Welcome back, golf fans. After weeks of back-to-back elevated events, the spotlight now shifts to the year’s second major championship. Unlike the Masters, the venue for the PGA Championship rotates annually, and this year heads to the Aronimink Golf Club, which is no stranger to big events. It last hosted the PGA Championship in 1962, has hosted a Senior PGA and Women’s PGA Championship, was the host of the 2010 and 2011 AT&T National, and most recently, hosted the 2018 BMW Championship during the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
In this article, we will preview the course, look at some stats and trends that stand out as most important, and then highlight some players who fit that model best. Let’s dig in.
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The Course: Aronimink Golf Club
The trend in previous PGA Championship venues in recent years has been length, as four of the last five have exceeded 7,550 yards. Aronimink breaks that trend at just 7,394 yards but is still the second-longest par-70 course on the 2026 schedule.
The course is a Donald Ross design originally that took on a a restoration project headed by Gil Hanse in 2017, ahead of the course hosting the 2018 BMW Championship. The course features four par 3’s, three of which are over 200 yards. The Par 4’s are mostly mid-tier in terms of distance except for the 490-yard 18th hole and monster 546-yard 15th hole. The par 5’s come in at 605 and 555 yards.
Off the tee, the biggest defense of a straight-bomber strategy is the numerous fairway bunkers and rough expected to be grown out more than in the 2018 BMW Championship. That event saw both Keegan Bradley and Justin Rose hit -20, with 32 total players reaching double digits under par. I have to believe the PGA does not want that to happen this time around during a major championship. To help combat that, they likely have the greens running very fast after already being difficult with almost no flat putts.
Stats & Trends That Matter: Finding the 2026 PGA Championship Winner
Top Stats:
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking – Elite ball strikers will have the best shot at contending at this major championship venue. Off the tee, I am looking for a similar profile as we looked at the last two weeks, concentrating on driving distance with the addition of average to above-average accuracy. I will be weighing SG: Approach at the top this week and the proximity buckets will depend on the player and how long they are off the tee.
- Strokes Gained: Putting – The greens are likely to be the biggest defense of the scoring going really low, so I want players who are overall above-average putters but also trending in recent weeks
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Sand Save % – I am expecting the overall GIR rate to be in the mid 50% range this week, which puts emphasis on getting up and down, and with all the bunkers in play, sand save % will also get a boost in the model
- Major Championship Form – Majors play differently and not just from a difficult course/scoring conditions perspective. It also takes a very strong mental game to keep your head in it for four rounds
Scottie Scheffler (+375 Outright)
I don’t like betting outrights in golf this low, but I think we need to find a way to get some exposure to Scheffler this week, even if in a parlay. He only has one win on the season, which seems weird for him, but he is coming off three straight runner-up finishes at the Cadillac Championship, RBC Heritage, and the Masters. During those events, he ranks 1st in SG: Ball Striking, 3rd in SG: Approach, 6th in SG: Around the Green, and 23rd in SG: Putting. He has been dominant at the majors, finishing 7th or better in six straight and eight of nine, including three wins since the start of the 2024 season. He shows up at the biggest events, and that is the main reason he is #1 in the world.
Cameron Young (+1600 Outright/ +300 Top 5)
Hard not to include Young on your bet card this week. He already has two wins on the season (Cadillac Championship, Players Championship) with six total Top 10 finishes in 10 events. He has been elite in every area, ranking #1 in SG Tee to Green, #1 in SG: Ball Striking, 6th in SG: Around the Green, and 23rd in SG: Putting over the last 24 rounds. Like I have highlighted several times already this season, he is elite when looking at total driving with his combination of elite length off the tee and above-average accuracy. After winning big events on tour, the only thing left to do is become a major champion, and he has been close with Top 5’s in two of his last three.
Justin Rose (+4700 Outright/ +350 Top 10)
Rose checks a lot of boxes this week and is one of the few players in this field to play all three events held at this course since the start of 2010. He won the AT&T National in 2010 and lost in a playoff at the 2018 BMW Championship. That aligns nicely with his track record at majors recently, as he has tallied five finishes of 16th or better in his last eight majors, including two runner-ups and a third-place finish at the Masters less than a month ago. He hasn’t looked great at the last two signature events, but was tremendous at the Masters (3rd) and Players Championship (T13). I like the outright number, but will have most of my exposure in the Top 10 market.
Nicolai Højgaard (+230 Top 20)
Hojgaard appears to be peaking at the right time and has looked the part of an up-and-coming star. He picked up his second runner-up finish in his last five events last week at the Truist Championship on the back of an elite tee to green game and bounce back putting performance after three straight events losing strokes on the green. He is top 10 in Driving Distance in this field, to go along with an elite iron game and above-average short game. I don’t think he is ready to be in full contention on Sunday, but I like the number on a top 20 finish this week.
Russell Henley (+680 Top 5/ +350 Top 10)
The fact that the course is a little more positional with less length automatically boosts Henley in my model. It also helps that he has finished in the Top 10 in three straight major championships, where his elite short game comes into play in a big way. He is coming off a T49 at the Cadillac Championship, but that wasn’t exactly a course fit for him. Before that, he had tallied Top 25 finishes in five of his previous seven events with two top 10 finishes.
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