Week 9 NFL Player Props

I got back to my winning ways last week, going 2-1 in player props. And at the risk of being that guy, my logic on the prop I lost was still solid. Hopefully that means that what occurred two weeks ago was a mere blip. But the only way to prove that is to stack winning weeks together. And I intend to do just that with my Week 9 NFL player props. As always, adjust all plays as you see fit, and play responsibly.

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Week 9 NFL Player Props

Malik Nabers, New York Giants: OVER 5.5 Receptions (-102, FanDuel)

Malik Nabers has caught at least six passes in five of seven games this year, including four in a row. That is even more impressive when you consider Nabers has already dealt with three starting quarterbacks. Regardless of who is under center, the mission is to target Nabers. That was true in New York’s most recent game, an overtime win in Houston. J.J. McCarthy targeted Nabers nine times on just 28 pass attempts. No other Giants player earned more than five looks. I do not see that strategy changing much this week against the Philadelphia Eagles. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Nabers was even more involved.

The Giants ran the ball 34 times in their victory against the Texans. Cam Skattebo and Tyrone Tracy Jr. accounted for 23 of those runs. New York already placed Tracy on injured reserve, which means he is out of action. Skattebo has not practiced since he hurt his hamstring in the last game. Devin Singletary is very likely the team’s lead back on Sunday. The Giants may need to rely on the pass more than usual given their lack of running back depth. Luckily for them, a matchup against the Eagles should let them do just that.

Philadelphia has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this year. That’s largely because they’ve allowed a high number of receptions to the position. The Eagles have ceded nearly 13 receptions per game to enemy wideouts. That is the third-highest number in the NFL. Considering how concentrated New York’s target tree is, Nabers is the player most likely to take advantage of that tendency. Nabers has caught 48 passes this year. The rest of New York’s wide receivers have combined for 27 grabs. I believe Malik Nabers will catch at least six more passes on Sunday.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts: OVER 13.5 Rush Attempts (-108, Caesars)

The game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Dallas Cowboys is a sad one for me as a Jets fan, because one of these teams (presumably) has to win. The good news is I have found a reason to be invested. I am banking on  Jonathan Taylor to surpass his rushing attempts.

I will concede that this number feels like a trap, and there is a non-zero chance that it is. As of this writing, Taylor is still the lead back for the Indianapolis Colts. The NFL Trade Deadline is this coming Tuesday, and Taylor is the big fish teams are trying to snag. Indianapolis may decide to limit Taylor’s workload rather than risk an injury if they are to trade him away. If that happens, I can live with it. Because if the Colts play this like a normal NFL game they are trying to win, there is no way Taylor isn’t a huge part of the game plan.

Indianapolis ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA and eighth in DVOA in terms of their rushing offense. They rank 30^th in both metrics as a passing offense. Dallas is equally bad against the pass (30^th in both metrics) and the run (29^th). But given how bad the Colts’ passing game is, they’ll need to run the ball to stay in this game. Taylor has carried the ball at least 15 games in seven of eight games this year. The only exception was last week’s game, which the Colts lost by 35 points. Indianapolis has played five games in which they either won outright or lost by less than 12 points. In those five games, Taylor has carried the ball 24, 23, 20, 21, and 18 times.

If you are scared off by a possible workload reduction due to a potential trade, you can ladder Seth McGowan’s rushing yards instead. DraftKings has him at +3300 to rush for 100 yards, and they have his other thresholds priced favorably, too. McGowan rushed for 46 yards two weeks ago against Minnesota, whose run defense is considerably better than Dallas’s.

Jordan Mason, Minnesota Vikings: UNDER 12.5 First Quarter Rushing Yards (-110, Caesars)

My final Week 9 NFL player prop pick is one in a niche market. I am going against Jordan Mason of the Minnesota Vikings to exceed his first-quarter rushing yardage total on Monday night against the Buffalo Bills. Not every book offers this, so you may need to adjust based on the options you have. But I’m targeting the first quarter with Mason because Aaron Jones usually starts for Minnesota. The pair have generally alternated drives since Mason returned two weeks ago, especially early in games. In those two outings, Mason carried the ball twice in the first quarter. The matchup isn’t the cupcake variety many associate with the Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo ranks ninth in the NFL in yards per carry against opposing running backs this season. They are currently 10^th in total rushing yards allowed and 12^th in adjusted line yards given up per carry. In fairness, their underlying metrics are somewhat less favorable. The Bills rank 19^th in DVOA and 22^nd in EPA against the run. However, considering Minnesota’s recent deployment of their running back duo to start games, I think there is value in fading Mason’s first-quarter output. As with most picks, this is more about the process than anything. If Mason only carries the ball once or twice but happens to break one, so be it. But given low expected early usage and a middling matchup, I am betting against Jordan Mason in the first quarter on Monday night.

Make sure to check out all of our Week 9 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!