Welcome back golf fans. In this article, I will break down the courses, look at the stats to focus on in our models, and then go over a few players who should be on our betting cards this week. Let’s get started with the 2025 Genesis Invitational!
With the wildfires in the Pacific Palisades area, this year’s Genesis Invitational has been moved from Riviera Country Club to the Torrey Pines South course. This is also the third Signature Event of the season welcoming an elite field including six of the Top 10 and 45 of the Top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings. As a player-hosted signature event, there will be a cut that includes the Top 50 players and ties along with any player within 10 strokes of the lead.
Let’s jump in and take a look at the course, top stats, and some best bets for this week.
The Courses: Torrey Pines(South Course)
The familiarity with the course shouldn’t be a problem for a lot of these players as Torrey Pines hosted the Farmers Insurance Open just three weeks prior. The only difference this time around is that only the South Course will be used for this event. The course is a Par 72 coming in at a monster 7,765 yards and routinely plays as one of the hardest courses on the PGA Tour.
Key Stats: Driving Distance, Long Irons, and Putting
When we are talking about one of the longest courses on tour, it makes sense to key in on guys who can bomb it. I had it as my top stat earlier at the Farmers but it wasn’t as important as I thought. Only six of the 14 players who finished Top 10 were above-average in distance off the tee. It is a small sample size and definitely doesn’t get me off distance in my model this week with all four rounds being played on the South course.
The most important stat, by far, at this year’s Farmers Insurance Open was Strokes Gained: Approach. Of those 14 golfers who finished Top 10, 13 of them were above-average when looking at SG: Approach, and five of them gained over a stroke per round on the field with their irons. When breaking down the approach shots, I will once again be keying in on long iron Proximity from the 175-200 yard and 200+ yard ranges.
Finally, putting yourself in position to make birdies is one thing, but making putts is just as important. There were 11 golfers of the 14 Top 10 finishers who were above-average with their putter with six of them gaining more than a stroke per round on the field.
With all that said, here are the Top 10 in my stats model for this week:
- Scottie Scheffler
- Gary Woodland
- Taylor Pendrith
- Max Greyserman
- Lee Hodges
- Adam Scott
- Austin Eckroat
- Sungjae Im
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Lucas Glover
Best Bets: The Genesis Invitational
With a small field packed with elite talent at the top, I am building a bet card that really lacks any longshots. I will be loading up on a favorite and then sprinkling some outrights in the mid-tier and adding some Top 10 and Top 20 bets. Let’s get started.
Rory McIlroy Outright (+700)
Despite looking human in two events back since the holidays, Scottie Scheffler leads the way at +400 this week, a number I am not touching considering the form. I will instead be loading up on Rory who is coming off a dominating win at Pebble Beach where he gained over four more strokes total than Shane Lowry who finished in second. It started with an elite off-the-tee game where he gained 6.2 strokes on the field and then added another 3.7 gained strokes with his approach shots. To cap it off, the putter was also on fire as he gained 4.3 strokes on the greens.
While Rory has only played the Farmers Insurance Open three times and not since 2021, he has had success at Torrey Pines with finishes of 16th, 3rd, and 5th. Driving distance and Total Driving is key here and Rory is elite in those areas. With the rest of his game also looking elite early in 2025, he is my top pick this week.
Taylor Pendrith Outright (+4000) / Top 10 (+300)
I was on Pendrith at the Farmers at +3500 as he checked off every box and that is the case once again this week. With the 7th place finish at Torrey Pines a few weeks ago, he now has two Top 10’s in a row and has placed 16th or better in three of his four trips to the Farmers Insurance Open.
He returns to Torrey Pines in excellent form coming off a 9th-place finish at Pebble Beach which is also his third Top 10 in his last five events. The stats form also matches exactly what I am looking for this week as he ranks(in this field) 3rd in SG: Off the Tee, 6th in Driving Distance Gained, 10th in SG: Approach, 11th in Par 4 Scoring, and 3rd in Par 5 Scoring.
Pendrith is one golfer worth shopping around for as there are numbers as low as +3000 and as high as +5000 out there as of Monday afternoon. I will also be backing him in the Top 10 market again this week.
Viktor Hovland Outright (+5000) / Top 10 (+400)
After a disappointing showing at the Sentry Tournament of Champions following a four-month layoff, Hovland bounced back with a Top 25 at the last signature event at Pebble Beach. He ended up gaining four strokes on the field ball striking and averaged over 300 yards with the driver. The biggest risk here is the putter which has not found form quite yet but we know it’s there as he was well above-average on the green in 2024. Looking at the course history at Torrey Pines, he missed the cut in 2019 but rebounded in a huge way with a runner-up finish in 2021.
There is not a ton of value in the mid to long range in this smaller field so I love getting back in early with Hovland, a six-time PGA Tour winner, at this number.
