As fantasy football managers, we are judged by what takes place on the field. The better your quarterback does, the more points you get. Sounds pretty simple, right? As much as the quarterback controls the game, they are still dependent on many other factors outside of their control. Coaching, their defense, game flow, the offensive line, and surrounding talent all come into play here. When looking towards the coming 2025 NFL season, there are some upside metrics we can consider in looking for which quarterback will take the next step.
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Upside Metrics: Quarterbacks
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts – Average Target Depth of 12.2 Yards
Is there a more divisive or frustrating quarterback than Anthony Richardson? The former first overall pick has a plethora of physical tools, but it hasn’t translated to NFL success. As Richardson enters his third NFL season, we should note that he’s only played 15 professional games. However, that limited playing time also means Richardson is starting to get the label as injury-prone, so it doesn’t exactly help his cause.
Entering 2025, the Colts brought Daniel Jones in to serve as competition for Richardson. While he did dislocate a pinky in his first preseason game, Richardson appears to be healthy to this point. From a physical standpoint, there really shouldn’t be much of a competition between Richardson and Jones. While I expect both to see the field this season, it’s hard not to give the edge to the former.
With an ADP of 176, Richardson is essentially free this season. Once we get to that point in the draft, it’s close to impossible to find a player with top-10 position upside as Richardson has. That’s assuming he stays healthy, and also weighs in his success on the ground. In 11 games last year, Richardson gained 499 yards while scoring six touchdowns on the ground.
However, that’s not the focus of my upside metrics. Granted, there’s a great deal of inconsistency here, but Richardson’s average depth of target of 12.2 yards is certainly intriguing. His sack rate of just 5% is another favorable metric that sets the stage for a big third season from Richardson.
Michael Penix, Atlanta Falcons, Average Target Depth of 10.7 Yards
It shouldn’t be surprising, but there’s a theme here. When looking at upside metrics and quarterbacks who could surpass their ADP, there are a few things we are looking to hit. We want youth, athleticism, and arm strength. In the case of Michael Penix, the second-year quarterback checks those boxes, and then some.
Entering his second NFL season, there are a few other factors working in Penix’s favor. He was able to ease into his professional career with Kirk Cousins sharing the quarterback room to help mitigate some of the learning curve.
Penix was then able to get into five games to generate momentum heading into 2025. He had one game of more than 300 passing yards and was able to work on building chemistry with the offense. In Drake London, Bijan Robinson, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts, there’s also a lot for Penix to work with. Zac Robinson also returns as offensive coordinator, and Penix went through the offseason as the starter.
When he was on the field, it was also clear Penix was looking for a big play. His average target depth of 10.7 yards seems to indicate that Penix will take full advantage of his receiving options. He just needs to work on his accuracy, but that’s normal for a young quarterback.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars, Average Target Depth of 9.2
It’s important to remember that Trevor Lawrence is still just 25 years old. Thus far in his NFL career, he has had some inconsistencies from the coaching and talent perspective. Entering 2025, that should change.
Lawrence’s head coach, Liam Cohen, comes with a lot of buzz when it comes to helping quarterbacks reach their full potential and upside. The fact that Lawrence also has an emerging superstar in Brian Thomas to throw the ball to also helps.
While Lawrence has failed to live up to expectations, he has had some moments of success as well. Lawrence’s 9.2 yards per average target speaks to his ability to work the ball down field and could lead to him breaking his career high of 4,113 yards.
For more great fantasy football rankings and analysis, make sure to check out the 2025 FantraxHQ Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
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