From one national open to another, as the top players in the world head to Oakmont Country Club for the 125th U.S. Open. It marks the first time since 2016 that Oakmont will host the U.S. Open and should once again be a punishing test for the world’s best golfers. It was Dustin Johnson winning back in 2016 with a winning score of -4, and he was one of just four players to shoot under par for the week. This year’s field consists of all of the Top 10 and 48 of the Top 50 players in the DataGolf World Rankings.
Let’s jump in and take a look at the course, top stats, and some best bets for this week.
The Course: Oakmont Country Club
Oakmont Country Club is a Par 70 listed at 7,372 yards on the scorecard, which makes it one of the longest Par 70 courses the players will see all season. Three of the four Par 3 holes are over 200 yards, including the ridiculous Par 3, 8th hole that stretches out to 289 yards!! There are three Par 4’s that come in under 400 yards but have many challenges of their own, including bunkering, thick rough, and very fast Poa Annua greens. There are just two Par 4’s in the 400-450 yard range, with seven coming in over 450 yards. To cap it off, both Par 5’s are over 600 yards.
With the challenging fairway bunkers and nearly 5″ rough, bombing it on the long holes isn’t always going to be an option. It will be much more important to take your second shot from the fairway, and at times, that means laying back and relying more on accuracy. That then brings in one of the most important factors for the week, which will be long iron play. This is what will, in my opinion, separate the field as the week progresses. The average greens in regulation will likely be very low this week, which will put a lot of emphasis on short game, both with scrambling around the greens and putting on the fast Poa greens.
As with any major, but probably even more this week, golfers will need to have a sharp all-around game to not just make the cut but to compete for the hardware come Sunday afternoon. I will be looking for major championship performance, current form, and a stats profile that meets the criteria above.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving/Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Long Iron Proximity
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Putting on Poa Greens
- Current Form
- Major Championship Form
Here are the Top 10 in my overall model for this week:
- Scottie Scheffler
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Shane Lowry
- Collin Morikawa
- Xander Schauffele
- Patrick Cantlay
- Keegan Bradley
- Corey Conners
- Rory McIlroy
- Si Woo Kim
Best Bets: U.S. Open
Rory McIlroy Outright (+1200)
Of the top players entering the 2025 U.S. Open, it is Scheffler coming in with top form, which has separated him from Rory in terms of odds. This also creates a nice opportunity to get a double-digit number on Rory may not be coming in with great form, but is having a tremendous season of his own. He has three wins, including two high-profile victories at the Players Championship and the Masters. While it has been a minute since his last U.S. Open victory back in 2011, he has an excellent history with back-to-back runner-ups and Top 10 finishes in six straight. He checks almost every single box and is my favourite value at the top of the board this week.
Viktor Hovland Outright (+6000) / Top 10 (+450)
While Hovland has just one Top 10 on the season, it came in the form of a win at the Valspar. Despite the overall lack of top form that I am looking for, I love the value here based on his stats profile. In my model on my cheatsheet, he is 25th in SG: Ball Striking, 15th in Total Driving, and his long iron game is elite ranking 1st in the 175-200 range and 9th in the 200+ yard range. He also comes in hot with the putter, gaining strokes on the field in five of his last six events, and is a plus putter on Poa greens, as well. I will not only have exposure to the outright market but also love the Top 10 and will bet some matchups with him this week.
Corey Conners Outright (+6000) / Top 10 (+330)Â
He is coming off a disappointing 27th-place finish at his own national championship last week but checks almost all the boxes for me this week and, like Hovland, has a juicy outright number and more intriguing Top 10 number. Conners is one of the best ball strikers on tour, ranking 22nd in this field in SG: Ball Striking and 19th in Total Driving with emphasis on accuracy(6th). Speaking of accuracy, his long iron game also stands out as he is Top 25 in both proximity ranges I am focusing on this week. After a tough run at the U.S. Open over the years, he picked up his first Top 10 last season at Pinehurst #2 and is in a great spot to repeat that and possibly contend for to win the 2025 U.S. Open.
