With the only team event in the rearview mirror, the PGA Tour heads to McKinney, Texas, for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. This will be the fifth year in a row the Byron Nelson will be played at TPC Craig Ranch and the second straight as the CJ Cup event. Buckle up for some low scores as this event plays as the easiest course on Tour in terms of scoring average, almost three strokes below the field average. All four previous winners have reached a winning score of -23 or better.
This years field is a little soft overall sandwiched between multiple majors and signature events but is headlined by World #1, Scottie Scheffler. Sungjae Im and Tom Kim join Scheffler as the only other players ranked inside the Top 25 of the DataGolf World Rankings.
Let’s jump in and take a look at the course, top stats, and some best bets for this week.
The Course: TPC Craig Ranch
Like I mentioned above, this course has produced the lowest average score of any course on tour. It is a bomber’s paradise as a Par 71 listed a 7, 569 yards on the scorecard and presents golfers with wide open fairways, non-penal rough, and large greens. If you aren’t bombing it down the fairway, you better be on with the long irons as there are seven par 4s over 450 yards and five over 490 yards. With some of the easiest scoring conditions on tour, Birdie or Better % is definitely at the top of my model with Driving Distance, Good Drive %, overall SG: Approach, and Proximity from 200+ yards not far behind.
With all that said, here are the Top 10 in my overall model for this week:
- Scottie Scheffler
- Keith Mitchell
- Taylor Pendrith
- Stephan Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jake Knapp
- Si Woo Kim
- Will Zalatoris
- Taylor Moore
- Ryan Gerard
Best Bets: CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Taylor Pendrith Outright (+3000) / Top 10 (+260)
Pendrith returns to TPC Craig Ranch looking for a repeat performance of 2024, when he hoisted the trophy. He was one of just eight players to gain strokes in all categories, was one of just four players with multiple eagles on the week, and tallied just three bogies over the four rounds(3rd fewest). He comes in with some up and down form, but that doesn’t scare me off as he came into last year’s Byron Nelson missing five of seven cuts. He fits the stats model ranking 1st in SG: Off the Tee, 4th in SG: Ball Striking, 28th in Driving Distance, and can close out the deal with the 12th best final round scoring average in this field. I am most confident in the Top 10 bet but will also be getting in on the +3000 outright, as well.
Jake Knapp Outright (+5500) / Top 10 (+450) / Top 20 (+200)
Missed cuts in two of his last three events have probably contributed to this very enticing number that I am jumping on this week. The reason it doesn’t concern me a whole lot is the form and consistent game that surrounds those two bad tournaments. The missed cut at the Valspar Championship was preceded by four straight Top 25 finishes and seven straight made cuts going back to the Farmers Insurance Open back in February. He also stands out in my stats model, ranking 25th in Driving Distance, 14th in Proximity from 200+ yards, and 5th in Birdie or Better %. He finished 8th here last year, and I feel he has the game to grab another Top 10 and contend for a second career win.
Alejandro Tosti Outright (+8000) / Top 10 (+600) / Top 20 (+320)
In 2024, Tosti recorded a runner-up and two total Top 10s across 28 events. Through 12 events in 2025, he already has three Top 10s, two of which have come in his last three stroke-play events. He missed the cut here last year by a stroke, but fits the model and has a good shot at being a fantastic value this week. He ranks(in this field) 6th in SG: Tee to Green, 3rd in Driving Distance, and 15th in Birdie or Better % on the season. I will place a smaller bet on the outright as a longshot, but definitely prefer the Top 10 and Top 20 props the most.
