Dave Funnell continues his series looking at the injury history and risk position by position. This week, he once again digs into the injury concerns at the starting pitcher position. For more injury analysis make sure to follow Dave on Twitter @sportz_nutt51.
When assessing the future stats of a player, it’s imperative to consider player health and injury risk when speculating on playing time. After all, getting onto the field and being given a chance to succeed only happens if the player is healthy enough. That’s why looking at a player’s track record of health gives credence to whether someone is worth drafting. A fantasy team could have all the talent in the world, but if they’re on your Injured List or bench, they lose a ton of value.
We are moving into the heart of draft season, and all eyes will be on the top players at each position. Knowing of any inherent risk to drafting someone can help teams in the long run. That’s why going through the examinations of injury risk is important for roster construction. The following will be the Injury History of the top players at every position with special notes on their healthy or troubled pasts. Seeing trends in their health could help determine any future problems.
Fantasy Baseball Injury Risk for Starting Pitchers
The players listed below will be separated into one of three categories: red light, yellow light, green light. The timeframe that will be examined will primarily be from 2021 to 2023, though looking into the distant past might also take place.
Red Light: any players listed here have an extensive and/or concerning injury history that seems likely to come into play in the future. The potential for injury outweighs their production on the field and their selection could lead to roster problems down the line. The reoccurrence of a particular injury or multiple injuries also creates the need for a red light. Fantasy owners should be wary of drafting these players because the risk of injury is high.
Yellow Light: any players listed here have had their injury problems before, but they’re not necessarily prone to injury. These players here have situations to monitor, especially during the off-season and Spring Training, but it’s not necessarily as bleak as it could be. The types of injuries could also be freakish or due to bad luck with events leading to it being out of the ordinary. Fantasy owners should be aware of the injury history, but know the possibility for health is there too.
Green Light: any players listed here have had minimal problems and their future doesn’t appear to be in any jeopardy. There is nothing from their past that would indicate an injury-prone future. While injuries could happen at any time, there are no red flags in this player’s history to suggest it will lead to another one. Fantasy owners can feel safe in drafting these players.
Things to remember:
- The players listed are in the general order from which they are being drafted.
- The level of confidence has to do with their health and nothing to do with their abilities on the field.
- A player’s injured past is not a direct indication that they will get injured in the future.
- Pitchers tend to be more prone to getting injured as opposed to hitters, especially with long-term injuries.
- The minimum time away on the Injured List is ten days for hitters and fifteen days for pitchers.
1. Shohei Ohtani – Los Angeles Dodgers
Covered with designated hitters. Of note, though, Ohtani has been shut down from throwing with the intent being that the Dodgers want him to focus on ramping himself up as a hitter.
2. Paul Skenes – Pittsburgh Pirates
2024 – 23 games started, 133.0 innings pitched
Paul Skenes has had a very healthy start to his career. He is a very capable pitcher, and the Pirates know it. It’s important to note that his innings and workload are very closely monitored to ensure that he is never overworked or pushes himself to the brink of a potential injury. That being said, full speed ahead in 2025. Draft with confidence.
3. Tarik Skubal – Detroit Tigers
2024 – 31 games started, 192.0 innings pitched
Tarik Skubal returned after a lengthy absence to win the Cy Young Award in 2024 with a dominant performance. His injury history comes with some inherent risk, however, given the nature of his surgery and the workload concerned. His flexor tendon operation at the end of the 2022 season cost him almost a full calendar year from which to recover, but he returned a man who was reaching his full potential. There are some worries about the innings jump here, as his 80.1 innings pitched in 2023 make for a huge jump toward last year’s final numbers. There could be some lingering effects here, so keep that in your back pocket if and when you are offered trades for him in-season. Still, fantasy owners should be open to rostering him with the expectation of him retaining his lore as one of the best in baseball. Draft with confidence.
