I am doing a series where I offer up three fantasy baseball thoughts for every MLB team. I look at under-the-radar stats, playing time projections, projected roles, and off-season news to try and highlight the nuggets that might help you in your 2025 fantasy baseball drafts. We’ll do this thing in alphabetical order, and this time around I’ll consider three thoughts for the 2025 Seattle Mariners.
3 Fantasy Baseball Thoughts for the 2025 Seattle Mariners
Victor Robles Isn’t a Complete Lost Cause
For starters, Victor Robles is never going to live up to his lofty prospect status from five years ago. I’m not sure he’ll ever repeat his 2019 season for Washington in which he hit 17 home runs, scored 86 times, and stole 28 bases. Robles also hit a solid .255. Since then, things have been choppy for Robles at the big league level and he has 15 home runs in total.
The change of scenery appeared to work last year for Robles as he moved to Seattle. Between the two teams, Robles hit .307 in 91 games. Robles spent the majority of his playing time, 157 plate appearances, in the leadoff spot. Entering the 2025 season, that is where Robles is slated to return to after hitting .293 in his time atop the order in 2024.
We know that Robles is fast, and that is the best element of his game. He does a decent job getting on base with a 7.1% walk rate, and we also saw improvement as his strikeout rate dropped to 18%. If this is a change that sticks for Robles, it will go a long way toward enhancing his value. A .370 BABIP does give concern about his batting average sticking, but a .261 xBA is more reasonable.
Robles’ 34 stolen bases in 91 games certainly buries the lead, and with regular playing time, there is a path to 50. With just four home runs, a .126 ISO, and a 6.2% barrel rate, there is the risk that Robles is really a two-category contributor. However, that just means we need to value him appropriately.
We Can Live With Cal Raleigh’s Batting Average
A .220 batting average is never going to be overly exciting. At the catching position though, it certainly is a give and take though as we have to weigh things differently. Seattle uses the DH spot, 19 starts last year, to keep Raleigh’s bat in the lineup consistently. Last year, it worked as Raleigh played in 153 games.
He took advantage of the additional playing time going from 30 home runs to 34 last year. However, it was in the RBI department where he truly made an impact. After driving in 75 runs in 2023, Raleigh had 100 RBI last year as he cemented himself in the middle of Seattle’s batting order.
Raleigh continued to strike out around 28% of the time, but from an OBP perspective, he does walk 11.1% of the time. His ISO at .216 remains at a high level while his barrel rate jumped to 15.4%. The catcher came close, 48.1%, to having every other batted ball be considered “hard hit”. As added bonus, Raleigh also stole six bases.
We did see a slight dip in Raleigh’s BABIP to .251 last year which put his xBA at .235. That is a little more palatable and more in line with his 2023 performance and what we can expect moving forward.
Don’t Forget About Luis Castillo
Luis Castillo has quickly become the boring option in Seattle’s rotation. If you have forgotten about him, or if he’s overshadowed by the Mariners’ other options, that’s reasonable. However, I’m here to make sure he stays on our radar. In early drafts, Castillo does have an ADP of about 70, so it’s clear that the market has not, but it’s clear that veteran is not at the top of the list as far as buzz goes.
While Castillo’s strikeouts per nine innings dipped from 10.01 to 8.98, 2024 looked remarkably similar to what we have come to expect from the right-hander. Over the past two seasons, home runs have become a little more of a problem, 1.28 per nine innings, but it hasn’t really impacted his overall numbers. Last year, Castillo finished with a 3.64 ERA while dealing with a hamstring injury.
Overall, there is nothing to suggest that Castillo is slowing down and we should expect another similar season in 2025. It may not be exciting and there likely isn’t any upside, but the base is pretty strong.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
