I am doing a series where I offer up three fantasy baseball thoughts for every MLB team. I look at under-the-radar stats, playing time projections, projected roles, and off-season news to try and highlight the nuggets that might help you in your 2025 fantasy baseball drafts. We’ll do this thing in alphabetical order, and this time around I’ll consider three thoughts for the 2025 San Diego Padres.
3 Fantasy Baseball Thoughts for the 2025 San Diego Padres
Jackson Merrill Isn’t Worth a second-round pick
Following a strong rookie season, if you want to roster Jackson Merrill for his sophomore season, you’re going to have to draft him in the second round. Nothing against the success Merrill had or his prospects entering his age-23 season, but that’s more expensive than I’d like it to be.
For starters, Merrill is only eligible in the outfield after playing all 155 games there last year. While his .292 average shouldn’t be ignored or lost in the shuffle, it’s really the power and speed that I’m after with this pick. In either situation, Merrill falls short of second-round status with 24 home runs and 16 stolen bases.
He did drive in 90 runs and score 77 times, but this looks a lot better to me in the fourth or fifth round. Merrill has never been a prolific base stealer, and we are likely at his ceiling. There was a strong 11.3% barrel rate last year and all of his expected stats point to more success. But if he can’t get past 30 home runs and/or 20 stolen bases, there will be something missing. I’ll gladly scoop this up in rounds four or five. However, if he was still eligible at shortstop, then it might be a different story.
Tirso Ornelas is Worth a Late Rounder Flier
And by late round flier, I mean after pick 700 which puts Tirso Ornelas on the radar for only the deepest of leagues. His league at-bat will be his first. However, we can make the argument that Ornelas is ready to make the jump to San Diego. Based on the current composition of the Padres roster, that is slated to come early in 2025.
Last season, Ornelas appeared in 128 Triple-A games and found success batting .297 with a strikeout rate of just 16.1%. Ornelas also hit 23 home runs to go along with 89 RBI and 76 runs scored with an ISO of .200. It was the best season of Ornelas’ career, and by no means can we expect the same level of production at the big league level. However, the fact that he doesn’t strikeout a ton and hits for a solid average certainly helps.
Believe in Most of Michael King
The centerpiece of the Juan Soto trade a year ago, Michael King acclimated himself well to San Diego and being a full-time member of the starting rotation. King made a career-high 30 starts, compared to a previous high of nine, while also blowing past his innings mark as well. After throwing 104.2 innings in 2023, King followed that up with 173.2 innings last year.
The best month of King’s season was in September when he had a 1.57 ERA, but it also remains to be seen how he responds to the increased workload. On overall basis, he did have the lowest average fastball velocity of his career at 93.8 miles per hour. That was down a mile per hour compared to 2023 and is well below his 2022 mark of 96.5 miles per hour when he pitched out of the bullpen.
King struck out 10.42 batters per nine innings while recording a 2.95 ERA. That came with an xERA of 3.54 which is likely more in line with where we could expect it to be moving forward. At 3.26 walks per nine innings along with just a 40.4% ground ball rate, there are some concerns, but King is still a strong rotation option. Opposing hitters managed just a 6.2% barrel rate against King last year along with a 30.1% hard-hit rate. With a 66.1% first-pitch strike rate, King was able to get ahead of hitters with ease. We might have seen the best King has to offer last year, but he won’t be far off from that in 2025. I’m just not sure he’ll take another step forward.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
