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Fantasy Baseball Pitching Streamers: Schmidt Happens

As the season rolls on, and with more data to guide us, pitching streamers become easier to find, and teams to target become clearer. The Rockies and Athletics remain excellent targets for streaming matchups. The Nationals, as of writing, have lost 10 games in a row and appear to be easy targets for streamers. Boston also now appears to be a great team to stream against after trading away the big bat of Rafael Devers.


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Take a look at some of my favorite targets for the week ahead.

Pitching Streamers Available in Some Leagues (Over 25% Rostered)

Matthew Liberatore (SP – STL)

Next Start: Sunday, 6/22 vs CIN

Matthew Liberatore had a rough stretch recently, giving up 16 earned runs across 14 innings against Toronto, Kansas City, and Texas. He bounced back with a quality start against the White Sox and gets another great matchup in the Reds at the end of the week.

The Reds play in a typically hitter-friendly park, though it has played more middle-of-the-pack this season. That is important to know for streaming purposes. Part of the reason for this could be Cincinnati’s groundball rate, which is 10th highest in baseball. Liberatore’s 41% GB rate is just under league average, which should lead to some success against the Reds. Cincy has also struck out the sixth most in the league as a team, while owning the eighth highest strikeout rate. This is great news for Liberatore, whose 7.4 strikeout-per-nine rate is a strikeout below league average. One thing Liberatore does well is limit walks, which will help him avoid baserunners against one of the top offenses at inducing walks. If he can just get a little extra help at stranding runners, his 4.08 could start inching closer to his 3.56 xFIP or 3.70 SIERA. That could start happening in this outing.

Liberatore has two extremely effective pitches in his changeup and curveball. His changeup has a .091 batting average against, a 40% GB rate, and is his second-best out pitch with a 20% putaway rate. Liberatore’s curveball – his best pitch for inducing swings and misses – owns a .185 BAA, a 50% GB rate, a 39% K rate, and a 36% whiff rate. These two pitches will be keys to success against Cincy, especially his curveball if he keeps throwing it like this:

Liberatore has a chance at a quality start and a win against a struggling Reds offense and should be considered one of the top pitching streamers wherever available.

Clarke Schmidt (SP – NYY)

Next Start: Friday, 6/27 vs ATH

Clarke Schmidt should be rostered at a much higher level considering his recent appearances. In his last four starts, Schmidt has a 2-1 record, with three quality starts. He missed out on a fourth by a third of an inning, and in three of those starts, he did not give up any runs. Schmidt’s next outing, against the Athletics, could lead to similar results.

The Athletics have the league’s second-worst run differential, behind the Rockies. They also own the sixth-worst groundball rate in baseball. Thankfully for Schmidt, he pitches for the Yankees, one of the highest-scoring teams in the league. That gives him a chance of coming out of this matchup with a win, not just another quality start. Schmidt has also been a league-average pitcher at inducing groundball rates for his career, which lines up well against the Athletics.

Schmidt’s knuckle curve and slider have 55% and 43% GB rates, respectively, and he should lean on these pitches in this matchup. His knuckle curve also owns a 41% K rate, a .132 BAA, a 32% whiff rate, and a 24% putaway rate. Take a look at it here:

His fastball and sweeper also each have whiff rates of 28% and 25%, helping Schmidt to an 8.6 K/9 rate. If he can cut down on the walks while continuing to strand runners at a high rate, this could be a great season for Schmidt.

Schmidt is a must-add wherever he is available, and is one of the top pitching streamers for the upcoming slate of games.

Widely Available Pitching Streamers (0%-24% Rostered)

Patrick Corbin (SP – TEX)

Next Start: Monday, 6/23 at BAL

Patrick Corbin will continue to appear in this column as long as he continues to put up solid starts. He tossed an eight-inning quality start against Washington two weeks ago and has not given up more than three earned runs in a start all season (as of writing). He has also given up at least one earned run in every start, making him a risky, but potentially worthwhile play.

Corbin’s matchup against Baltimore should work in his favor, as Baltimore’s struggling offense should help mitigate some risk. Baltimore owns the fourth-worst run differential in baseball. They also strike out the eighth most, and own the third-highest strikeout rate in the league. Corbin has the second-lowest K/9 rate of his career, so he might get a little help in raising that rate against the Orioles. Texas has allowed the fewest runs this season and has the best fielding percentage in baseball, so even if the O’s put the ball in play against Corbin, he should get enough support to at least pick up a win.

Corbin has relied on a combination of some swing-and-miss stuff, but also a really good defense. His changeup and slider have 40% and 36% whiff rates, respectively. His sinker and cutter have .217 and .204 BAAs, respectively. But Corbin’s sinker and cutter both have higher xBAAs than BAAs, suggesting he has benefited from having perhaps the best defense in baseball. Still, as long as he is pitching like this, we should trust it:

Make Corbin one of your top pitching streamers for the week ahead.

Justin Verlander (SP – SF)

Next Start: Tuesday, 6/24 vs MIA

Justin Verlander spent a month on the shelf due to a pectoral injury. In his return, the veteran struck out six and allowed three earned runs across 4.2 innings. His next appearance comes against a lackluster Marlins offense, a promising matchup for Verlander.