4. Zack Wheeler – Philadelphia Phillies
2024 – 32 games started, 200.0 innings pitched
Zack Wheeler has done well in disposing of any early-career concerns regarding his health and durability. Since the start of the 2021 season, Wheeler has thrown 758.0 innings, which is good for third in all of baseball. His only trips to the Injured List in that time were due to Covid-19 and forearm tendinitis back in 2022. Since then, he has ripped off 64 starts over the past two seasons and is a rock-solid option to be your team’s ace. Draft with confidence.
5. Logan Gilbert – Seattle Mariners
2024 – 33 games started, 208.2 innings pitched
Logan Gilbert led all of baseball last season in games started and innings pitched, proving just how durable he can be. He has had an impeccably clean injury history to begin his career and remains one of the best and most reliable pitchers in baseball. Draft with confidence.
6. Garrett Crochet – Boston Red Sox
2024 – 32 games started, 146.0 innings pitched
Garrett Crochet went from a flame-throwing reliever into one of baseball’s best starters last season, though there is inherent risk involved with rostering him. His injury history is littered with major problems, from his Tommy John Surgery in 2022 to his shoulder inflammation in 2023, both keeping him out for long periods of time. His resurgence, however, came last year when his schedule and workload were meticulously planned out by the White Sox. After a Cy-Young-like first three months of work, his outings were cut down in length in a big way, as he never threw more than four innings of work or more than 77 pitches after the All-Star Break. It was the perfect way to build up his stock, keep him healthy, and then unload him in the off-season. Does this mean he will get injured in 2025? It’s unclear, but it does raise an eyebrow or two as to why the White Sox did what they did. Then again, it is the White Sox, so nobody really knows why they do what they do. Draft with attention.
7. Chris Sale – Atlanta Braves
2024 – 29 games started, 177.2 innings pitched
Chris Sale has had himself a long career with almost 2000 innings pitched over fourteen seasons. The unfortunate part about his career is that his injury history is just as long, as he has missed time on the Injured List for an abundance of reasons, including Tommy John Surgery during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Still, when you look at his overall track record, he has suffered through some fluky injuries, such as fracturing his rib cage and his pinky finger. Still, they are significant enough that they have hindered any potential he had to maintain consistency and progression with a normal off-season, causing his playing time to fluctuate. The good news is that his late-season back spasms seem to be an issue of the past, and both he and the team worked together to create another normal off-season heading into 2025. Sale himself said how important it was to maintain that consistency, as he looks to be close to, if not at 100% health as camp opened up. The Braves worked in extra rest days for him last season and will do so again this year. Everything feels good here, but it’s hard to shake the worry, especially this early in drafts. Draft with attention.
8. Jacob deGrom – Texas Rangers
2024 – 3 games started, 10.2 innings pitched
Where to begin? Jacob deGrom might be the biggest “what if” example in all of baseball this season. Coming back from his second Tommy John Surgery, he made his triumphant return to the mound at the end of the 2024 season for three impressive yet short starts. His final numbers were about as good as his command, but the sample size was small enough to warrant it as being more of a “peace-of-mind” debut than anything else. Now, after a normal off-season, he is out to prove the naysayers wrong and get back to dominating on the mound. The problem here is that to do so, he must defy the odds more than any other player in recent memory. First of all, the success rate for pitchers returning with success after TWO Tommy John Surgeries is minimal. Just look at Walker Buehler last year; it took him until the playoffs to begin to look like himself again. Secondly, deGrom doesn’t have a track record of high usage. Since the start of the 2020 season, he has thrown just 265.1 innings, which puts him in 163rd overall among starters. Additionally, his low velocity to end the season is a very peculiar side note. On the one hand, if he cannot get back to the velocity he had during his dominant seasons, are we to expect similar results? On the other hand, his major injuries did not start until his uptick in velocity and spin rate were consistently implemented back in 2020, so was it a planned downturn? His start to Spring training seems to lead to the latter, but time will tell. So many questions for someone being drafted so early in drafts. He’s your classic boom-or-bust example here. Draft with caution.
