Welcome to another edition of Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers. While sample sizes have grown with another week of baseball under our belts, they’re still small, and we need to keep our overreactions in check.
At this point in the season, we still need to balance improving our rosters with trusting our draft process. With that in mind, this series looks at some of the week’s risers and fallers from a fantasy perspective. The aim is to help you with lineup and waiver wire decisions — and keep all the early season noise at bay. Let’s look at some fantasy baseball risers and fallers for Week 3.
Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers
Week 3 stats from 4/7-4/13
Risers
Taylor Ward (OF — LAA)
Taylor Ward brought the lumber last week. He smacked five home runs and slashed .259/.310/.815 with seven runs and six RBI across 29 plate appearances. Ward’s power trip was part of a collective team power surge, as the Angels swatted a league-leading 17 dingers and posted a team .275 ISO last week.
Ward was off to a slow start, so the productive week was nice to see. He brings pop and some speed to fantasy lineups and should continue to be a valuable asset in 12-teamers — especially for a Halos team that is on fire right now.
Sean Murphy (ATL — C)
Sean Murphy hit the ground running following his return from the IL last week. He popped three homers and drove in six runs across five games with a 1.100 OPS and .474 ISO. Murphy also smoked the ball, registering a 27.3% barrel rate for the week.
An oblique injury derailed his 2024, but Murphy is only two years removed from a 21-home run season across 438 plate appearances. He brings a plus plate approach and solid thump to the fantasy table (career 11.9% barrel rate and 42% hard-hit rate). As long as he’s healthy, Murphy should receive the lion’s share of playing time behind the dish and hits in the middle of the Braves’ order. If available, Murphy is worth picking up in shallower formats.
Trevor Story (SS — BOS)
Trevor Story collected 11 hits across seven games last week, including four multi-hit efforts. Additionally, he was among the week’s leaders in steals, racking up four swipes in as many attempts.
Despite a horrendous plate approach this season (3% BB% / 29.9% K%), Story has been a surprising source of steals. He’s 6-for-6 on the basepaths across 17 games, and with the Red Sox being one of the more aggressive teams on the basepaths, Story doesn’t look to be slowing down anytime soon. If he can stay healthy, Story has 30-steal upside this season.
Hayden Wesneski (SP — HOU)
Hayden Wesneski coughed up three solo home runs against the power-charged Angels but still had an impressive week. Across two starts, he combined for a 15:0 K:BB through 13 innings and posted a 3.46 ERA (2.18 SIERA) and 0.62 WHIP.
The solid week is an extension of a productive early season for Wesneski. He’s sporting a 26.5% K-BB across 18 frames this year with a 4.00 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. While his ERA isn’t ideal, it comes with a much more appealing 2.69 SIERA. Wesneski is coming off two quality starts and should have a long leash for an Astros team starting to heat up. He’s a better play in deeper leagues, but can also be of value in some 12-teamers.
Fallers
Marcus Semien (2B — TEX)
The cold streak for Marcus Semien continues. The veteran went 2-for-20 at the plate last week and was 0-for-1 on the basepaths. Semien has struggled to do much this season, logging only seven hits across 62 plate appearances with a paltry .387 OPS. A .136 BABIP on the year shows he’s been unlucky, but the slow start is concerning, given Semien is coming off a down season. Further, Semien’s quality of contact metrics are down, with his 26.7% hard-hit rate a career-low mark. Semien typically volumes his way into production, but that could be in jeopardy if he continues to struggle. Stay tuned.
Matt Chapman (3B — SFG)
Matt Chapman put up a surprising goose egg in hits for the week, going 0-for-19 with three runs scored across six games. However, he still managed to get on base due to a 26.9% walk rate.
Chapman is coming off a breakout 2024, posting a 27/15/.247 season. However, he’s been slow off the blocks this year. Across 70 plate appearances, he’s slashing .179/.343/.321 with two home runs, one steal and a 102 wRC+. Besides Chapman’s 20% walk rate (career 10.7%), his drop in quality contact stands out most so far this year. He has only one barrel in 37 batted ball events (2.7%), and his 35.1% hard-hit rate is a 13-point drop from his career rate. Chapman has the skills to turn these numbers around, but it bears watching in the meantime.
Michael Toglia (1B — COL)
Michael Toglia went 5-for-21 (.238) at the plate with one run, one RBI and a steal for the week. While that’s not the worst line, the swing-and-miss continues to plague Toglia. He struck out at a 47.6% clip last week, and he leads the league in strikeouts with a whopping 46% on the year.
The Rockies have continued to stick with Toglia in the middle of the lineup. But you have to wonder how long that lasts, especially with his poor contact rate (74.4% zone-contact). The team sent Toglia down for more seasoning a month into the 2024 season, and they could do so again. Toglia’s power/speed combo is still worth holding in 15-teamers, but have a backup plan in case a minor league stint is on the horizon.
Joc Pederson (UT — TEX)
The move to Texas hasn’t been a smooth one for Joc Pederson. The slugger was hitless across 16 plate appearances last week and struck out at a 37.5% clip. On the year, Pederson has a .070/.184/.093 slash line with a -10 wRC+ across 50 plate appearances. Most concerning is the lack of quality contact, with a 3.1% barrel rate and 31.3% hard-hit rate being career-worst marks. Pederson is still hitting in the heart of the Rangers’ order, but that could change if he can’t find his rhythm at the plate. He’s a hold in 15-teamers.
