When determining who to add to this list of risers and fallers, I look at a standard 5×5 league ranking. The list is based on where the player ranks today, using their production from the start of the season. We then compare their current rank to their rank from ten days ago.
To ensure this list applies to most fantasy managers, I look at those that have a Fantrax ranking of 300 or better. I have also tried to avoid any players who have risen or fallen because of injury.
You should also check out my latest Pitching Risers and Fallers.
The fantasy baseball landscape shifts rapidly, and it’s important to know the risers and fallers, and why. Over the last 10 days, five hitters have become the biggest risers. Five have become the biggest fallers.
More great Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire | Weekly SP Rankings | Pitching Streamers | Two-Start Pitchers | Lineup Analysis | MLB Injury Report | Rookie Report | Advanced Stats | Under the Radar | Overvalued & Undervalued | Bullpen Report
Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers
Risers
Jackson Merrill (OF, SDP)
Merrill’s recent rise has been driven by a return of the power that made him a breakout fantasy star during his rookie season. Over the last 10 days, he’s hitting .457 with a .943 SLG. The biggest change is a launch angle correction. Merrill raised his LA from 4° to 10°, lowering his groundball rate by 11 percentage points. Plate discipline has improved as well. There are fewer chase swings outside the zone and a better strikeout-to-walk rate. Merrill’s recent stretch suggests the issues that limited his production against right-handed pitching earlier this month are disappearing. His recent climb in Fantrax rankings is well deserved.
Current Rank:Â Â 69Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Previous Rank:Â Â 141Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Rostered: 98
Manny Machado (3B, SDP)
Machado is once again producing like an elite fantasy third baseman. The quality of his contact has jumped dramatically. Over the last 10 days, he has hit multiple home runs while driving in runs at one of the highest rates in baseball. His barrel rate has surged into elite territory after sitting closer to league average for much of June. His average exit velocity has climbed several miles per hour. If his recent RBI pace continues, Machado will remain among the top fantasy contributors at third base for the rest of the season.
Current Rank:Â Â 97Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Previous Rank:Â Â 155Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Rostered: 99
Alex Bregman (3B, CHC)
Bregman’s rise has come from improving on one of the most complete offensive profiles in baseball rather than any one overwhelming category. During the past 10 days, he has boosted his batting average, OBP, and run production while maintaining one of the league’s best walk-to-strikeout ratios. FanGraphs shows that during the last 10 days, Bregman’s line-drive rate rose from 19.5% to 31.0%. His chase rate has fallen by several percentage points. Generating eight extra-base hits and five runs scored over the last ten days puts him among the top five in run creation during that period.
Current Rank:Â Â 226Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Previous Rank:Â Â 279Â Â Â Â Â Â Rostered: 98
Munetaka Murakami (1B, CHW)Â
A power binge has fueled Murakami’s recent jump. He’s hitting .281 with two homers, supported by a barrel rate spike from 6% to 14% and a 3.1 mph increase in average exit velocity over the last 10 days. Murakami cut his strikeout rate from 34.0% down to 21.6% over a 10-game window. Perhaps the most encouraging development is his improved plate discipline. His chase rate has fallen while his zone-contact percentage has increased, allowing his natural power to play more often in hitter’s counts.
Current Rank:Â Â 192Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Previous Rank:Â Â 241Â Â Â Â Â Â Rostered: 99
Ceddanne Rafaela (OF, BOS)Â
Rafaela’s fantasy value has always depended on category diversity. Over the last 10 days he has delivered exactly that. He’s hitting .333/.364/.590 over the last 10 days with three home runs. The Statcast profile has improved considerably, with more balls hit at 95-plus mph and a noticeable increase in average exit velocity. His barrel rate has nearly doubled compared to earlier this month, as he has elevated the baseball more consistently instead of pounding it into the ground. The combination of improving quality of contact, everyday volume, and five-category upside explains why Rafaela has become one of the fastest-rising hitters on Fantrax over the past 10 days.
Current Rank:Â Â 117Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Previous Rank:Â Â 165Â Â Â Â Â Â Rostered: 97
Fallers
Jonathan Aranda (1B, TBR)
Aranda’s season numbers still look impressive, but the last 10 days have exposed some cracks that fantasy managers should monitor. His batting average and on-base percentage have slipped as hard-hit balls have become less frequent, with his barrel rate falling dramatically after sitting comfortably in double digits for much of the season. Instead of driving the ball into the gaps, Aranda has produced more ground balls and weaker contact to the opposite field. Pitchers have also become more aggressive inside the strike zone because he’s chasing pitches just off the plate more frequently than he did earlier this month. Without the consistent extra-base power that fueled his earlier breakout, Aranda’s fantasy ceiling has fallen.
Current Rank:Â Â 158Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Previous Rank:Â Â 121Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Rostered: 98
Christian Walker (1B, HOU)
Walker has endured one of the coldest stretches among everyday first basemen, and the power outage is the primary reason his Fantrax value continues to slide. His home run production has disappeared over the last 10 days despite maintaining respectable exit velocities on a handful of batted balls. Solid contact simply hasn’t been happening often enough. His hard-hit rate and barrel percentage have both declined noticeably, while his launch angle has flattened into a ground-ball-heavy profile that doesn’t fit his power-first approach. Without his signature pull-side power, Walker has become a drag on standard-league fantasy rosters.
Current Rank:Â Â 141Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Previous Rank:Â Â 112Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Rostered: 97
Trent Grisham (OF, NYY)
Grisham’s drop is a familiar problem: too many passive at-bats. He’s hitting .167 with a .250 OBP over the last 10 days, and while he’s still drawing walks, the lack of contact is sinking his value. To illustrate just how bad it is, his 14 strikeouts in 32 at-bats place him among the bottom five qualifiers in strikeout rate over that span. His ZContact% fell from 86% to 78% and his chase rate has gone up significantly. He had no doubles or triples and only one home run over this 10-day period. Grisham is almost impossible to roster in almost any format.
Current Rank:Â Â 288Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Previous Rank:Â Â 261Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Rostered: 86
Garrett Mitchell (OF, MIL)
Over his last 10 games, Mitchell posted a dismal .138/.219/.172 line with no home runs and just one stolen base. In his last seven days, he has a .067 batting average. His Z-Contact% plummeted 10.2 percentage points, and his strikeout rate surged past 38%. The speed remains, yet he hasn’t reached base often enough to take advantage of it. Until Mitchell improves his pitch selection, he will continue to be a faller in the Fantrax rankings.
Current Rank:Â Â 259Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Previous Rank:Â Â 233Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Rostered: 65
Wilyer Abreu (OF, BOS)
Abreu is hitting .192/.222/.308 over the last 10 days with zero home runs, and the underlying numbers match the slump. After spending much of the season punishing fastballs, he’s struggled to square them up. His barrel rate has fallen significantly from his season average. He has tried to compensate, but all that has done is create a passive approach that shaved nearly 4.0 mph off his average exit velocity, dropping it to 87.2 mph. The tools that made him a breakout fantasy contributor are still present, but until his swing decisions improve, his production is likely to remain inconsistent, making him a player whose Fantrax ranking is predictably falling downward.
Current Rank:Â Â 147Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Previous Rank:Â Â 122Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Rostered: 97
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