Welcome back, golf fans. After a birdie-fest at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson a week ago, the PGA Tour heads to Colonial Country Club for the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge. With its position a week before the Memorial and three weeks before the U.S. Open, this event sees a much weaker field with just two top 10 and 16 top 50 players in the Data Golf World Rankings.
In this article, we will preview the course, look at some top stats for the model, and then break down some golfers that offer value in the betting market.
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The Course: Colonial Country Club
Birdies will be much harder to come by this week as Colonial Annually ranks among the top 10 most difficult scoring courses on tour. It is a positional par 70 setup that sits at 7,289 yards on the initial scorecard. The four par 3’s are above-average difficulty as all of them come in over 190 yards. The par 4’s are much shorter than average, with nine of 12 coming in under 460 yards. With that, the importance of a strong mid-iron game gets elevated this week. Finally, with just two par 5’s this week, par 5 scoring gets a bit of a downgrade.
Stats & Trends That Matter: Finding the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge Champion
Top Stats:
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee/ Driving Accuracy – Colonial has some of narrowest fairways on tour and when combined with the doglegs and trees makes it a very positional course elevating the importance of accuracy.
- Strokes Gained: Approach/Mid-Iron Proximity – Iron play is the top stat in my model this week, and more specifically, the mid-iron proximity buckets with shorter than average par 4’s at Colonial
- Strokes Gained: Putting – The strongest putters or those trending in the short term usually find their way to the top of the leaderboard. I will also look at putting performance on Bentgrass greens.
Justin Thomas (+2600 Outright / +520 Top 5 / +265 Top 10)
Is Justin Thomas back? It sure appears that way as he has not only made seven straight cuts but has three straight top 25 finishes, including an impressive T4 at the PGA Championship. He has gained strokes off the tee in four straight, gained strokes on approach in three straight, and gained a whopping 10+ strokes putting over his last two events. His last win came at Harbour Town in 2025, which is another positional-type course, and he is #1 in this field in SG: Total on comp courses over the last three years. I will be going heavy on JT this week with a ladder bet.
Alex Smalley (+3600 Outright / +315 Top 10)
Smalley is still in search of his first career win, but it feels like he will break through very soon. He is easily having the best start to a season in his career, making 13 of 14 cuts with two runner-up finishes, including one two weeks ago at the PGA Championship. Over the last 24 rounds, he has displayed an elite profile ranking 8th in SG: Approach, 7th in Proximity from 150-200 yards, and 9th in SG: Putting. He also ranks 17th in this field in putting on Bentgrass greens over the last 24 rounds. Most of my exposure will come in the secondary market, but I will also throw some on the outright, as well.
Mac Meissner (+440 Top 10 / +205 Top 20)
After a rough stretch in mid-February/early March, Meissner has put together a very good stretch of golf recently. He has put together a streak of five straight events making the cut, which includes no finish worse than 30th with top 10’s at the Zurich Classic and Myrtle Beach. He has gained strokes on approach in three of his last four, around the green in four straight, and putting in three straight. Additionally, he ranks 4th in this field in SG: Total on comp courses. I don’t think he is going to be in the mix for a win, but I do like the secondary markets this week.
Andrew Novak (+540 Top 10 / +245 Top 20)
Another low-end value play that has seen his form trending in the right direction lately. Novak has finished 26th or better in two straight and four of his last six while gaining a total of 11.8 strokes ball striking (9.4 APP, 2.4 OTT). He also returns to Colonial with some nice course history, making the cut in two of three trips, including an impressive 11th last year. He fits the profile for this course and is 15th in this field in SG: Total on comp courses. I like the value in the secondary markets this week.
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