NASCAR DFS: Cook Out 400 @ Richmond Raceway

Welcome back, race fans. The push toward the Chase continues this weekend with the Cook Out 400 night race at Richmond Raceway. With just three races remaining before the new “Chase” playoff format, the battle for the top spot and the fight around the playoff bubble are quickly heating up.

Denny Hamlin continues to lead at the top of the standings, but things have shuffled a bit behind him. Reddick had a DNF last week at Iowa, which dropped him from second to fourth, while Ty Gibbs jumped up to second after a huge win. Around the bubble, Ryan Preece closed the gap a bit on Austin Cindric and is now just 29 points behind.

In this article, we will preview the track, look at some trends that matter, and then dive into some of our top targets on this slate as we head into race weekend starting with practice and qualifying on Friday afternoon.

NASCAR DFS: Cook Out 400

Track Preview & Fantasy Angle

Richmond is a .75 mile, D-shaped oval short track and falls into our combined short/flat track model with it’s 14 degrees of banking in the turns. NASCAR has been racing here since 1953 and, outside of last year, has raced here twice yearly going back to 1959.

From a correlation to starting position standpoint, it is very high on average and has seen a correlation of .550 or greater in three of the last four. With track position being very important once again this week, combined with a total of 400 laps, it’s another dominator race. Unlike Iowa, we aren’t just looking at one dominator, as there can be as many as four. Two or more drivers have led 100+ laps in three straight races. The 2024 fall race saw three drivers lead 90+ laps, and the 2023 fall race saw four drivers lead 80+ laps. Picking the dominators isn’t as easy as targeting the front drivers either, as the pole sitter has only been the top dominator twice, and only three times in seven races has the pole sitter led 80+ laps. There have been 18 drivers to lead 80+ laps here in the NextGen era, and only 10 of them have come from a top-5 starting position, and five times have come from a starting position outside of 10th!

For fantasy purposes, my model will be looking at the seven races here in the NextGen era, results and stats from all short/flat tracks going back to the start of last year, and current form on all tracks.

Top Pre-Qualifying Targets for DraftKings

Denny Hamlin ($11,500)

The price is at a premium, but you get a driver who checks every box. He leads all drivers in wins (2), top-5s (5), top-10s (6), and average finish (5.7) here at Richmond in the Next Gen era. He is second behind only Ryan Blaney in short/flat track average with three wins and nine top-5s during that 14-race stretch. He hasn’t won since Pocono, but with three straight top-5s, he is tied with Christopher Bell in current form average finish (5.4) over the last five races. Barring something unforeseen in practice and qualifying, he is my top driver to build around this week.

Joey Logano ($10,500)

After running top 10 most of the race last week at Iowa, Logano ended up with a disappointing 14th place finish. I am going back to the well as he stands out for many of the same reasons this week. He is behind only Denny in track history with top-5s in three of his last four and top-10s in eight of the last 10 races here at Richmond. He is excellent on the short/flat tracks, sitting 4th in that model, and has been in near top form with a win and three top-10s in his last four races.

Kyle Larson ($9,700)

With four finishes outside of 30th in his last five races, Larson has fallen to 10th in the standings and is likely feeling the pressure. That slump has also driven down the price on DraftKings to a sub-$10 K level, and that is what draws my attention. He has been very good here, with finishes of 7th or better in three straight and six of his last eight trips to Richmond, with a win in the 2023 spring race. He also knows how to dominate here, leading all drivers in laps led in the NextGen era.

Josh Berry ($7,200)

Berry is on a roll right now and will be tough to fade once again this week. He is coming off back-to-back top-10 finishes and now returns to one of his best tracks at Richmond Raceway, where he has finished 14th or better in four career races, including a top-10 last year and runner-up in 2023. He also has the most top-10 finishes (7) on short/flat tracks since the start of last season of all drivers $8,500 or cheaper.