There’s a lot that goes into a successful fantasy baseball season. Doing your research on the player pool is a large part of it, but there’s more to it than that. Digging into the players is the fun part, but you have to put that knowledge into action. As you prepare for, and go through your drafting process, ADP has a role. Let’s take a look at why not to ignore ADP on the most exciting day of the year; Draft Day.
Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Why Not to Ignore ADP
There is Some Value in Groupthink
I’m not sure it can be said enough, but when you draft, it’s your team. The final decision needs to rest with you and your thoughts, rankings, and convictions. This is going to be your team for the season, so own it. Follow your rankings and all of the prep work that you have done. Make this team your own.
However, that doesn’t mean you will be right about every player. Of course, we think that’s going to be the case, but unfortunately, it’s not. The same could be said for the market. Even when you compile the composite rankings, essentially the ADP, across the market, there are still errors. Groupthink can be wrong.
On an overall basis though, ADP is generally correct. So use it as a resource. Just do your rankings first. But calibrating your rankings with groupthink does have value.
Sanity Check Your Rankings
Once your rankings are complete, match them up against ADP. There likely will be differences in either direction. By no means can we truly say which one is correct, but it does warrant further investigation. That’s where groupthink has its value. It allows you to review the market and identify potential value. The other benefit is that it directs you toward specific players that could deserve another look to see what you, or the market, are potentially missing.
Ultimately, there could be a very good reason why you are higher or lower than ADP on a player. But taking a second look after that comparison could uncover some useful information.
At the very least, it helps illuminate some targets and fades.
Anticipate Opponents
In a perfect world, you can draft by following your rankings and building your ideal team. The problem though, is that all of your league mates are trying to do the same thing. As a positive, not everyone is after the same players and not at the same time. By following along with ADP, you have the ability to identify how to manage a draft.
The start point is always going to be your rankings, but understanding the ADP helps to identify when you should, or shouldn’t draft a player. Knowing the ADP helps with your draft plan as to how you can prioritize your picks. If your 75th-ranked player has an ADP of 110, then the assumption would be to wait another round or two.
We do have to add a caveat though. In conjunction with ADP, and sometimes this is more important, understanding the Min and Max picks of a player could be more valuable.
Avoid Reaching
One of the worst things you can do is reach for a player. One of the fun things about fantasy baseball is having conviction. If you are higher than the market on a player, that is the start to building a championship team. But if you draft said player too early, your value becomes diminished; if not eliminated. Not only is your risk increasing, but there’s also the opportunity cost of the other player you could have taken at that slot while still securing your target.
Establish Value
As you begin your research, it’s important to have a baseline. Early ADP can do that. Additionally, things change throughout the off-season and rankings are far from static. At any point, ADP can bring you back to center. Your rankings should still be the ultimate source of truth for drafting, but ADP provides a good comparison point. Being aware of the market is critical.
Conclusion
While we just extolled the virtues of being aware of, and following along with, ADP, is it really that easy?
Ultimately, ADP is just one more tool at our disposal. It’s important to remember though, that your rankings should be the ultimate list to follow. Don’t overrate ADP, as the ultimate goal is to secure your targets. Just don’t do so before you have to. Exploiting the market is what our intention should be while building your desired team.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
