Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers (Week 16): Kurtz So Good

The All-Star break is an ideal time to take a breather and assess our fantasy baseball teams in greater detail. Some of our squads may only require minor tweaks, while others require a more substantial overhaul. No matter your team’s needs, the Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers series is here to help. Each week, we highlight recent player performances from a fantasy perspective to assist with lineup and waiver wire decisions. So, whether you’re looking to boost a category in the second half of the season or need to cut dead weight, we’ve got you covered.

In this week’s edition of Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers, we identify some young bats who can bring added oomph to the home run column. On the flip side, we look at a pitcher whose new role likely costs him a roster spot moving forward. With that, let’s take a look at some Week 16 fantasy baseball risers and fallers.

Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers

Week 16 stats from 7/7 – 7/13

Risers

Nick Kurtz (1B — ATH)

Nick Kurtz continues to be a powerhouse for the Athletics. He swatted four homers across six games last week and tacked on eight runs, nine RBI, and threw in a stolen base for good measure. Kurtz also hit the ball with authority, posting a 21.4% barrel and 71.4% hard-hit rate across his 21 at-bats.

Kurtz has been a force to be reckoned with since his call-up at the end of April. He’s improved his power numbers each month and has come on especially strong once the calendar flipped to June. In his last 127 plate appearances, Kurtz is sporting a 1.001 OPS with 12 dingers, 22 runs and 29 RBI. Additionally, his .384 ISO in that stretch is fourth-best in the league. A strikeout rate above 30% on the year isn’t ideal. But as long as Kurtz continues to walk at a double-digit clip while tearing the cover off the ball, fantasy managers won’t mind. Kurtz shouldn’t be sitting on waiver wires in shallow formats.

Kyle Stowers (OF — MIA)

Kyle Stowers was a beast last week. He was 9-for-18 at the plate while walking and striking out at a 16.7% clip. He also had himself quite the revenge game against the Orioles, putting up a three-home run and six-RBI line against his former club.

Stowers has been bringing the power lately. He’s popped six long balls across 13 games in July, while flexing a 1.291 OPS and .462 ISO. He also smoked the ball with a 20.7% barrel and 58.6% hard-hit rate in that span. Stowers sits against lefties, but he hits in the heart of the order for a Marlins team that has been cruising of late. In addition to power, Stowers also brings a handful of steals and a strong batting average to the fantasy table. He’s a productive bat that should be rostered in most shallow leagues.

Sean Murphy (C — ATL)

After a rocky start to the season, it’s time to start paying attention to Sean Murphy. The Braves’ backstop hit three dingers in five games last week. He also tallied seven RBI with a .987 OPS across 21 at-bats. Murphy’s plate skills were lacking (0.0% walk rate and 31.8% strikeout rate), but he moved up to the cleanup spot from the bottom-third of the order. Murphy also got a boost in playing time, catching six of the Braves’ last seven games.

Murphy has heated up over the last few weeks and has been a strong power source at the position. He’s hit seven long balls over his last 12 games while slashing .279/.295/.837 with a 208 wRC+ across 44 plate appearances. Similar to last week, Murphy’s plate discipline was terrible in this stretch, as he failed to record a walk and struck out at a 36.4% rate. However, power is tough to come by among catchers, and Murphy’s 16 dingers this year are fourth-most at the position. Assuming his power streak continues after the All-Star break, Murphy is a solid addition to one-catcher leagues.

Eury Perez (SP — MIA)

Eury Perez had himself quite the week. Across two starts, he allowed a combined one earned run over 12 innings, while racking up 14 punchouts and issuing no walks. He also snagged a couple of wins.

Perez has been fantastic in July. The hurler is rocking a 0.50 ERA (2.29 SIERA) and 0.39 WHIP across his last three starts (18 IP) with a 33.3% K-BB rate. Much of Perez’s success in this stretch stems from cutting down the free passes. He issued only one walk across his last three games, compared to 10 across his first four. Additionally, he’s been mowing down batters — his 21 Ks over his last 18 frames is good for a 35% strikeout rate. Assuming Perez can keep the walks down and the strikeouts up, he could be a game-changer coming out of the All-Star break.

Fallers

Jac Caglianone (1B/OF — KCR)

It was another rough week for Jac Caglianone as he managed only two hits across 21 at-bats. On the plus side, both hits cleared the fences with one of those home runs sailing 466 feet — the franchise’s longest dinger for a rookie. However, it’s been tough sledding for Caglianone as he adjusts to big-league play. He’s slashing .140/.196/.264 with four home runs and a steal across 138 plate appearances. He also has a paltry 22 wRC+ in that stretch while generating ground balls at a 50.5% rate.

There are reasons to be optimistic moving forward. Caglianone is striking out at a sub-22% rate, and his underlying numbers are solid, including an 11.1% barrel rate and 90.3% zone-contact rate. Plus, positive regression is due. Caglianone’s .147 BABIP is rock-bottom among hitters with at least 130 plate appearances. If you’re in a keeper league or don’t need production right away, it’s worth holding Caglianone as he’ll bring big-boy power once he turns things around. But he’s a tougher call if you’re in win-now mode or if you don’t have the luxury of waiting. If that’s the case, Caglianone makes a nice sell candidate for the second half.

Bryan Reynolds (OF — PIT)

Bryan Reynolds’ down season continued as he went 4-for-23 at the plate last week with a 39.1% strikeout rate. He also failed to record a walk. The strikeout rate is particularly concerning as he’s carrying a near 43% rate this month.

Reynolds has been awful in July. He has a .241 OPS for the month with goose eggs in home runs and steals to go with a -43 wRC+. Granted, the sample size is small (42 PA). But given Reynolds’ underwhelming season to date (10/3/.225), the lack of production is discouraging heading into the All-Star break. In 15-teamers, it’s worth hanging onto Reynolds. He has a solid track record, and his underlying skills this year are consistent — if not better — than his career norms. However, in shallower formats, it may make more sense to cut bait if there are more productive bats on the wire. Just be ready to pick Reynolds back up if he starts to heat up.

Drew Rasmussen (SP — TBR)

In an attempt to manage Drew Rasmussen’s workload, the Rays recently announced that he will sometimes operate as an opener. The move is an effort to limit Rasmussen’s innings to under 150 this season (he’s pitched 91.1 innings to date), as he’s already undergone three major elbow surgeries in his career.

Rasmussen’s fantasy value takes a hit with the load management. Already not a big strikeout pitcher (7.59 K/9), the shortened appearances will curb Rasmussen’s win and quality start opportunities, further limiting his appeal for fantasy rosters. While Rasmussen will sometimes have standalone starts, he downgrades from a lineup staple to a streamer in most formats.