In this series, I am going through each position to identify potential value based on Average Draft Position (ADP). The best time to find these ADP values is early in the draft season when there are still a lot of unknowns. This includes players returning from injury, prospects on the verge of a breakout, positional battles within a team, or a player looking for a bounce-back season. This week we turn our attention to potential outfield ADP values.
When looking at your team’s construction as you prepare for your drafts, we generally don’t find value in the early rounds. We expect the players we draft high to return their value and when they are combined with multiple players who end up outperforming their draft position, it becomes a winning formula for a successful fantasy team.
With the overall talent in the outfield falling off fast, my strategy so far this draft season has been to grab at least one Top 10 and at least two Top 15 players at the position then round out my outfielders with upside plays later in the draft. Let’s jump in and take a look at some outfielders who should outperform their ADP in 2025.
2025 Outfield ADP Values
Teoscar Hernandez – Los Angeles Dodgers
Despite a very impressive first season with the Dodgers, Hernandez is currently going off the board around OF17 in drafts right now. The fact that his situation as the cleanup hitter behind Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman hasn’t changed has me scratching my head a little bit. He finished the season with the 18th most fantasy points among ALL hitters and 6th among outfielders.
Looking closer at the leaders among outfielders, he was 5th in home runs(33), 4th in RBI(99), 7th in wOBA(.360), 8th in wRC+(134) and he posted a very respectable .272 average. Teo also sat in the 94th percentile in terms of barrel rate(14.9%) and 91st percentile in terms of xSLG(.486).
With his role as cleanup hitter in one of the best lineups in baseball, he has a great opportunity to once again finish as a Top 10 outfielder and be one of the best draft-day values on the board.
Spencer Steer – Cincinnati Reds
Steer is going outside the 10th round and in the 27th/28th outfielder range this fantasy baseball draft season which could be a huge bargain given how many boxes he is checking. In standard leagues, he is a four-category player with upside and has proven it over his first two full seasons with 20+ home runs, 70+ runs, 80+ RBI, and 15+ steals in each season. With a lower-ranked exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard hit rate I don’t think he ever gets to the 30-home-run plateau but do feel he can rebound with the average contribution and addition of 20+ steal upside, he could easily crack the Top 15 fantasy outfielder’s like he did a year ago, ranking 11th.
While the Reds lineup is not in the elite tier, Steer gets to hit in a Top 3 hitters park in baseball and for fantasy, gives us multi-position eligibility. I will have Steer on a lot of teams this season if he continues to be drafted as my third outfielder.
Colton Cowser – Baltimore Orioles
Going even deeper into the draft, we find Colton Cowser currently going off the board as OF37 and in some cases as the 4th outfielder on teams. That seems pretty insane considering his quick transition to the majors after a very productive minor-league career which included an elite .300/.417/.520 slash line and 136 wRC+ in his last full season at AAA in 2023. He did struggle in a small sample in the majors that year but the good news here is that his rookie season with the O’s in 2024 was more than they could have expected. He ended up playing 153 games and posted 24 home runs, 69 RBI, and 77 runs scored. A high 30% K rate didn’t help the average(.242) at all but that is something he can work on. I am more interested in the power potential with his elite barrel rate(13.6%) and well above-average hard contact rate(46%) and bat speed(73.8).
Looking at the players being drafted ahead of him, I see no reason why he couldn’t finish the season as a Top 25 outfielder with even more upside should he raise that average and become a four-category player.
Who are your favorite shortstop ADP values this season? Drop some names in the comments below. For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
