, combined with suspect contact skills prevented him from tapping into his massive raw power consistently. This was a concern throughout his time in the Minor Leagues and could continue to plague him in 2025. The power upside is massive but fantasy managers should temper expectations for CES in 2025, considering he has only 364 Major League plate appearances under his belt. He represents a high-risk high-reward option for fantasy managers. – Matt Heckman

Freddie Freeman, 1B, LAD

We know that the aging curve doesn’t do players many favors, and Freddie Freeman wasn’t alone in 2024. After stealing 23 bases in 2023, he dropped down to nine last year and I think that part of his game won’t return. That doesn’t mean we should fade Freeman though as he returns to one of the strongest lineups in baseball. Freeman will continue to have ample RBI opportunities to get back over the century mark while hitting for a strong average. We did see a decreased barrel rate (11.1% to 9.1%) but Freeman’s hard-hit rate stayed relatively consistent. Just modify your expectations to go remain closer to 20 home runs than 30 and we likely have seen the last of him hitting over .300. – Ray Kuhn

David Fry, C/1B/OF, Cleveland Guardians

One of the biggest surprises of the season saw David Fry break out and become a valuable hitter. He had just enough appearances at catcher, but it’s worth noting that he hit just .237 after the All-Star Break, making him a huge risk for a player who had never seen much success heading into his age-29 season. The good news is that he hit well against all pitch types and shows enough patience at the plate to add a bump in value in points leagues. – Dave Funnell

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, NYY

Paul Goldschmidt enters free agency coming off the worst offensive season of his career. Despite the down season, Goldschmidt still managed to hit 20+ homers and steal 10+ bases proving he still holds some value. Now 37, there are major questions over what Goldschmidt’s fantasy value is moving forward; and while it may not be what it once was, he is almost guaranteed a starting role in 2025. His name value could push him further up draft boards than his production warrants. – Matt Heckman

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, TOR

The 2024 season was everything that the fantasy world had wanted to see from Vladimir Guerrero after a monster breakout in 2021 was followed by two consecutive lackluster years. So what did he do differently? For one, he showed patience at the plate, not necessarily adding more walks to his overall numbers, but by being selective at the pitches that he wanted to hit. He lowered his first pitch swing percentage to a career-low 27.4%, making sure he would work the pitch count. He also raised his line drive contact to a career-high 26.9%, making it some of the best contact possible. Where does he go from here? His 2025 should continue along this trend, making him one of the best first-basemen in the game. – Dave Funnell

Bryce Harper, 1B, PHI

Despite a 126-plate appearance homerless drought in the middle of 2024, Harper still reached 30 home runs for the fifth time in his career. The move to first base has not slowed Harper down one bit as he continues to put up near-MVP level production offensively. Harper will be 32 for the 2025 season but does not appear at risk of falling off any age-related cliff anytime soon. Fantasy managers should draft Harper with confidence that Harper will continue producing elite fantasy numbers. – Matt Heckman

Rhys Hoskins, 1B, MIL

Rhys Hoskins’ 2024 season was par for the course. A batting average below .250 and nearly 30 home runs is exactly what fantasy managers should expect from Hoskins each season moving forward. Hoskins notably increased his pulled fly ball rate by over 15% this last season which helped to offset the move away from Citizens Bank Park. He is a reliable source of power and RBIs for fantasy managers with everything else considered a bonus. He is a safe, albeit unexciting, option for fantasy managers later in drafts. – Matt Heckman

Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, WSN

It’s tough to find too much to complain about with Nathaniel Lowe. While his 27-home run season in 2022 looks like an outlier, Lowe has still maintained steady production for the last four seasons. He has an OPS of .760 or higher in that span and hasn’t carried a batting average lower than .262. It’s worth noting that Lowe’s quality of contact metrics have slipped for the past three seasons. But he can still be counted on for 15-18 dingers, solid counting stats, and a plus plate approach. He’s also one of the more durable options at the position. Heading into 2025, consider Lowe a solid 3.5-category contributor who gets a boost in OBP formats. – Lauren Auerbach

Kyle Manzardo, 1B, CLE

Kyle Manzardo saw more consistency in his playing time down the stretch and into the playoffs last season. While the season line is underwhelming, Manzardo slashed .270/.333/.540 in September and has the prospect pedigree to make this run of success believable. Manzardo should fill an everyday role with the Guardians in 2025 and will likely be a popular sleeper pick in the fantasy community. He has the potential for 20+ home runs and strong on-base percentages next season. – Matt Heckman

