Following another exciting Players Championship, the PGA Tour heads to the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort for the final event of the Florida swing. Following two core events in The Players Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational, the field is understandably weaker this week but still fairly solid. This is true at the top where the event is headlined by three of the World’s Top 10 golfers including Xander Schauffele(#3), Tommy Fleetwood(#9), and Justin Thomas(#10).
Let’s jump in and take a look at the course, top stats, and some best bets for this week.
The Course:
Another tough test for players as the Copperhead Course sits inside the Top 10 in terms of most difficult courses on the regular schedule when looking at scoring average. It is a tree-lined Par 71 that is listed at 7,352 yards on the scorecard and like other Florida courses, has water lurking on a lot of holes(9). It is another positional test off the tee due to the trees, heavier rough, and water dangers. With that, we will once again see a heavy dose of “less than driver” strategies in hopes of finding as many fairways as possible. Even with that strategy the average driving accuracy(58%) is still slightly below tour average.
On approach, golfers will be challenged by doglegs which can bring the trees into play if not perfect off the tee and the greens are also protected by a ton of strategic bunkering. Looking at approach accuracy, the Copperhead course has the third-lowest GIR rate(57%) on tour making Strokes Gained: Approach very important as it will be an area a golfer can leapfrog the field if his irons are on point.
Anytime we see a lot of missed greens at an event, it brings Strokes Gained: Around the Green way up the key stats rankings. I will also break that down and look specifically at Sand Save %, as well.
Key stats and trends in my model:
- Fairways Gained
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Proximity from 175-200 & 200+ yard ranges
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Sand Save %
- Course History
- Strokes Gained: Florida Swing
- Less than Driver performance
With all that said, here are the Top 10 in my overall model for this week:
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Justin Thomas
- Shane Lowry
- Sepp Straka
- Michael Kim
- Lucas Glover
- Alex Smalley
- Keith Mitchell
- Corey Conners
- Bud Cauley
Best Bets: Valspar Championship
Sepp Straka Outright (+2200)
In a weaker field this week I was quite surprised to see Straka’s number coming outside of 20-1. I get he returns to the Valspar Championship with poor course history(MC, 46th) but he is easily coming into the event with his best form yet. He picked up his 3rd career win at the American Express back in January and since the start of the season has made eight of nine cuts with seven of those finishes inside the Top 15.
Straka also fits the model statistically ranking(in this field) 7th in SG: tee to green, 4th in SG: approach, 9th in driving accuracy, 2nd in overall proximity, 6th in both par 4 and 5 scoring, 9th in bogey avoidance, and 4th in birdie or better %. Digging deeper into some trends in my custom model, he is 5th in SG: total on the Florida swing, 8th in SG: total in difficult scoring conditions, and 3rd in events using heavy less than driver strategy. Highlighting his iron play, he has gained a whopping four or more strokes on approach in five of his last six events.
Put it all together and I love the value with Straka getting his second win of the season this week.
Corey Conners Outright (+2500)
I will be starting my betcard this week with two players in the 20’s range and up next is Corey Conners who is also checking almost every box. After a missed cut at the Sony Open and underwhelming finishes at Pebble Beach(65th) and Phoenix(74th), he has found his game in Florida. It started with a T24 at the Genesis Invitational and he has followed that up with back to back Top 10’s at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the PLAYERS Championship where he gained strokes across the board in both those events.
His strength is off the tee where he is 17th in overall SG: off the tee and 14th in driving accuracy on the season. He has also been strong in other areas lately ranking 12th in SG: around the green, 15th in SG: putting, and 4th in par 4 scoring over the last 12 rounds. Unlike Straka, Conners returns to the Copperhead course with some history picking up a 16th in 2019 and 21st in 2021.
Look for Conners to close out the Florida swing strong and contend for a win.
Max McGreevy Top 10 (+800) / Top 20 (+325)
While I don’t think McGreevy is ready for his first career PGA Tour win, I do love the form and will be betting him in both the Top 10 and Top 20 markets. After three straight missed cuts at the Sony Open, American Express, and WM Phoenix Open he has turned it around making four straight cuts including three Top 25’s and a very impressive T4 at the Cognizant Classic. The ball striking has been straight fire over that stretch as he ranks 5th in SG: off the tee, 7th in fairways gained, and 6th in SG: approach. The course history hasn’t been great here with a missed cut in 2023 and 48th in 2022 but he is easily coming in with his best form.
