I am doing a series where I offer up three fantasy baseball thoughts for every MLB team. I’ll take a look at under-the-radar stats, playing time projections, projected roles, and off-season news to try and highlight the nuggets that might help you in your 2025 fantasy baseball drafts. We’ll do this thing in alphabetical order, and next up are three thoughts for the 2025 Houston Astros.
3 Fantasy Baseball Thoughts for the 2025 Houston Astros
Hunter Brown Is an Ace
In looking at early ADP data, Hunter Brown is going off the board around pick 100. As draft season progresses, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Brown’s price increase by at least another round or two. By the time we get to the end of the season that number could be much higher if he performs like he did in the second half of 2024.
Brown followed up an impressive 20.1-inning debut in 2022 with a deceivingly strong 2023 campaign. In 155.2 innings, the right-hander had a 5.09 ERA but his 4.27 xERA generated some optimism. Those feelings were solidified in 170 innings last year. He posted a 3.48 ERA and his 3.27 xERA also backs that up.
With an average fastball velocity of 96.1 miles per hour, Brown brings the heat. The good news is that he also had a 48.9% ground ball rate which helps him avoid damage. Striking out just over a batter per inning is also a contributing factor in Brown’s success. Even when opposing batters make contact, their chances of success don’t dramatically increase. Last year, Brown allowed a barrel rate of just 4.5% with a hard-hit rate of only 30.3%.
Spencer Arrighetti Will Build on His Second Half
The overall numbers aren’t appealing for Spencer Arrighetti, but a 5.63 ERA in the first half of the season will certainly do that. Once the second half of the season hit though, we saw a different pitcher. Injuries pushed Arrighetti into the rotation to begin the season, and by the end, he proved his worth.
Arrighetti posted a 3.18 ERA in 65.0 second-half innings while holding opposing hitters to a .226 average. The right-hander struck out 78 batters while bringing his walk total down to 21 after walking 41 batters in 80 first-half innings. While I would like to see a ground ball rate higher than 36%, Arrighetti does benefit from a favorable outfield defense. His .321 BABIP does allow some room for improvement and Arrighetti’s 3.97 xERA reflects that. On an overall basis, it represents some upside over him 4.53 ERA on the season.
Hitters had just a 7.7% barrel rate against Arrighetti. If he can continue to harness his control, the right-hander is a solid option. Not having to worry about run support or the bullpen also helps here.
Don’t Sleep on Bryan Abreu
Even if Ryan Pressly isn’t traded, it’s clear that Bryan Abreu has a true high-leverage role in Houston’s bullpen. The argument can be made that he has surpassed Pressly in the pecking order and that puts Abreu in line for any saves not recorded by Josh Hader. Last year, Abreu saved just one game to Pressly’s four while Hader locked down 34 games.
In holds leagues, there is clear value as Abreu will be used in the seventh and eighth innings of close games. Just because Abreu doesn’t have “closer” next to his name doesn’t mean that he isn’t worthy of attention in the relief pitcher rankings. Within leagues that give equal, or similar value to saves and holds, then Abreu should be higher ranked than a great deal of closers. And if that’s not the case, the right-hander has more value than filling out your pitching staff with a middling fourth or fifth starter.
Last year, Abreu had a substantial workload as he recorded a 3.10 ERA in 78.1 innings. With an 11.83 K/9, Abreu added value to any staff he was on while eliminating the risk of a streamer getting obliterated.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
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