2026 Fantasy Football: Wait on Quarterback?

For me, it comes down to math. When you look at most fantasy football leagues, starting lineups include two running backs, three wide receivers, and a flex option. That means you are starting six skill position players each week. It also stands in strict contrast to just one quarterback. So, as we ask the age-old fantasy football question of whether you should wait on quarterback in your next draft, it becomes an issue of supply and demand.

Should You Wait on Quarterbacks in Your 2026 Fantasy Football Drafts?

Don’t worry, this didn’t turn into an economics class, but the theory is relevant, nonetheless. Stick with me here as we follow this thought process through, but I also want to begin with a disclaimer.

Josh Allen is projected to be the best quarterback in 2026. He’s already being drafted as such, and at his second/third round ADP, it’s a reasonable price point. However, you are likely better off leaving that to another team based on the opportunity cost that draft pick holds.

As we work down the line from Allen into the next two tiers of quarterbacks, the conversation becomes a little different. Yes, Drake Maye, Joe Burrow, Caleb Williams, and Jayden Daniels are better than Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Jaxson Dart, Jalen Hurts, and others, but by how much?

The other, and more important, question is how much better is the running back or wide receiver drafted in the fifth round than one drafted in the seventh, eighth, or ninth round? That’s the question that needs to be answered.

On a weekly basis, I’d argue the advantage that Maye has over Herbert is not going to be that large. It’s certainly not going to be as large as the difference between Bucky Irving or Bhayshul Tuten and Rhamondre Stevenson and Tony Pollard.

If we look at things another way, I’d expect the majority, if not all, of fantasy managers to favor the Herbert/Tuten side of a trade involving Maye and Pollard as the cost.

Another question would be, what if you are wrong with Herbert? The possibility of Maye or Herbert getting injured is likely the same. Based on draft cost, the risk involved with Maye is also higher than Herbert. Again, Maye is the better player, so the rankings make sense, but drafts are all about managing risk.

And back to the math we go. If we assume a 12-team league, that means out of 32 NFL teams, there are 12 quarterbacks starting each week and 20 either on benches or on the waiver wire. Of course, bye weeks do change this, but overall, in just about all situations, you should be able to find a suitable replacement.

With running backs specifically, that’s not going to be the case. To a lesser extent, the same applies to wide receivers. If we assume that six teams start a running back in flex and six start a wide receiver, that gives us a good start.

That means we have 30 running backs starting in fantasy lineups each week out of 32 NFL teams. It’s become very clear in today’s NFL that a lot of teams utilize some type of timeshare in their backfields. Picking the correct option isn’t always easy, and there’s a real difference once we get lower in the rankings. And bye weeks dilute things that much more.

From a wide receiver perspective, fantasy managers are starting 42 wide receivers each week. Yes, there are 64 “starting” receivers on NFL teams, but the volume isn’t necessarily allocated that way. The difference between the 20th and 35th receivers can become a little hairy.

When deciding when to draft a quarterback, it’s not about drafting the best quarterback in a vacuum. It’s about building the most balanced team and combining that with your running backs and wide receivers.

Ultimately, you need to follow your rankings. But from a roster construction standpoint, I want to fill my running back, wide receiver, and flex spots. Then, it’s time to attack the quarterback position. However, the depth is there, so you can then wait to follow your rankings.