Welcome back, golf fans. Before we head to Shinnecock Hills for the U.S. Open next week, the PGA Tour makes a stop at TPC Toronto for Canada’s national championship. Normally a rotating venue, this year returns to TPC Toronto, which made its debut last year, marking the first time since 2018 when Glen Abbey hosted three years in a row. We are also treated to a plus field this year, led by three Top 10 players in Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, and Collin Morikawa.
In this article, we will preview the course and our stats model and then highlight a few players who will be on my bet card this week.
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The Course: TPC Toronto
For the second straight year, TPC Toronto will host the RBC Canadian Open. It is a Par 70 setup that is listed at 7,389 yards on the initial scorecard. It was built in 2001 but saw a large renovation in 2023 in preparation for this event. It played as a top 10 easiest scoring course in 2025, with Ryan Fox edging out Sam Burns in a playoff after both finished at -18, and in total, 35 players reached double-digit under par.
The setup starts with a nice balance of par 3 holes with two shorter ones (158, 144) and two longer ones (237, 225). The par 4’s are very interesting as there are two short ones under 400 yards, four between 400 and 450 yards, and six that come in over 480 yards, including four over 500 yards. The par 5’s are standard at 542 and 581 yards.
The fairways are generous, which created a much higher than average fairway rate last year (67%), which, in turn, also created a very high GIR rate (73%). The formula for success is a strong iron game and a hot putter.
Stats & Trends That Matter: Finding the 2026 RBC Canadian Open Champion
Top Stats:
- Strokes Gained: Approach/Long Iron Proximity –Â With generous fairways, I am looking at this week as a second shot golf course, putting iron play at the top of my model. With the two long par 3’s and some monster 500+ yard par 4’s, I will also be looking closely at the long iron proximity ranges.
- Par 4 Scoring –Â With any par 70 that has just two par 5’s, I like to look a little closer at par 4 scoring. This is heightened a little more this week with the difficulty of the par 4’s in regard to the four that come in over 500 yards in length.
- Birdie or Better % – The winning score a year ago hit -18 with Ryan Fox leading the way with 24 birdies. In total, there were 18 players who tallied 20 or more birdies.
Sam Burns (+1300 Outright / +270 Top 5)
Burns got us the top 5 last week and narrowly missed out on the win. I am jumping right back on board this week in Canada as he once again checks almost every box in the model. He has finished in the top 10 in three of four RBC Canadian Opens, including a runner-up last year here at TPC Toronto. He is an elite putter, and while he ranks 50th in this field in SG: Approach on the season, he ranked top 5 last week at the Memorial (+5.94) and has now gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven events. I will once again bet the outright and top 5.
Eric Cole (+4700 Outright / +800 Top 5 / +385 Top 10)
The hot streak continued last week with an 8th-place finish at the Memorial, which is also his fourth top 10 in his last five events. Over that time, he ranks 11th in SG Approach, 4th in SG: Around the Green, 1st in SG: Putting, and 1st in Birdie or Better %. He struggled here at TPC Toronto last year but comes in with much better form this time around, and fitting the model so well, I will have a ladder bet on him this week.
Aaron Rai (+4300 Outright / +710 Top 5 / +340 Top 10)
Another player I will be looking to ladder bet this week. Rai is coming in with excellent form with a T19 at the Memorial, a huge win at the PGA Championship, and 5th at the Myrtle Beach Classic. A strong iron game has been leading the way as he ranks, in this field, 4th in SG: Approach and 6th in SG: Tee to Green over the last 20 rounds. Outside of some up and down putting, he has gained strokes in every SG category in four straight events. This is his first trip to TPC Toronto, but he does have some excellent event history in Canada (14th, 3rd, 13th) in three trips. If he putts well this week, he should be in contention come the weekend.
Andrew Putnam (+270 Top 20)
I really like the Top 20 market this week with players further down the board, and leading the way is Andrew Putnam. He has finished in the Top 10 in each of his last two RBC Canadian Open starts, including a 6th here at TPC Toronto last year. The form has also been solid as he enters the week having made 10 straight cuts and has Top 20 finishes in three of his last six. He has a terrific short game and has been trending with the irons having gained strokes on approach in five of his last six events.
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