As the fantasy baseball season barrels towards the All-Star Game in one month, many players are starting to show who they are in 2025. With more than three complete months of data, each player’s fantasy performance is starting to become less fluky and more representative. Is there still time for a player to adjust? Of course, but we can start to get a clearer picture of who is overvalued and undervalued in 2025 fantasy baseball.
Based on early performance, team usage, and changes to a player’s approach or mechanics, it’s already clear some players were undervalued in fantasy baseball draft rooms while others appear to have been overvalued.
This weekly piece will look at the past week to two weeks of fantasy baseball performances to see who should be considered overvalued and undervalued going forward. When necessary, I will reference the Fantrax top 500 rotisserie rankings for the 2025 fantasy baseball season.
(Stats are up to date as of July 1)
More great Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire | Weekly SP Rankings | Pitching Streamers | Two-Start Pitchers | Hitting Planner | Lineup Analysis | MLB Injury Report | Risers and Fallers | Prospect Report | Advanced Stats | Under the Radar | Overvalued & Undervalued
Undervalued Fantasy Baseball Assets
Riley Greene (OF – DET)
There are two players in Major League Baseball this season who are hitting at least .295, have at least 20 doubles, and at least 28 home runs. One of them is Aaron Judge. The other is none other than Riley Greene. Greene is at .296/.348/.529 this season and is seventh in the league with 63 RBI. It’s safe to say he has been one of the best valued hitters in all of fantasy baseball this year. He was drafted around pick 100 in the spring drafts, and now we all look foolish for waiting on him.
Greene is having a career year for barrel rate, launch angle, and max exit velocity. All of those numbers look elite and support Riley’s breakout this year, despite being only 24 years old. The one thing we have to worry about with Greene is strikeouts. He has 104 strikeouts on the season, the third-highest mark in the league this season. But his called plus swinging strike rate this year is down from last year, so some of the high strikeouts from the last month might fade away in the summer months.
This is a legit breakout and superstar-making year for Riley Greene.
Seiya Suzuki (OF – CHC)
There was some concern heading into 2025 about Seiya Suzuki. He missed almost 30 games with injuries last season. He struck out almost 28% of the time. And Seiya Suzuki is now on the wrong side of 30. However, after a career-high of just 21 home runs before this season started, Suzuki has found the power stroke, and he now has 22 home runs in about half a season. The Cubs don’t have a permanent place in their outfield to stick Suzuki, so they asked him to DH. He is, and the results have been phenomenal.
Suzuki, for the first time, has a hard-hit rate over 50% this season and has a 92.7 miles per hour average exit velocity. After three years in MLB, he is finally healthy and making connections on what he needs to be doing to become an elite power hitter. A total of over 40 home runs is certainly in play the rest of the season for Suzuki.
Drew Rasmussen (TBR – CIN)
Drew Rasmussen had perhaps the worst game of his season on Monday night, when he didn’t even make it into the fourth inning against the Athletics, one of the worst teams in baseball right now. But that should not overshadow how incredible Rasmussen has been this season. Before Sunday, he pitched at least five innings in 16 straight starts, which has led to a 2.78 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and seven wins in his first 17 games. The 74 strikeouts are nice in 87 innings, but that’s not why you roster Drew Rasmussen.
Rasmussen’s ground ball rate is up over 50% this season, and his home run per nine innings rate is just 0.93. Keeping the ball on the ground instead of out of the park is a recipe for a good season, particularly since Tampa Bay plays in a new stadium this year, which is not as conducive to the great pitching environments of Tropicana Field. Rasmussen is already on pace to cruise past the 11 wins that is his career high. If he finishes with 15 wins, he will go down as one of the best pitcher picks in the entire 2025 fantasy draft season.
Overvalued Fantasy Baseball Assets
Jarren Duran (OF – BOS)
Those fantasy managers waiting for the 2024 version of Jarren Duran to show up sometime this season might be waiting an awfully long time. After crushing fantasy baseball with a .285/.342/.492 line with 21 home runs, 34 steals, and 111 RBI last year, all arrows were pointing up for Duran heading into his age-28 season. But more than halfway through 2025 now, Duran isn’t on pace to match or break any of those numbers from last season. Duran is hitting only .253 and is on pace for just 12 home runs and 30 stolen bases this season.
Many people have pointed to some of Duran’s numbers from 2024, stating that the metrics showed it was a fluky season. He had an expected batting average of .271 and an expected slugging percentage of .448, both well below where he finished. Duran’s BABIP was about 60 points above the league average, and his home run per flyball rate was the highest of his career at 11.7%. Duran is a nice player with a lot of speed. But he is not the savior the Red Sox want him to be.
Mookie Betts (OF – LAD)
Could this possibly be true? After a decade of superstardom, is it possible that the 32-year-old Mookie Betts is starting to see his star fade a little bit over this season with the Los Angeles Dodgers? On Tuesday night, Mookie Betts got his first night off since June 2, and it surely was to give him a bit of mental and physical rest as the Dodgers prepare for the stretch run. June was not kind to Betts, and the question now is, can he pick up the pace?
Over the month of June, Betts hit just one home run and stole one base. He also hit just .240 in the month and went hitless in six of his last 12 games. Fortunately, the Dodgers do not need him every night to maintain their dominance and pick up games in the NL West. But Betts needs to course-correct some things before the postseason gets here. His slugging percentage is a career worst .380, thanks to a hard-hit rate and exit velocity that have both fallen way off from 2024 numbers.
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