Ryan Mountcastle, 1B, BAL

Ryan Mountcastle took a step back last year, and on a loaded Baltimore team, playing time is beginning to be a concern. From a splits perspective, nothing really jumps off the page, but that doesn’t mean the Orioles won’t look to exploit the advantages of others. More concerning is the decrease we are seeing in Mountcastle’s power production over the last four years from his peak of 33 home runs in 2021. We’ve also seen significant decreases in Mountcastle’s launch angle and barrel rates in that same span which generates some concern. – Ray Kuhn

Josh Naylor, 1B, ARI

Josh Naylor broke through in 2024, hitting for power and becoming one of the team’s go-to-guys in the lineup. While some of the reasoning for the jump in power can be attributed to health, he didn’t really change much in order to unlock this power. There were some rumblings within the season that the change in the ballpark caused a wind tunnel that led to increased offense, but the team debunked that theory and attributed it to experience and coming into their own. While Chase Field doesn’t play as hitter-friendly as it used to, the trade to the Diamondbacks could help get one more level out of Naylor.

Ryan O’Hearn, 1B/OF, BAL

Ryan O’Hearn had what should be considered his best season to date, as he received almost everyday at-bats and finished with the highest single-season power output of his career. He also lowered his strikeout rate to a paltry 14.0%, which is far and away the most patience he has shown at the plate. All that being said, one has to wonder if the version of him that we saw in the second half of the season is what we see going forward. He struggled after the All-Star Break, as he hit just four home runs and hit for just .250 the rest of the way. It was a major dry spell for him which also included a strikeout rate of over 20% and a walk rate of 4.3% in the final month of the season. Those numbers are more in line with what we’ve grown to expect from O’Hearn over his seven-year career, and will likely be what we see going forward. – Dave Funnell

Matt Olson, 1B, ATL

Matt Olson’s 2024 season was a summation of his career, in that he struggled to begin the year, but picked things up in the second half. Known for his up and down seasons, Olson finished the year somewhere in the middle of what his career would be if it were rolled up into one full season. With respect to next season, one can expect a season filled with power numbers that make him a very reliable first baseman. What makes him one of the best is that next year he will likely play in one of the best lineups in baseball, and one that was decimated by injuries in 2024. With a full cast of supporting characters, his runs batted in and runs scored could make him a four-category stud next season. – Dave Funnell

Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, KCR

After returning for the postseason, Vinnie Paquantino should enter the 2025 season without any issues related to his broken thumb. While he is entering his age-27 season, I’m not sure how much more we can truly expect out of Pasquantino. The fact that Pasquantino doesn’t strike out does go a long way here. From a batted ball perspective though, Pasquantino hasn’t truly shown signs of taking the next step as his metrics have remained relatively consistent. After playing in only 61 games two years ago, at least he waited until September for his injury this year. While it’s possible a truly healthy off-season and season pushes him to the next level, I don’t want to pay for it on draft day. – Ray Kuhn

Salvador Perez, C/1B, KCR

Father Time is no match for Salvador Perez. 2024 marked Perez’s eighth straight full season with 20+ home runs. Since the start of 2021, Perez has 28 more home runs than any other catcher in baseball. The Royals leap forward also helped Perez eclipse 100 RBIs for the first time since 2021. Similarly to Yainer Diaz, Perez’s lack of plate discipline gives him a bit more volatility than other options, but he is as safe a bet as any to finish with 20+ homers in 2025. Expect the Royals to get the 34-year-old off his feet a bit more in 2025, but Perez remains a premier fantasy option at the catcher position. – Matt Heckman

Luke Raley, 1B/OF, SEA

Luke Raley finished the 2024 season with an impressive 20+ home runs and double-digit steals for the first time in his career. While his .243 batting average leaves a lot to be desired, through month-by-month dissection, it has a lot of bright spots. Outside of April and July, he batted no less than .263 in any given month, making him one of the more consistent Mariners hitters. He seems limited in his abilities, mind you, as he hit .189 against left-handed pitchers, making him a true platoon bat and limiting his overall value. Given how shallow the first base landscape is in 2025, Raley could be a viable corner infielder with the chance to take a step forward in production. – Dave Funnell

Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Free Agent

Anthony Rizzo is reaching the final stages of his illustrious career, and his numbers are dwindling as a result. Long gone are the days when he was a five-category contributor, as now he struggles to even hit for power. While his eye at the plate is still very good (17.3% strikeout rate), the rest of the profile screams for Father Time to win another one. He isn’t hitting the ball as hard as he used to and is chasing more pitches. While the short porch in New York should help him, it’s fair to wonder if his body can hold up, as injuries have plagued any chance of momentum-gaining progress he could have had. It’s fair to assume that this will be his final season. – Dave Funnell

