As the fantasy baseball season barrels towards the All-Star Game in one month, many players are starting to show who they are in 2025. With almost three complete months of data, each player’s fantasy performance is starting to become less fluky and more representative. Is there still time for a player to adjust? Of course, but we can start to get a clearer picture of who is overvalued and undervalued in 2025 fantasy baseball.
Based on early performance, team usage, and changes to a player’s approach or mechanics, it’s already clear some players were undervalued in fantasy baseball draft rooms while others appear to have been overvalued.
This weekly piece will look at the past week to two weeks of fantasy baseball performances to see who should be considered overvalued and undervalued going forward. When necessary, I will reference the Fantrax top 500 rotisserie rankings for the 2025 fantasy baseball season.
(Stats are up to date as of June 16)
Undervalued Fantasy Baseball Assets
Brandon Lowe (1B/2B – TBR)
Second base has been quite the adventure in fantasy baseball this season. Mookie Betts is still great, but Ketel Marte and Jazz Chisholm Jr. have been hurt. Jose Altuve is slumping. Marcus Semien and Matt McLain can’t hit. Nico Hoerner and Luis Arraez have zero power. That leaves room for guys like Maikel Garcia and Tampa Bay’s Brandon Lowe to lead the position. Despite being drafted after pick 200 in spring drafts, Lowe is a top-three second baseman with a .260 average, 14 home runs, 39 RBI, and two steals.
At 30 years old, Lowe has career highs in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. His barrel rate is the highest it has been since the shortened COVID seasons. As a reward. Lowe hits second most days for Tampa Bay. In the last seven days, he is the 30th-ranked fantasy asset in rotisserie leagues. Under-the-hood indicators like BABIP and contact rate are all where they should be for a player like this so this does not seem to be driven by luck. Brandon Lowe was just severely underrated by all of us before the season.
TJ Friedl (OF – CIN)
Cincinnati Reds outfielder TJ Friedl is on pace for a very strong season where he will hit over .290 with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He is also tracking towards more than 100 runs. Looking at those numbers (.290, 20 homers, 20 steals, 100 runs), only Bobby Witt Jr., Aaron Judge, and Shohei Ohtani were able to reach all of those numbers last season. Perhaps you have heard of them. At this rate, Friedl is going to be a fourth or fifth-round pick in drafts next year, after he went around pick 249 in 2025 drafts.
Cincinnati’s patience with Friedl at the leadoff spot is now paying dividends as he has a 12.5% walk rate, just a 15.5% strikeout rate, and a 23% line drive rate. As the summer months heat up in Cincinnati, this offense that gets to play half of its games at Great American Ball Park should really start to take off. It’s one of the best hitter’s parks in the majors, and Friedl should be a strong table setter for them all season.
Andrew Abbott (SP – CIN)
Speaking of Cincinnati and their hitter-friendly ballpark, one pitcher has not seemed to care how conducive the park is to allowing runs. Andrew Abbott reaches mid-June with a 6-1 record after 11 starts, plus a 1.87 ERA and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The 26-year-old pitcher also has a career-best in walk rate (2.8 per nine) and home run rate (0.86 per nine). He is finally putting everything together in his third year in the league, and now the only hurdle to pass is the one that puts him past last year’s total of 138 innings pitched.
There has been some luck involved in Abbott’s performances this season, if we are being realistic. His .227 BABIP is a career-low, and his 7.2% home run per flyball rate is simply laughable. But with more than a strikeout per inning and plenty of soft contact allowed, Abbott is making his own luck as he truly breaks out this season.
Overvalued Fantasy Baseball Assets
Logan O’Hoppe (C – LAA)
No one is catching Cal Raleigh, who hit his 27th home run on Tuesday night, but take a guess at who is second among all catchers in home runs this season. That’s right, it is Logan O’Hoppe, a master of hitting baseballs hard, but not much else. His 14 home runs are the same as players like Matt Olson and Francisco Lindor, but the rest of O’Hoppe’s profile is so far away from players like that, he might as well be playing a different game.
Logan O’Hoppe has brought a .226 average and just 21 runs along with those 14 home runs. His 31 RBI are tied for eighth at the position, and he is an absolute zero in the speed department. The other problem for O’Hoppe this year is that his worst trait – strikeouts – has somehow gotten worse. He is striking out 33% of the time this year compared to just a 3.6% walk rate. Statcast numbers back this up, but I think he might be a little better going forward. His .240 expected batting average hopefully can lead to more power, but for now, this is very much a one-trick pony at catcher.
Corey Seager (SS – TEX)
Corey Seager has managed to avoid another IL stint for the past two weeks, so that should be commended. The rest of his offense this season? Not so much. It’s easy to place the blame for his recent poor play on the injury history this season, but the truth is, there are starting to be some cracks in his offensive armor as Seager plays in his age-31 season.
Seager’s once-awesome overall line is now crumbling under the injuries and inconsistencies. He is down to just .238/.329/.391 with six home runs and nary a steal. Seager has not played in more than 123 games since 2022, and the miles of the last 10 seasons are starting to catch up with him. So far, he has missed about 25 games this season, and there is certainly reason to believe it could be more.
Overall, Seager will be a nice source of power and average when and if (and that’s a BIG “if”) he is healthy. But Seager was selected around pick 45 in the spring during draft season. This is too much volatility for a player who should be one of a handful of cornerstones of a fantasy team’s offense.
