Pitching can be difficult to draft, because they experience so much fluctuation in performance, outside of a few stalwarts. One pitcher may have had a great previous season, and ends up as a high draft pick, then performs poorly. Other times, fantasy baseball managers may expect a pitcher to be on an innings limit, then they play a full season, and he becomes one of the best value picks of the draft. However it goes, having pitcher tiers is an excellent way to strategize how to attack the position in drafts.
Starting Pitcher Tiers
Much like outfielders, fantasy managers must roster more pitchers than any other position. You should prioritize rostering at least one pitcher in the top three tiers. Still, there is quite a bit of pitching depth.
Tier 1: Elite
- Paul Skenes
- Tarik Skubal
- Chris Sale
- Zack Wheeler
Paul Skenes looked like prime Jacob deGrom last season, posting an 11.5 strikeout-per-nine rate, and a 1.96 ERA. He did this in 133 innings, so fantasy baseball managers should expect a full slate of games from him this season, barring injury. Skenes has elite stuff, as well as top-notch command. He finished second to Garrett Crochet in K-BB% among starting pitchers who tossed at least 130 innings.
Tarik Skubal bounced back in a major way in 2024, finishing with a 2.39 ERA in 192 IP. It was his first season surpassing 150 IP and he dominated batters. Only two qualified pitchers last season finished with at least 10 strikeouts per nine innings and fewer than two walks per nine. They were Skubal and Chris Sale.
Sale also pitched extremely well last season, which was his age-35 season. Fantasy managers may worry about an aging curve causing a decline in performance, but since 2010, Sale has finished with an ERA over 3.41 just twice. He is as consistent as it gets… when he’s been healthy enough to take the mound.
Another extremely consistent pitcher is Zack Wheeler. Since 2021, Wheeler has pitched 190 innings or more three times. Additionally, he has a 2.94 ERA, a 10 K/9 rate, and a 2 BB/9 rate during that span, while also inducing a 45% groundball rate and stranding runners three-quarters of the time they reach base.
Of all the pitcher tiers, this one houses some of the safest bets for production.
Tier 2: Borderline Elite
- Garrett Crochet
- Logan Gilbert
- Shota Imanaga
- Framber Valdez
- Sonny Gray
Logan Gilbert could be the best pitcher in baseball when it comes to roto stats, if he had a more productive offense to get him more wins. He finished with a 9-12 record last season, even though he posted a 3.23 ERA, with a 9.5 K/9 rate and a 1.6 BB/9 rate. He has multiple out pitches, and has improved his GB% each year he has been in the majors. Gilbert has also limited line drives and hard contact, with those rates decreasing for the third year in a row. Additionally, he has increased his chase rate for the third year in a row, while lowering his contact rate for the fourth year in a row. If Gilbert continues to improve, he could work his way into the “best pitcher in baseball” conversation.
Shota Imanaga looked like he could be one of the best pitchers in baseball throughout much of last season, finishing with a 2.91 ERA. He projects for an ERA in the mid-3 range this season but should be able to do better than that this year. He has an excellent fastball/splitter combo, but can also get batters out with a filthy changeup, among other pitches.
Tier 3: Last Pitchers I’d Want As My SP1
- Hunter Brown
- Pablo Lopez
- George Kirby
- Cole Ragans
- Corbin Burnes
- Dylan Cease
- Logan Webb
- Seth Lugo
Fantasy managers who stuck with Hunter Brown last season reaped the rewards of a solid season. He started with an 0-4 record and a 9.78 ERA in March and April. After that, his worst month was July, where he went 4-2, with a 3.53 ERA. If he can keep or improve on his 9.4 K/9 rate from last season, and improve his 3.1 BB/9 rate from last season, we could be looking at a top-10 starting pitcher.
George Kirby also dealt with some ups and downs in 2024, but for the most part, is a model of consistency. His 3.1% BB rate since 2021 is the best in baseball during that span. That helps balance out a below-league-average K/9 rate. He also threw 190 innings for the second year in a row, so fantasy managers should feel comfortable drafting him as their top arm.
