The Toronto Blue Jays enter today just four games back of the New York Yankees in the American League East. Catcher Alejandro Kirk has played a major role in Toronto’s success this season; by bWAR, he’s been the fourth-most valuable position player on the team. Despite that, he’s only rostered in 47% of Fantrax leagues and is a perfect waiver wire target as the All-Star break approaches.
Why Alejandro Kirk is a Must-Add
Reason #1: Unique Skillset Combines Contact and Power
For how rarely Kirk strikes out, he hits the ball very hard. Among the ten hitters with the lowest strikeout rates in baseball – a list that includes players like Luis Arraez, Jacob Wilson, and Steven Kwan – nine of them have a hard-hit rate in the bottom quartile of big-leaguers. The outlier? Kirk, who owns a 97th-percentile strikeout rate and 98th-percentile hard-hit rate.
Kirk’s ability to hit the ball very hard while limiting strikeouts has manifested itself in his stat line this season. The Blue Jays catcher is slashing .323/.366/.441. Those marks rank him first, third, and sixth in baseball among qualified catchers this season.
Catchers MLB 1995-2025, >= 9 AB/SO, >= .440 SLG, at least 500 PA
- Ivan Rodriguez, 3x
- Yadier Molina, 3x
- Victor Martinez, 3x
- Joe Mauer, 3x
- Buster Posey
- Bengie Molina
- Kenji Johjima
- Jason Kendall
- Paul Lo Duca
- Mike Sweeney
In points leagues, Kirk’s bat-to-ball skills help minimize negative totals from strikeouts. In rotisserie leagues, his contact profile and batted-ball quality will boost his batting average, home run, and RBI totals from the catcher position.
Reason #2: Elite Swing Characteristics
According to Baseball Savant, Alejandro Kirk has the flattest swing in MLB. This helps him catch up to pitches that are thrown up in the strike zone, an area that’s becoming more and more important to cover for contact hitters across baseball.
Since 2015, MLB has seen a steady rise in the percentage of pitches thrown up in the strike zone. The graph below shows the number of pitches at or above the top third of the strike zone as a percentage of total pitches thrown for each of the last 10 seasons:
Kirk’s swing path is perfect for modern baseball. While his bat speed ranked significantly below league-average last season, he’s upped it to 72.4 MPH this year. And although it doesn’t jump off his Baseball Savant page – it ranks in the 59th percentile among qualified MLB hitters – it’s a significant increase that, when paired with his swing path, enables him to make hard line-drive contact consistently.
Reason #3: Kirk’s Excellent Expected Statistics
Kirk’s swing, which produces line drives at a clip greater than 72% of big leaguers, lends itself very well to on-field results. And while the back of his baseball card is certainly eye-popping, perhaps the consistency of his underlying metrics is what really makes Kirk a great addition to fantasy baseball rosters seeking an offensively-focused catcher.
While his expected batting average is slightly lower than his actual mark – .313 vs .323 – it’s not a significant enough difference to be concerned he’ll regress drastically. However, Kirk’s expected slugging percentage of .499 is significantly higher than his actual slugging percentage. In fact, it’s the 20th-greatest difference among 167 qualified MLB hitters between the two metrics. This means we can expect a significant increase in extra-base hit production from Kirk as he gets more plate appearances under his belt.
Perhaps a boost in home runs will come as a part of that regression to his expected power production. According to Baseball Savant, as many as 11 of Kirk’s hits this season would have been home runs had he been playing at a different stadium (the A’s Sutter Health Park, in this case). If he played every game in 15 of 30 stadiums, Kirk would have a higher home run total than he does now. Just nine of the 30 ballparks across MLB would yield a lesser home run total, indicating Kirk may be due for some more balls to clear the wall.
Reason #4: Consistent Track Record
Kirk’s batting average has been at least .250 every season since 2022, and his ISO (isolated slugging) has gone up in each of the last three seasons. There’s a reason he was given a 60-grade hit tool by MLB Pipeline as the Blue Jays’ #5 prospect in 2020, and we’ve seen that manifest itself on the field in every season of his big league career. Here’s an excerpt from said scouting report:
“Employing a direct and impactful swing, Kirk has natural hitting ability and above-average raw power to his pull side. He’s expected to be more of a hit-over-power guy as he moves through the Minors, with an incredible eye and good plate discipline. Scouts like Kirk’s chances of becoming at least an average hitter, in part because he controls the strike zone so well, as evidenced by the 89/60 BB/K ratio in his pro career.”
Kirk’s unique swing, all-around hitting ability, expected metrics, and consistent track record all point to a very productive remainder of the 2025 season. His high batting average from the catcher position is a massive boon for all fantasy managers, but especially for those in rotisserie leagues.
Images courtesy of Baseball Savant.
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