Miami owns the third-worst run differential in the league. They also have the fifth-fewest home runs and the seventh-highest groundball rate. This is good news for Verlander, who has allowed at least five hits in all but three of his 11 starts and has yet to escape a game without allowing an earned run. The Marlins’ offense and their struggles to get the ball out of the park certainly should work in Verlander’s favor. Also, Verlander has been a below-average pitcher at inducing groundballs, so having a team that will do that for him is good news.

Verlander has struggled a bit this season, posting a 4.45 ERA, and his three most-used pitches – a fastball, slider, and curveball – have been tagged by opposing hitters. His two least-used pitches – a changeup and sweeper – have actually been his best. They have .188 and .167 BAAs, 53% and 25% whiff rates, 26% and 28% putaway rates, 22% and 21% K rates, respectively. He should be tossing these more, and if he does against the Marlins, he should get good results.

Verlander is not the same pitcher he was even five or six years ago, but he is still worth rostering in matchups like this. He should be on fantasy managers’ radars as one of the top pitching streamers for the upcoming match.

Jose Quintana (SP – MIL)

Next Start: Wednesday, 6/25 vs PIT

Outside of two clunkers, Jose Quintana has pitched well this season. He is 4-2 with two quality starts, and has reached five innings in all but one of his nine starts this year. Quintana has also limited opposing offenses to two runs or fewer in all but those two blow-ups. In this matchup, he faces one of the worst offenses in the league, giving him the potential to add to his win and quality start totals.

The Pirates’ offense has been atrocious this year. They are the only team in baseball to rank among the worst 10 in run differential, strikeouts, K%, GB%, and home runs. Pittsburgh ranks seventh worst in run differential, Ks, and K%. They rank fifth worst in GB%. And they have the second-fewest homers in the league. The Pirates also own the sixth-worst batting average against lefty pitchers, as well as the fourth-most strikeouts against them. Quintana should get a boos in the strikeout numbers, as he is more known for inducing weak grounders. He should be able to exploit that weakness of the Pirates and walk away with a positive result.

Quintana has changed his pitch mix, relying far less on his fastball and far more on his sinker this year than last. He has also tossed his changeup more and curveball less. This has been a mixed bag of results for the veteran. His sinker and changeup have performed significantly worse than last season, while his fastball performance has been about the same. Quintana’s curve and slurve have been nearly unhittable, though, and perhaps he should be relying on them a bit more.

Unlike Verlander, we have seen this sort of performance from Quintana across the last three seasons. He is one to trust and should be added even in shallow leagues as one of the top pitching streamers for the coming week.

Hayden Birdsong (SP – SF)

Next Start: Thursday, 6/26 at MIA

Hayden Birdsong notched his first quality start after tossing six innings of three-run ball in Colorado. He struck out six and walked two. Until mid-May, Birdsong had been used mostly out of the bullpen, but should get an extended run as a starter going forward. His immediate value as a starter may simply be as a streamer in good matchups, but he could be worth hanging on to in fantasy leagues depending on his performance against the Marlins.

As mentioned, the Marlins’ offense has struggled. They hit the ball on the ground a ton, they do not hit many home runs, and they have trouble scoring and keeping opposing offenses from scoring. Birdsong has pitched a total of 120 innings across parts of two seasons so far, and has shown some modest, but slightly below league-average groundball rates. However, he has been excellent at inducing strikeouts (career 10.4 K/9 rate), and at stranding runners (career 75% LOB rate). Where Birdsong has struggled is with walking batters, but thankfully for him, the Marlins have the fourth fewest walks against righty pitchers, and the seventh fewest walks overall.

Birdsong has flashed some filthy stuff this season, including a fastball with a .197 BAA and a 22% whiff rate. He has induced a 30% whiff rate and a 47% GB rate with his slider. Birdsong’s curveball has a .227 BAA, a 32% whiff rate, a 24% putaway rate, and a 36% K rate. But his best pitch is an absurd changeup, which owns a .209 BAA, a 42% whiff rate, a 27% putaway rate, a one-degree launch angle, a 60% GB rate, and a 40% K rate. It is no surprise that it is so effective when you see it in action:

Birdsong has a great matchup as one of the top pitching streamers for the upcoming week, and pending a positive result, may be a pitcher you want to hold on to for the long haul.

Backup Plan Streamers

  • TB Zack Littell vs DET – Sunday 6/22
  • NYY Ryan Yarbrough at CIN – Monday 6/23
  • ARI Ryne Nelson at CWS – Tuesday 6/24
  • BOS Hunter Dobbins at LAA – Wednesday 6/25
  • MIL Quinn Priester vs COL – Friday 6/27

Desperation Streamers

  • HOU Ryan Gusto at LAA – Sunday 6/22
  • SD Randy Vasquez vs KC – Sunday 6/22
  • SD Stephen Kolek vs WAS – Monday 6/23
  • ARI Eduardo Rodriguez at CWS – Monday 6/23
  • SD Ryan Berget vs WAS – Tuesday 6/24
  • WAS Jake Irvin at LAA – Friday 6/27
  • LAA Jose Soriano vs WAS – Friday 6/27
  • SF Landen Roupp at CWS – Friday 6/27

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