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Pitching Streamers: Mitchell Parker on the Rise

One trick to identifying pitching streamers is gathering information to help make your decision. By using the data to find advantageous matchups, you can maximize your pitching output. As the season goes on, we get more information, so that these decisions are not the dart throws they sometimes are in the first few weeks. As a heads up for today’s article, I have not included Friday streamers. There best matchups include widely rostered pitchers, and among the ones available, I would not pick up myself, so I will not recommend them to you. Below, you will find some of my favorite streamers for the week ahead.

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Pitching Streamers Available in Some Leagues (Over 30% Rostered)

Dustin May (SP – LAD)

Next Start: Monday, 4/14 vs COL

Dustin May has pitched well so far, allowing just one earned run in 11 frames. His last outing, as of writing, was a quality start against Washington, though he only struck out one batter and walked three.

He faces Colorado in his next matchup, pitching at home in Los Angeles. The Rockies are among the worst offenses in the league this season. They own the league’s worst run differential. Colorado also ranks among the 10 worst offenses in strikeouts, strikeout rate, and home runs.

This is great news for May, who has great stuff, but relies a ton on weak grounders to get outs. In fact, his sweeper is so great, it’s been literally unhittable:

He may get a boost to his strikeout numbers in this game considering how often the Rockies swing and miss. They also walk the fifth fewest among all MLB teams, which also helps May, who has struggled to limit walks throughout his career.

May has an excellent matchup at home against a terrible Rockies offense, so fantasy managers should add him where available. He may not last as a streamer for much longer.

Widely Available Pitching Streamers (0%-30% Rostered)

Shane Smith (P – CWS)

Next Start: Sunday, 4/13 vs BOS

Shane Smith looked great in his second matchup of the year, a quality start against the Guardians in Cleveland. He struck out six batters and walked one, while allowing two hits and no earned runs.

His next outing comes at home against Boston, a team that has sputtered in some areas to start the season. The Red Sox’s offense has the most strikeouts in the league, with the 10th highest K%, and the seventh highest groundball rate.

This should help Smith in the strikeout category, as he has just a 6 K/9 rate at the moment, despite being a high strikeout pitcher in the minors. Additionally, through two starts (admittedly a small sample), he has a 62% GB rate. While that likely will not remain so high, it reflects the ability he showed through the minors to induce grounders at an above-average rate. Three of his four pitches have a launch angle of 10 degrees or lower, including his changeup, arguably his best pitch. Take a look:

On the surface, Boston may seem like a matchup to avoid, but this plays into Smith’s skills. Make him one of your top pitching streamers for the upcoming week.

Jake Irvin (SP – WAS)

Next Start: Tuesday, 4/15 at PIT

Jake Irvin is off to a bit of a slow start this year. He was a relatively reliable streamer last season in deep leagues, and could reprise that role in this matchup as he gets back on the right track.

Pittsburgh arguably has the worst offense in baseball this year, at least in a few important categories. They have the only offense that ranks among the worst in all of the following categories: run differential, groundball rate, fewest homers, strikeouts, and strikeout rate.

For Irvin, and for fantasy managers, this is a juicy matchup. His last three outings have come against the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Phillies – some of the best offenses in the league. Facing the Pirates should give Irvin’s stats a chance for some positive regression, especially his inflated walk and HR/9 rates. His GB%, which is normally above league average, is about 6% lower than his career norm.

Last season, Irvin finished with five pitches possessing a whiff rate of 20% or more, but right now, his only pitch to meet that mark is his curveball. As the season goes on, his other pitches should start leveling up.

Fantasy managers should target Pittsburgh whenever possible in looking for pitching streamers, and should add Irvin for this matchup.

Mitchell Parker (SP – WAS)

Next Start: Wednesday, 4/16 at PIT

Parker is another Nationals pitcher who faces Pittsburgh this week. He has performed much better than Irvin, solidifying his spot in the rotation. In 12.1 combined innings against Philly and Arizona, Parker gave up just one earned run.

Parker’s walk and strikeout numbers are a bit ugly right now, likely a product of the offenses he has faced. In those two games, he gave up six walks while striking out seven. Facing Pittsburgh’s struggling offense should get those numbers to even out closer to what he did last season, finishing with a 7.9 K/9 rate and a 2.5 BB/9 rate.

Parker has flashed some great stuff early this season, in particular his breaking pitches. Parker’s curveball and slider have 22% and 33% whiff rates, respectively. They also have 40% and 33% putaway rates. If his splitter develops into a better out pitch against righty batters, Parker will be incredibly difficult to face. Here is a look at his slider in action:

Parker could be one of the hot adds for this week, and if he keeps pitching well, fantasy managers may not want to let him go. This is the time to add him, so he should be one of the top pitching streamers on everyone’s radar for the upcoming week.

Eduardo Rodriguez (SP – ARI)

Next Start: Thursday, 4/17 at MIA

Fantasy managers will look at Eduardo Rodriguez’s 6.10 ERA and want to avoid him, but should not in this matchup.

Rodriguez’s pitches in Miami for his next appearance, facing a team with the eighth-worst run differential. That alone should get fantasy baseball managers interested. As an offense, Miami also has the fifth most strikeouts, the second highest K%, and the fourth highest groundball rate. All of this works in Rodriguez’s favor.

Despite giving up seven earned runs in his first 10.1 innings, Rodriguez has pitched well in other ways. In his last start against Washington, he struck out 12 and walked one. Have a look at some of these strikeouts:

Rodriguez has some incredible pitch-level data. All five of his pitches have a whiff rate no lower than 22% and a putaway rate no lower than 20%. His only pitch with a BAA above .164 is his cutter at .600. That should be a sign that good things are to come for the veteran.

He has clearly been unlucky in terms of home runs, with a 25% HR/FB rate – a stat usually measured against league average (10%-12%). His LOB%, GB%, and BABIP are all elevated compared to his career numbers. This matchup alone could help bring some of those numbers closer to normal.

Rodriguez will fly under the radar this week, but fantasy managers should not avoid him. Consider him among your pitching streamers for the upcoming matchup.

Backup Plan Streamers

  • TB Ryan Pepiot vs BOS – Monday 4/14
  • STL Erick Fedde vs HOU – Tuesday 4/15
  • DET Reese Olson at MIL – Wednesday 4/16

Desperation Streamers

  • ARI Merill Kelly at MIA – Tuesday 4/15
  • LAD Justin Wrobleski vs COL – Tuesday 4/15
  • TB Zack Littell vs BOS – Tuesday 4/15
  • LAD Landon Knack vs COL – Wednesday 4/16
  • WAS Trevor Williams at PIT – Thursday 4/17
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