Sleepers and busts are every fantasy player’s favorite article to read. Before I wrote this, the first thing I would do to start my draft prep was google “fantasy baseball sleepers” followed by “fantasy baseball busts”. Now, I have the honor of bringing you sleepers and busts that will hopefully lead your fantasy teams to a championship. The first base sleepers were already released on Fantrax. Keep reading to find out the first base busts fantasy managers should be avoiding in drafts
2025 Fantasy Baseball First Base Busts
Luis Arraez – 1B, SDP
For a player who finishes near the top in hitting each year, it sure is tough for Luis Arraez to find a permanent home. Part of that is his defense, but the majority of that is a shift away from traditional priorities. Arraez’s offensive production is tied entirely to his elite batting average. His wRC+ dropped down to 109 this past year and trade rumors are once again swirling. Part of Arraez’s fantasy value is driven by his second-base eligibility. The state of second base makes this plausible, but his current draft price of 1B14 is far too rich. Fantasy managers will be disappointed paying that much for a player of Arraez’s skillset.
The nice part about Arraez is that fantasy baseball managers know what they are getting. Arraez has hit above .300 in five of his six Major League seasons. His contact skills are incredible and the lack of strikeouts is a huge boost in points leagues. Arraez has perhaps the highest floor of any player in baseball. The issue is that you do not win fantasy baseball championships by targeting high-floor players early on in drafts. If it is late and you have a chance to add a player that can stabilize your roster, that can be a wise move. Wasting a pick on a player who will undoubtedly finish middle of the pack will leave you feeling disappointed throughout the season.
Everybody is aware of the issues in Arraez’s profile. While his contact skills are the best, he fails to impact the ball. His power output got even worse last season. Arraez has never hit many home runs. Last season he finished with only four which was his lowest total since 2021. Arraez’s barrel rate was the lowest of his career at just 1.6%. He also posted the lowest average exit velocity of his career at 86.3 mph. His hard-hit and barrel rates ranked in the first percentile in all of baseball. Even with an elite batting average, there is only so much fantasy value he can generate.
Maybe the inclusion of Arraez in a bust article is misplaced. Arraez is unlikely to “bust” barring some sort of injury. However, the whole purpose of a busts article is to help fantasy managers identify which players they need to avoid. Arraez should certainly be on that list. Last season, Arraez finished as the 1B13. In 2023, Arraez finished as the 1B11. Back in 2022, Arraez finished as the 1B12. Even in Arraez’s best seasons, he is unable to finish as more than a fringe-1B1. The lack of upside in his profile makes him an easy player to avoid in fantasy drafts. His draft price is far too high when players going behind him offer significantly more upside. Avoid Arraez in fantasy drafts in 2025.
Vinnie Pasquantino – KCR
What writing this article has shown me is that it is very difficult to identify a first baseman who is clearly going to bust. There are certain players with risks but most of the issue is just being disappointed. That is exactly the case with Vinnie Pasquantino. Flash back a couple of years and Pasquantino was the popular breakout pick from nearly everyone in the fantasy community. Now, even going as 1B11, Pasquantino is an easy player to avoid in fantasy drafts.
When Pasquantino broke into the Major Leagues in 2022, he seemed like a dream come true for fantasy managers. The big-bodied first baseman hit 10 homers in just 298 plate appearances while also showing off incredible contact skills. Many viewed Pasquantino as the game’s next star. Injuries ruined his 2023 season but the fantasy hype returned for 2023. Yet again Pasquantino was bothered by injuries that limited him to just 131 games. Durability is clearly a factor to consider when considering drafting Pasquantino. However, it is really his on-field performance that should have fantasy managers concerned.
