It’s tough to call any fantasy baseball players overvalued or undervalued just five weeks into the 2025 season. No team has played more than about 20 percent of their games, and sample sizes are very small compared to what we normally need to make long-term judgments on players.
However, based on early performance, team usage, and changes to a player’s approach or mechanics, it’s already clear some players were undervalued in fantasy baseball draft rooms while others appear to have been overvalued.
This weekly piece will look at the past seven days of fantasy baseball performances to see who should be considered overvalued and undervalued going forward. When necessary, I will reference the Fantrax top 500 rotisserie rankings for the 2025 fantasy baseball season.
Undervalued Fantasy Baseball Assets
(Stats are up to date as of May 5)
Wilyer Abreu (OF – BOS)
The Boston Red Sox have had a tumultuous beginning to the season as far as their offense is concerned. Masataka Yoshida and Triston Casas are injured. Rafael Devers had a historically bad start to the year. Players like Romy Gonzalez and David Hamilton are playing big roles.
But one constant has been the strong play of Wilyer Abreu. Through 34 games, Abreu is hitting .274/.394/.523 with seven home runs, four steals, 22 RBI, and a 16% walk rate. He is batting fifth in the Red Sox order behind Alex Bregman and Kristian Campbell, so the run production opportunities have been there.
Abreu has cut his strikeout rate from 28% in 2024 to 22% this season and has bumped up his fly ball rate by seven percentage points. Overall, Abreu is a top-45 hitter in rotisserie formats and is enjoying a true breakout season at age 25.
Geraldo Perdomo (SS – ARI)
While Wilyer Abreu’s top-45 status is fantastic, it actually doesn’t come close to Geraldo Perdomo, who is currently a top-20 hitter in baseball with a .293 average, five home runs, nine steals, and 29 RBI. Even though he primarily bats in the bottom third of Arizona’s order, Perdomo has become a fantasy star.
After going 4-for-5 with two steals, two doubles, and three RBI on Sunday, Perdomo officially entered the top echelon of fantasy batters. Also 25 years old, Perdomo is having a career year as he enters his prime seasons. His walk rate is up to 16%. His strikeout rate is down to just 11%. And he has added five percentage points to his hard-hit rate this year.
You can also blame Perdomo for single-handedly keeping uber-prospect Jordan Lawlar down in the minor leagues so far this year. Perdomo was thought to be a placeholder or utility player until Lawlar is ready, but Arizona now simply has to keep playing him every day.
Bryan Woo (SP –SEA)
When pitchers like George Kirby and Logan Gilbert both go on the IL in the first month of the season, that is usually what dominates the conversation about a team’s rotation. However, Bryan Woo is looking to change that with how well he is pitching for Seattle in his first 38 innings. All he has done is win four games, post a 2.58 ERA and 0.83 WHIP, and strike out 38 batters.
Those numbers put him right on the line of the top ten pitchers in fantasy baseball this year. Only six pitchers have at least 20 innings pitched and a WHIP under 0.90, and Woo is one of them. He has cut down the use of his fastball this season in favor of more sliders and sinkers. And it’s absolutely working. His strikeout rate and home run rate are the best they have been across his three professional seasons.
Overvalued Players
Junior Caminero (3B – TBR)
In the 2025 preseason, Junior Caminero, the Rays’ top young player, was a top-75 pick in drafts. However, in the last six weeks, Caminero has not lived up to that lofty status and ranks around number 300 among fantasy hitters. Caminero is stuck with a .240 average and just middling power numbers with six home runs and 13 RBI.
While sometimes a player might have a variety of things that contribute to poor production, Caminero’s struggles seem to point to one thing. His launch angle – a key indicator of potential power – is just 4.7 degrees. Caminero simply can’t get the ball in the air, which has caused his groundball rate to spike up to 54%.
If he can’t consistently get the ball in the air this year, there is no way Caminero can live up to the high expectations projection systems gave him at the beginning of the season.
Bryan Reynolds (OF – PIT)
On Tuesday night, Bryan Reynolds went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts, continuing a streak of disappointing games in a disappointing and underwhelming season. Often thought of as a high batting average addition to a team, Reynolds is hitting just .224 this season. The five homers and three steals help fantasy teams a little bit, but most of his value comes from his average.
What’s odd is that his swing rate has stayed constant since last year. His contact rate and zone contact rate have actually gone up. His hard contact rate is up as well. All that looks to be off is an oversized 50% ground ball rate. He is 43% for his career, and needs to start getting back to his normal 23% line drive rate to drive the batting average back up.
Dylan Cease (SP – SDP)
I have had Dylan Cease’s name earmarked for this spot in the column for three weeks, but waited until now to use him because I held out hope as long as possible that he would turn his (admittedly early) season around. There is still plenty of time to do just that, but the warning signs are flashing bright red right now.
Back before Dylan Cease was a star, he was walking 4.3 batters per nine innings in 2019 and 5.25 per nine in 2020. He largely fixed that issue for three of the last four seasons and put up 11 strikeouts per nine innings to go along with it. This season, he is back over four strikeouts per nine and has a 5.61 ERA despite only allowing 0.8 home runs per nine innings.
He has some unlucky numbers as well (.375 BABIP against and 63% left-on-base percentage), but the walks are the killers. Dylan Cease has to get them under control.
