After a wild race at Talladega, the NASCAR Cup Series moves on to Texas Motor Speedway for the Wurth 400 this Sunday. Texas is a mile and a half asphalt quad-oval classified as an intermediate track. Its closest comparison over the years was Charlotte Motor Speedway up until 2017, when it was not only repaved, but also saw the banking turns one and two lowered from 24 to 20 degrees. This changed things a bit for teams in terms of setup, making it a bit more challenging to get a balanced setup at both ends of the track. The track traditionally had two races on the Cup schedule up until 2021, when it went down to just one race a season.
From a fantasy perspective, Texas once had a high average correlation to starting position, but that has changed since the introduction of the NextGen car. Over the three races here since the change, the track has had just an average correlation of .277 while seeing at least seven drivers tallying double-digit place differential. We have also seen a drop in dominators in the NextGen ca,r with just one driver leading 100 or more laps in the last three races, and also only once have we seen two drivers lead 50 or more laps.
Let’s dive in and look at some trends leading up to race weekend.
Wurth 400: Track History
Denny Hamlin(3) and Kyle Busch(4) have combined for seven career wins at Texas, while no other active driver has more than one. Despite their success, neither ahs won a race here in the NextGen with those honours going to Chase Elliott(2024), William Byron(2023), and Tyler Reddick(2022). Byron has been easily the most consistent of that group with a series-leading 3.7 average finish in those three races, with Brad Keselowski not far behind with a 5.7 average finish. Chase Briscoe joins Byron and Keselowski as the only three drivers to tally a Top 10 finish in each of the three races. From a value standpoint, Daniel Suarez has been excellent here at Texa,s sitting fourth in average finish in the NextGen car and has finished 12th or better in six of the last eight overall.
Wurth 400: Track Type History
Denny Hamlin won the most recent intermediate race at Darlington, and while that’s his only win on the track type since the start of last year, he leads all drivers with a 7.2 average finish over that span. William Byron hasn’t won a race on an intermediate track since his win here at Texas back in 2023, but he has been very consistent. He leads all drivers with a 6.0 average finish over three races this season and is second only to Hamlin with his 9.3 average finish since the start of last season. The mid-range of pricing has some appealing options this week with Chris Buescher, who has been very consistent, sitting right behind Byron with an impressive 8.3 average finish on intermediates this season. Right with him is A.J. Allmendinger, who is 4th in average finish(11.0) this season and 3rd(10.3) since the start of last season.
Wurth 400: Form
Austin Cindric is coming off a huge win at Talladega last week, but over the last five races, it has still been the Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson show. They have combined for four of the last five wins and are the only two drivers averaging over 70 DraftKings points per race over that span. Hamlin leads the series with a 6.4 average finish over that time, with Byron(9.2), Larson(9.4), Elliott(10.4), and Wallace(11.2) rounding out the Top 5 hottest drivers.
Wurth 400: Top Targets
William Byron (DK $10,800 / FD $13,500)
Byron checks the most boxes for me before the cars hit the track this week. He has a win here in 2023 and has finished 7th or better with three podium finishes in his last four at the track. He has been very consistent on intermediate tracks and has excellent form on the season with seven Top 10s and a series-leading 8.6 average finish. I will be looking to build around the #24 this week.
Chase Briscoe (DK $9,300 / FD $9,500)
Briscoe is one of just three drivers to finish Top 10 in all three races here at Texas in the NextGen car. He has been up and down(16.7 average finish) on intermediate tracks since the start of last year, but comes in with good form, picking two Top 5s and three Top 10 finishes over the last five races. His best value comes on FanDuel this week.
Austin Dillon (DK $6,400 / FD $5,200)
In the value range, I will be keeping a close eye on the #3 in practice and qualifying this week. He won here back in 2020, picked up an 8th-place finish last year, and has finished 17th or better in eight of his last nine trips to Texas. Dillon has also been consistent recently with a 12th at Talladega, 10th at Bristol, and has four Top 20 finishes in the last five races. His best value will come if he were to qualify outside the Top 20.
