The final leg of the Florida Swing takes the PGA Tour to Palm Harbor and Innisbrook Resort for the 2026 Valspar Championship. Despite having to follow the signature event at Bay Hill and PLAYERS Championship last week, there is still a pretty good field teeing it up this week. Leading the way are three of the Top(Ben Griffin, Xander Schauffele, Matt Fitzpatrick) and nine of the Top 25 players in the DataGolf World Rankings.
With another tough test ahead, let’s jump in and preview the course and go over the stats that matter.
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The Course: Innisbrook Resort & Golf Club
Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course is a par 71 measuring 7,352 yards, making it the fifth-longest course on Tour this season and the second-longest among par-71 layouts. Like the other Florida courses we’ve seen during the swing, Copperhead consistently plays difficult, annually ranking among the top 10 toughest courses on Tour in scoring average. The average winning score over the last 10 years sits at -12.
The challenge begins off the tee with narrow fairways guarded by bunkers, water, and thick rough. Even with many players opting for less than driver, driving accuracy still falls well below the Tour average. Combine that with a heavy dose of long-iron approaches and Copperhead annually produces one of the lowest GIR rates on Tour, as well. Adding to the importance of long iron approaches is five Par 3’s on the course, all of which are over 195 yards in length.
Stats & Trends That Matter: Finding the 2026 Valspar Championship Best Bets
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Just like the other Florida courses, the importance of ball striking is paramount this week. Breaking it down, I am leaning more accuracy than distance off the tee and on approach, I am adding additional weight on approaches from the 200+ yard range.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+1600 Outright / +305 Top 5)
The number has moved fast as he was +2000 first thing Monday morning. Props if you got on it early but I am still game at the current number, as well. He is coming off a runner-up finish at the Players where he gained strokes across the board in the Strokes Gained categories and was 8th in ball striking. Looking at the 2026 stats, Fit is 3rd in this field in SG: Ball Striking and is one of just two players in the field to rank Top 10 in both SG: Off the Tee and Approach. He also has been very good with the long irons, ranking 17th in this field from 200+ yards, sits Top 10 in both par 4 and par 5 scoring, and is ranked #1 in SG: Putting on Bermuda greens over the last 24 rounds.
Brooks Koepka (+2600 Outright / +630 Top 5 / +315 Top 10)
After an expected slow start(T56, MC) in his return to the PGA Tour, Koepka has looked much better during the Florida swing. He finished T9 at the Cognizant and is coming off a T13 last week at the Players. The driving force has been ball striking as he has gained strokes in that department in all four events, including a season-high 2.1 last week. On the season, he is 2nd in this field in SG: Ball Striking and is 7th in Proximity from 200+ yards. The putter has also gotten a lot more reliable over the last two events and will be the key to him getting back in the winner’s circle. I want to get on the outright numbers in this range before they drift up even further, should his hot form continue.
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
A very low GIR rate here at the Copperhead course leads to a higher amount of scrambling, and this can be the difference between par and bogeys or worse!
Justin Thomas (+2300 Outright / +290 Top 10)
After a rough return to action at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, JT bounced back last week in an even bigger event, placing T8 at the Players Championship. It’s a small sample size, and he doesn’t register yet, but has now gained an average of .89 strokes around the green, which would tie him for 1st with Tommy Fleetwood. That checks out as he has finished 27th and 3rd in SG: Around the Green over the last two seasons. It was also awesome to see him gaining strokes with his irons last week, and he also gained 1.1 strokes putting. Perfect timing to get into form as JT returns to the Copperhead course, where he has finished 13th or better in four of his last five trips, including a runner-up last season.
Sahith Theegala (+3700 Outright / +385 Top 10 / +176 Top 20)
Theegala has not only been consistent to start the season, making all eight cuts in 2026, he has also flashed upside with three Top 10’s and five Top 25 finishes. The consistency comes from an elite around the green game as he ranks 20th on tour and 8th in this field in SG: Around the green(6th in Scrambling, 28th in Sand Save %). The upside comes from a strong iron game, gaining strokes on approach in five of his last six events, ranking 15th in this field. Finally, he ranks 18th or better in Par 3, 4, and 5 scoring, is 9th in Bogey Avoidance, and 16th in Birdie or Better. I prefer the Top 10 and Top 20 bets but will also have a half unit on the outright.
Strokes Gained: Putting/Bermuda Putting Performance
Jacob Bridgeman (+2300 Outright / +260 Top 10)
Almost no one has gotten off to a hotter start than Bridgeman in 2026. He has opened the season with his first career win(Genesis Invitational), four Top 10’s, and has finished Top 25 in all seven starts. The strength of his game has been the flat stick as he leads the Tour in SG: Putting, gaining an average of 1.4 strokes per round on the greens. When it comes to Bermuda greens, he has been terrific there as well, gaining strokes putting in eight straight rounds on Bermuda, and is 24th in this field in SG: Putting on the grass type over the last 12 rounds. He missed the cut here in his first trip in 2024, but showed his upside last year, finishing 3rd. I am betting on him to continue the hot start and contend for a 2nd win.
Ricky Castillo (+550 Top 10 / +240 Top 20)
After tallying just two top 10 finishes in 2025, Castillo is off to a fantastic start this year with a win, two Top 5’s, and he has made the cut in all six events. Where he really stands out this week is with the putter and, more specifically, on Bermuda greens. He lost strokes in the final round at the Cognizant, but prior to that, he had gained strokes putting on Bermuda in 13 straight and 19 of his last 21 rounds going back to March of last season. After a poor performance(T70) in the Players’ elite field last week, I am looking for Castillo to get back on track at the Copperhead course, a place he finished 12th last year.
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