Carlos Santana, 1B, CLE

If you’re looking for an undervalued first baseman in 2025, look no further than Carlos Santana. He put up near-identical stat lines in the last two seasons with 23 home runs, 4-6 steals, solid run production totals, and a .240 batting average. That’s not flashy, but it’s certainly playable at corner infield. There is some risk with Santana, as he’s a free agent entering his age-39 season. However, his skills and underlying metrics remain intact, and he brings durability and a strong plate approach to fantasy lineups. With the everyday first base job in Cleveland in 2025, Santana should be a reliable, if boring, asset for fantasy. – Lauren Auerbach

Nolan Schanuel, 1B, LAA

Nolan Schanuel’s quick ascension to the Major Leagues likely had more to do with how mismanaged the Angels are and less to do with how good he is as a player. Still, he has developed his game somewhat, as a player who can get on base and sprinkle in a small amount of power. He finished the second half of the season with a .270 batting average, and that was while he was playing through some injuries. His philosophy has been him wanting to get on base and allow the players behind him to drive him home. His brief Minor League and collegiate careers both saw a player who was able to get on base, so there’s a chance that we see a “Luis Arraez-like” upgrade here from Schanuel. That being said, if he can’t hit for .300 or more, there isn’t much other use for him in fantasy because the rest of the counting stats leave a lot to be desired. – Dave Funnell

Tyler Soderstrom, 1B, A’s

Tyler Soderstrom was a promising Minor League prospect within the famr system of the Athletics before making his debut in July of 2023. Since then, his numbers have been underwhelming to the tune of a low batting average with middling power. The hope is that he can come into his own as the team’s first baseman next season and tap into the power that saw him hit at least 20 home runs in two consecutive Minor League seasons. He does show patience at the plate, and his strikeout rate, while gaudy at 24.9% was a big improvement from his rookie year when he struck out 31.2% of the time. There is some potential here for upside, and he’s playing on a team that is in no rush to see it flourish. Look for him to be a nice buy-low in drafts with the notion that he can be replaced on your roster for someone who is producing. – Dave Funnell

Spencer Steer, 1B/OF, CIN

Spencer Steer has put up near-identical production totals for back-to-back seasons. The glaring difference is a 46-point drop in batting average in 2024, stemming from a second-half slump where Steer hit below the Mendoza Line. While we shouldn’t dismiss his poor second half, Steer brings too much fantasy goodness to the fantasy table to discount him too much. His power and speed combo is a rare find at the position. Plus, he’s OF-eligible, plays in a great hitter’s park, and should continue getting a boatload of playing time. Steer is a top-10 option heading into 2025 draft season. – Lauren Auerbach

Michael Toglia, 1B, COL

Michael Toglia found himself to be a very useful fantasy player down the stretch, but not for the reasons one would expect. His power boost was a nice complement to his 50.2% Hard Hit rate which grouped themselves nicely alongside his above-average walk rate, making him a reasonable play in points leagues. However, the biggest red flag here is his 32.1% strikeout rate, which puts him as one of the league’s worst in that category. Still, what makes him confusing are his Home and Away splits, where he wound up hitting seventeen home runs on the road and had just a .235 batting average at home. If he can work with the team this offseason to better utilize his home park, he could find himself to be a useful first baseman. Otherwise, he’s a low-end corner infielder who could be useful in some spots. – Dave Funnell

Andrew Vaughn, 1B, CHW

Andrew Vaughn is fresh off his fourth season where he struggled to find consistency. .208 in May, .333 in June, .188 in July, and .297 in September. The one area of his game that Vaughn should find more success in next season is the home runs. Despite hitting 19 homers, only 41% of his barrels went for a home run last season which is well below the league average. Fantasy managers should expect Vaughn to clear the 20 home run threshold in 2025. Vaughn is not the most exciting pick, but he does not turn 27 until April and could be a value come draft day. – Matt Heckman

Lamont Wade Jr., 1B, SFG

There’s a lot to like about LaMont Wade Jr. He hits for decent power, doesn’t strike out a ton, and takes plenty of walks. He’s had problems hitting lefties most of his career, struggling with a .207 average but he turned that around in 2024 by hitting .324 against southpaws. Wade Jr. Has led off a lot in his career which explains his absurdly low RBI totals, but he’s currently slated to hit third in the Giants’ order and should post career bests in that department. He’ll never be a player to build your team around but 2025 looks like it could be the best season of Wade’s career and he can be a contributing member of any fantasy baseball roster.

Christian Walker, 1B, HOU

For the second straight year, Christian Walker finished the season with a 119 wRC+. He likely would have reached 30 home runs for the third consecutive season if not for an oblique injury that cost him over a month. Walker has become one of the most reliable options at first base for fantasy managers. He is a strong 3-category contributor and holds additional value in OBP leagues thanks to his strong walk rates. Walker is not flashy, but he should be drafted as a back-end 1B1 in drafts this season. – Matt Heckman

For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.