9. Corbin Burnes – Arizona Diamondbacks
2024 – 32 games started, 194.1 innings pitched
Corbin Burnes has been a workhorse with minimal injury concerns over his seven-year career. With just three trips to the Injured List, and just one of them being for his shoulder, he looks to be a reliable pitcher to count on for innings in 2025. Draft with confidence.
10. George Kirby – Seattle Mariners
2024 – 33 games started, 191.0 innings pitched
George Kirby has had a healthy career, both in the Major Leagues and Minor Leagues. Other than shoulder fatigue while he was in Triple-A, there is nothing concerning at all in his profile. Draft with confidence. Update: George Kirby has been shut down with shoulder inflammation. As of this release, not much else is known, but he is shut down from throwing and will likely begin the season on the Injured List. Draft with caution.
11. Cole Ragans – Kansas City Royals
2024 – 32 games started, 186.1 innings pitched
Cole Ragans is one of the rare success stories for pitchers with multiple Tommy John Surgeries. It took many years for him to develop into the pitcher that he is now post-surgery, but what he is now is someone who is seemingly reliable, given the contract extension he received. That being said, keep an eye on his velocity early in the season. As the 2024 season wavered, so did his overall velocity. The hope is that it was because of general fatigue and nothing more. Draft with confidence.
12. Dylan Cease – San Diego Padres
2024 – 33 games started, 189.1 innings pitched
Dylan Cease has led baseball in games started for three of the past four seasons. There is nothing in his past to indicate that he will miss time due to injury in 2025. Draft with confidence.
13. Blake Snell – Los Angeles Dodgers
2024 – 20 games started, 104.0 innings pitched
Blake Snell comes with a lot of accolades throughout the years, but also an extensive injury history. Over his nine years in baseball, he has been placed on the Injured List nine times. What’s interesting to note is that of his trips to the Injured List, more than half of them have been located in a similar area of the body. No, they’re not pitching-related body parts, either. He has missed time due to gastroenteritis, his groin, and an abductor injury a combined five times since the start of the 2021 season, and all of those were preceded by an illness. While it’s unclear if all of these are related, it’s an interesting observation nonetheless. Draft with attention.
14. Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Los Angeles Dodgers
2024 – 18 games started, 90.0 innings pitched
Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s debut season for the Dodgers did not go as planned, as he missed half of the year with a rotator cuff injury. While one injury isn’t something to be overly concerned about, a digger deep into his time in Japan uncovers other ailments that warrant some attention. In 2019, he suffered an oblique injury, and then in 2022, there were some concerns about his workload. He went through periods where he was given extended rest in between starts, with some worries about an injury. While nothing ever came from it, the result is that he had people worried. Are you? Draft with attention.
15. Gerrit Cole – New York Yankees
2024 – 17 games started, 95.0 innings pitched
Last season was a scary one for Cole and the Yankees, as the New York ace missed the first half of the season with right elbow inflammation. It was believed at one time that he would miss more time than he did, but ultimately he returned to have a subpar season. All that being said, Cole has already been on record making note of how much better this off-season was in terms of preparation. Also, in terms of performance on the field, this spring he has said that he felt farther along in February than he did at any point in 2024. Despite being 34 years old, he feels like an under-appreciated ace in drafts. Just keep in mind that he has a lot of innings underneath the hood. Draft with confidence. Update: Gerrit Cole will miss the entire 2025 season because of his need to get Tommy John Surgery. Do not draft.
16. Michael King – San Diego Padres
2024 – 30 games started, 173.2 innings pitched
Michael King has done well in recovering from his early-career injury concerns and becoming a bona fide ace in the Padres’ rotation. Draft with confidence.
17. Framber Valdez – Houston Astros
2024 – 28 games started, 176.1 innings pitched
Usually, looking at one’s injury history gives perspective on future events. Seeing certain injuries can lead to questions and concerns, doubts and worries. And then there are those that leave you scratching your head because they’re an obvious exception to the rule. Last season, Framber Valdez went to the Injured List with a sore left elbow, and the world held its breath, thinking the worst. Instead, he came back and finished the season with one of his most dominating performances. The hope is that this can continue, as we haven’t heard anything that would warrant ongoing issues. Draft with confidence.