Seth Lugo had arguably the best year of his career in 2024. Despite a 7.8 K/9 rate (third lowest of his career), he managed a 3.00 ERA. Projections for Lugo suggest there could be some major regression this season, but if his excellent stuff from last season carries into 2025, he should not regress too far. He experienced some good fortune in his HR/FB rate last season, so as that gets to league average this season, his ERA may regress. However, Lugo also made improvements last season that could carry over this year. He got more batters to chase, limited pulls and line drives, limited hard contact, and allowed less contact overall. Lugo is a solid pitcher to build around in fantasy as long as you can get strikeouts somewhere else.
Tier 4: Great SP2 Options
- Jack Flaherty
- Luis Castillo
- Reynaldo Lopez
- Bryce Miller
- Tanner Bibee
- Justin Steele
- Michael King
- Zac Gallen
- Brady Singer
- Tanner Houck
- Zach Eflin
- Kevin Gausman
- Aaron Nola
- Tyler Glasnow
- Jacob DeGrom
There are a few players in this tier who have something to prove, whether that is performance-related or health-related. Jack Flaherty has to show that last year was not a fluke and that he is back to his 2018-2019 form. Tyler Glasnow and Jacob DeGrom have to show that they can stay healthy. Glasnow has reached 100 IP three times since 2016, while DeGrom has thrown 105 total innings in the last three years combined.
Tanner Houck has to show he can pitch well through a whole season this year. He looked like an ace in March through May but went 4-5 from June on, and had an ERA over four in June and August.
My favorite option in this tier is Zach Eflin. He has four top-notch out pitches, including his fastball, curveball, sinker, and cutter. Each induced outs at a higher rate than league average. He may not induce many strikeouts, but he is among the best at inducing outs overall. He also limited walks, stranded runners, and induced groundballs at higher rates than league average last season. Similar to Lugo, fantasy managers that draft Eflin should plan to find strikeouts elsewhere.
Tier 5: Last Pitchers I’d Want As My SP2
- Shane McClanahan
- Max Fried
- Blake Snell
- Freddy Peralta
- Shohei Ohtani – SP ONLY
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- Grayson Rodriguez
- Gerrit Cole
- Carlos Rodon
- Nathan Eovaldi
- Ronel Blanco
- Merrill Kelly
- Bryan Woo
- Spencer Schwellenbach
Like tier four, a number of these pitchers will be rebounding from injury or innings limitations in 2024. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Gerrit Cole, Shohei Ohtani, Shane McClanahan, and Merrill Kelly each threw fewer than 100 innings last season. Blake Snell, Bryan Woo, and Grayson Rodriguez did not surpass 122 IP. The Dodgers have so much pitching depth, that they should not need to push Ohtani or Yamamoto too much this season. Cole showed some signs of a decline despite finishing with a 2.60 ERA in 2023. His 3.60 xFIP and 3.63 SIERA from that season line up more with his production in 2022, and his production in limited time last season.
Of all the pitchers in this tier, Ohtani could put up some of the best numbers, just because he is an athletic freak. But I also think Rodriguez has a chance to return top-20 value or better. His changeup was the best at getting batters out last season, and he balances that with a wipeout slider. Last season, Rodriguez improved on his K/9, BB/9, LOB, chase, and contact rates from 2023, and it shows in his improved ERA. If he can continue those trends into 2025, he could be one of the best in the game.
Tier 6: Arms With Upside
- Ryan Pepiot
- Sean Manaea
- Taj Bradley
- Nick Pivetta
- Robbie Ray
- Reese Olson
- Nick Lodolo
- David Festa
- Jeffrey Springs
- Cristopher Sanchez
- Joe Ryan
- Jared Jones
- Luis Gil
- Jesus Luzardo
I like quite a few players in this tier as late options that could help fantasy managers fill out their rotation in terms of filling statistical needs. This is a high-risk-high-reward tier, though.
Taj Bradley looked great through parts of last season and has major upside when it comes to his strikeout ability. He has to find a way to limit walks, and that would take him to the next level.
Nick Lodolo has some remarkable stuff, including one of the best curveballs in the league. If he can put it all together and stay healthy, he could be one of the best sleepers in fantasy. Lodolo has a career 4.52 ERA, but a career 3.74 xFIP and 3.53 SIERA.