First basemen are known for power. In his debut season, Pasquantino seemed to have plenty of that. Standing at 6’4”, power should be a part of his game. However, Pasquantino prioritizes contact. He further reduced his whiff rate in 2024 to 14.5%. He takes what pitchers give him, spraying the ball to all fields. By prioritizing contact, Pasquantino often struggles to control the barrel, leading to some weak contact at times. Pasquantino’s sweet spot rate dropped below the league average last season, and his barrel rate continued to disappoint. At just 7.1%, Pasquantino’s barrel rate was lower than players like Lane Thomas, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Matt Vierling. Since debuting, Pasquantino has never posted barrel rates that stand out. At a certain point, fantasy baseball managers need to accept that game-changing power is not what Pasquantino strives for.
Playing his home games in Kansas City does Pasquantino no favors, and this will not change in 2025. Pasquantino has amassed 814 plate appearances over the last two seasons. He owns a .257/.318/.443 slash with a 106 wRC+. This is a lower wRC+ than Carlos Santana. Sometimes, fantasy managers get an idea of what a player could be engrained in their heads. That seems to be the case with Pasquantino. Entering his fourth season, it might be time to accept Pasquantino for who he is. Drafting him inside the top 115 picks in fantasy drafts will leave fantasy managers disappointed in 2025.
Michael Toglia – COL
Michael Toglia was a fun surprise for the Rockies last season. After spending parts of the two previous seasons in the Major Leagues, many in the fantasy industry had given up on Toglia entering 2024. After working his way into a starting role midway through the season, Toglia finished with 25 home runs in just 458 plate appearances. Toglia’s raw power combined with the magic of Coors Field has fantasy managers dreaming about his power potential over a full season. As is often the case, this dream and allure of Coors Field is pushing Toglia’s draft price higher than it should be. Toglia is being drafted as the 1B15 inside of the top 200 picks. There are better options at first base later in drafts making Toglia an easy fade in 2025 drafts.
Toglia’s power makes him an attractive option for fantasy managers. However, are we even sure he will be able to maintain a starting role in 2025? Toglia got chances in the Major Leagues in both 2022 and 2023. He posted a 44 wRC+ in 272 plate appearances and was sent back to Triple-A each time. As impressive as Toglia’s 2024 season was, he was still a below-average offensive player. Toglia hit 25 homers with a walk rate north of 11% and still finished with just a 98 wRC+.
The issue? Toglia’s hit tool is terrible. In each of his three Major League stints, Toglia has struck out over 30% of the time. He whiffed on 34.9% of the pitches he saw, ranking in the third percentile in baseball. Toglia’s whiff rate is particularly bad against non-fastballs. Toglia whiffed 54.6% of the time breaking balls and 43.8% of the time on offspeed pitches. He hit .153 and .150 off of those pitches respectively. The book is out on Toglia entering 2025. Throw him breaking pitches and chances are he is going to swing and miss. The three process charts below show just how drastic the differences are when throwing Toglia a fastball versus other pitch types.
There are a few different ways that below-average hitters maintain regular playing time at the Major League level. The first is through good defense. Unfortunately, Toglia is a well below-average defender. In limited playing time, Toglia generated an OAA of -5. The other way is through opportunity on a bad team. While this appears to be the case on the surface, the Rockies have several top prospects knocking on the door of the Major Leagues. As the Rockies search for at-bats for players like Zac Veen and Yanquiel Fernandez while also finding at-bats for Jordan Beck, Kris Bryant, and Hunter Goodman, Toglia could get squeezed out of playing time.
For those tracking at home, Toglia has one thing going for him. Yes, his power potential of 30+ home runs makes him an intriguing fantasy option. Yes, he will get the chance to start on Opening Day. However, there should not be a high level of confidence that he can maintain this starting role. Toglia struggles defensively and his hit tool is amongst the worst in baseball. Of the 286 players in baseball who accumulated 300+ plate appearances last year, only 24 of them struck out 30% of the time or more. This is 8.4% of the batters. Toglia is not a standout talent like Oneil Cruz or Elly De La Cruz. There is a strong chance Toglia loses playing time at some point in 2025 making him a prime bust candidate.
Who are the first base busts you are avoiding? Drop some names in the comments below. For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