18. Pablo Lopez – Minnesota Twins
2024 – 32 games played, 185.1 innings pitched
Pablo Lopez has done well to overcome early-career shoulder issues to be a workhorse in the Twins’ rotation. He has posted 96 starts over the past three seasons, with no hints of him slowing down. Draft with confidence.
19. Shota Imanaga – Chicago Cubs
2024 – 29 games started, 173.1 innings pitched
Shota Imanaga has had a clean Injury History for the past four seasons. It is important to note, however, that he had season-ending shoulder surgery in 2020. That being said, it hasn’t slowed him down since. Draft with confidence.
20. Bryce Miller – Seattle Mariners
2024 – 31 games started, 180.1 innings pitched
Other than two blister injuries, Bryce Miller has had a healthy run as a Seattle Mariners pitcher. Draft with confidence.
21. Bailey Ober – Minnesota Twins
2024 – 31 games started, 178.2 innings pitched
Since his debut in 2021, Bailey Ober has only sustained lower-body injuries as a member of the Twins. Both his hip and groin were injured in his first two seasons, but since then, he has had a clean bill of health. While he’s been able to stay on the mound for the past two seasons, his early-career ailments are not to be ignored. He is a very tall pitcher at six feet and nine inches tall, and as such, his movement on the mound can be a tough one. His arms are quite long, giving him an extension like no other pitcher and contributing to his success. It’s no coincidence that his injuries are lower-body related. The chances of him reinjuring these body parts again aren’t non-existent, but they are possible, given how unnatural a physical motion pitching is. It’s not enough to downgrade his health ranking, but enough to not be surprised if it happens again. Draft with confidence.
22. Aaron Nola – Philadelphia Phillies
2024 – 33 games started, 199.1 innings pitched
Aaron Nola has been a rock-solid option for the Phillies for quite some time. He has missed time on the Injured List just once since 2018, and that was for exposure to COVID-19. Draft with confidence.
23. Luis Castillo – Seattle Mariners
2024 – 30 games started, 175.1 innings pitched
Luis Castillo has gone on the Injured List twice in his career, resulting in games missed for a right shoulder injury and a left hamstring ailment. Other than that, he has been reliable and durable. There is some worry about his ERA rising over the years alongside his lowered velocity. There were some reports that he purposely threw his breaking pitches slowly to begin the 2024 season, as per the direction of the Mariners. However, with poor results, it was decided that it was a bad decision, and they went back to the status quo. Whatever the case may be, he has the track record and durability to prove the doubters wrong and reclaim his stance as one of the league’s best starters. It remains to be seen if he will. Draft with confidence.
24. Roki Sasaki – Los Angeles Dodgers
2024 – DNP in MLB
Roki Sasaki comes to Major League Baseball highly acclaimed, with a ton of mileage on him. His numbers on the surface look good, but it’s important to remember that he had perceived elbow injuries and then shoulder problems while he was there. He even missed an entire year of pitching to help maintain his health. It was recommended that he have surgery for his problems, and while it was revealed later that his elbow ailment wasn’t what it was perceived to be, the fact that things looked troublesome could be a bad omen. He will get extended rest here as the Dodgers try to implement a six-man rotation, but anything shorter than that could put stress on a pitcher’s body that doesn’t need it. Draft with caution.
25. Spencer Schwellenbach – Atlanta Braves
2024 – 21 games started, 123.1 innings pitched
Spencer Schwellenbach broke out in a big way in 2024 and has subsequently climbed up draft boards. While his clean injury history from last year seems great, he does have some red flags that require attention. First, he had Tommy John Surgery in 2021. Secondly, he went from 65.0 innings pitched in 2023 to a total of 168.2 innings pitched in 2024, which is a massive jump up. Finally, he has a history of playing in different positions in the infield, so his arm doesn’t have the track record of others to possibly hold up if necessary. It’s hard to tell if this will incite a major injury or not, but these are all things that should be considered when drafting him. Draft with attention.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