Reese Olson does not strike many batters out, but his ability to induce grounders makes up for it. His 50% GB rate last year would have ranked eighth best if he qualified.
Similarly, Cristopher Sanchez dominated batters last season with an absurd changeup, that helped him to the league’s third-best groundball rate among qualified pitchers. He has said he is working on a new pitch, per Todd Zolecki, which is even better news if it turns out to be a pitch he can use to get lefty batters out.
Tier 7: Arms With Some Upside
- Kumar Rocker
- Nestor Cortes
- Ranger Suarez
- MacKenzie Gore
- Roki Sasaki
- Jose Soriano
- Bailey Ober
- Luis Severino
- Hunter Greene
Ranger Suarez was looking like a Cy Young candidate through June before his performance fell off a cliff in July. His inconsistency creates some risk for fantasy managers.
MacKenzie Gore also flashed his potential last season. He finished with a 3.90 ERA, and a slightly improved Nationals team could help him to a few more wins, which would add some fantasy value. Gore hit some bad luck when it came to stranding runners and had a .340 BABIP, both of which potentially impacted his performance last season.
All eyes are on Roki Sasaki, who has been the highest-profile international signing this offseason. His projections are all over the place, though, because we just do not know what he will do. He has some injury concerns and will probably face some innings limits with a deep Dodgers pitching staff to help fill in the gaps. If Sasaki goes among the top 40 starting pitchers, I am okay missing out on him.
Tier 8: Ugly Innings Dart Throws
- Yu Darvish
- Jameson Taillon
- Erick Fedde
- Tobias Myers
- Chris Bassitt
- Clarke Schmidt
- David Peterson
- Mitch Keller
- Brandon Pfaadt
- Reid Detmers
- Eduardo Rodriguez
- Brayan Bello
- Yusei Kikuchi
- Gavin Williams
- Spencer Strider
- Shane Baz
- Bowden Francis
- Jose Berrios
- Jake Irvin
- Andrew Abbott
- Ryan Weathers
- Kodai Senga
- Sandy Alcantara
Tier 9: Great for Streaming
- DJ Herz
- Tyler Anderson
- Casey Mize
- Brandon Woodruff
- Matthew Boyd
- Andrew Heaney
- Max Meyer
- Zack Littell
- Jordan Montgomery
- Aaron Ashby
- Tyler Mahle
- Walker Buehler
- Justin Verlander
- Marcus Stroman
One of my favorites from this tier to help fill out your pitching depth is Jameson Taillon. He had his most productive season since 2018, bolstered by a sweeper/curveball/sinker combo that was nearly unhittable last season. He tossed them a combined 1,020 times, and they were hit a total of 58 times. Taillon had a career-low K/9 rate but improved his BB/9, LOB, and GB rates from 2023.
Mitch Keller is another pitcher to target late. He is durable and has a solid floor, but just needs to make small adjustments to improve. Four of his pitches ranked as above league average at inducing outs, with Keller being one of eight pitchers that can make that claim. Allowing fewer line drives, a little less hard contact, and increasing his chase rate could be a game-changer for him.
Tier 10: Super Deep Streaming Options and Desperation Picks
- Spencer Arrighetti
- JP Sears
- Kutter Crawford
- Ryne Nelson
- Jackson Jobe
- AJ Smith-Shawver
- Zebby Matthews
- Quinn Matthews
- Michael Wacha
- Eury Perez
- Noah Schultz
- Andrew Painter
- Jack Leiter
- Cristian Javier
- Bobby Miller
- Sean Burke
- Dustin May
- Shane Bieber
- Cade Povich
- Ben Brown
- Landon Knack
- Louie Varland
- Hayden Birdsong
- Grant Holmes
- Osvaldo Bido
- Sawyer Gipson-Long
- Chase Silseth
Pitchers in tiers nine and ten are mostly dart throws. From this point on, these are pitchers I would be comfortable dropping after two weeks or so of poor performance. Many of these pitchers are streamers to rely on throughout the season.
Some other pitchers who showed promise and should be in the mix for your last starting pitcher drafted include Andrew Abbott, DJ Herz, Landon Knack, Louie Varland, and Chase Silseth.
Think we should rearrange any players into different tiers? Share it in the comments below. For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
