I don’t usually go scouting for pitchers this early. I’m more interested in grabbing hitting breakouts in small samples and seeing if they sustain for a couple of months, and then scratching around for pitchers in August. There’s something going on that we should look at, though.
Statline Scouting Pitchers on FanGraphs
Strikeouts and Walks
These are pretty much the only stats I look at this early, as K-BB% is predictive faster than any other metric. K/BB ratio is similar and works fine, but Batters Faced is a healthier denominator than just Walks. A guy can give up 50 hits and no walks and pop in K/BB. The outliers do stand out a bit more, though, like Wei-en Lin’s 34. Yes, 34 strikeouts to just 1 (one!) walk through 22.2 innings in low A. He got a late mention on a Baseball America fantasy podcast, which mentioned he throws 92-94 with good ride and extension from the left side. That’s the only scouting report beyond the box score I could find. He’s a 19-year-old signed out of Taipei, so this is the first pro data we’ve had. He’s definitely too good for low-A hitters so expect a promotion in short order. We’ll see how he does as he climbs the ladder. Deep leaguers may want to take a flyer.
The Leaderboard
I left off the age limiter here to show what MLB pitchers do to AAA hitters on rehab starts for comparison
For reference, the Major League leaders in K-BB% right now are Hunter Greene and Tarik Skubal at 30%. Top draft picks Chase Burns and Trey Yesavage aren’t too far down the list, both exceeding 30% rates. What stands out here is that 5 of the top 7 true prospects are in the Red Sox organization. Let’s dig into these names to see if any are worth stashing or not.
Brandon Clarke
Clarke already got a mention here as a name dropped on the RotoWire prospects podcast, but let’s pretend we didn’t have any buzz when seeing his name and just followed our process. He was just drafted last year in the 5th round but doesn’t have a single mention on FanGraphs or even scouting grades. He wasn’t on BP’s org list and just snuck into the last spot of Boston’s top 30 according to MLB.com
They give him a 60 grade on his fastball and note high school TJ and thoracic injuries, which would be red flags if I was drafting him as an FYP. We should circle back to that fastball, though, since it touches 100 from the left side and he sits mid-90s with it. Besides injuries, a high-effort delivery leading to poor fastball command was the big concern. Well, he’s walked just two batters so far in 14.1 innings and turned enough heads in his pro debut to get a full write-up, which reports him sitting 96-98, working the zone and getting whiffs. It only took three starts to earn a promotion to high-A and struck out seven with no walks in his first start there. They might have to move him up to AA to find hitters that can do anything with his fastball and really test the rest of his arsenal.
Those are the kind of developments that get national list notice, and I’ve picked him up in every league with minors slots. If you roster 75-plus prospects, you should probably check in on Clarke. The rest of these names are at best deep league pick-ups if you missed on the interesting hitters, but I’ll go through them and see what I can find.
Payton Tolle
A second-round pick out of TCU, his only FanGraphs mention was the spring AL East prospect preview episode of Sleeper and the Bust with Eric Longenhagen, when he mentioned several names quickly, saying that someone from the group was going to pop because of the Red Sox’ player development program. Baseball Prospectus ranked him 7th in the org, noting a fastball with elite movement in models, but not elite velocity in the low-mid 90s. He does get big extension from his 6’6 frame that helps make up for it. They didn’t have much good to say about his secondaries, though, signaling reliever risk. I don’t have access to pitch data for Tolle, but the fastball is clearly enough to clean the floor with high-A hitters, so I’d be waiting for reports of improved secondary stuff before adding him anywhere.
Yordanny Monegro
Another pitcher mentioned by Eric Longenhagen on the podcast above, he noted Yordanny is a bit wild but has a big fastball, so showing up on a stat that includes walks is a good first sign. An IFA signed in 2020, Monegro just getting to AA now is why you basically never see international pitchers ranked.
Eduardo Rivera
Rivera was an 11th-round pick in 2021 by the Athletics. FanGraphs only has grades for a fastball and curve with 20/40 command. Barely cracking the 10IP minimum at 12 and still sporting a 10.6% walk rate is why May is a bit early for this exercise.
Hayden Mullins
Mullins was hurt a lot in college before being drafted in the 12th round in 2022, and he’s on the minor league injured list again. FanGraphs’ 35+ grade and “eventual spot starter” description only add to the red flags.
It’s Still Early…
Without pitch or velocity data or live scouting reports, there’s not much to learn here yet, but it’s still a good place to find names to be on the lookout for. That or to check up on players you drafted to feel better about your slow start. I’ll revisit this later this summer when we have more meaningful data to look at, but if you really want to be ahead of the pack on prospects, sometimes you have to be early.
If there are any other prospect and strategy topics you’d like to see covered in this series, please leave them in the comments below.
