Casey Mize was drafted first overall by the Detroit Tigers in 2018. But as of yet, he hasn’t been able to fulfill the large expectations that came with being the best amateur player in the nation. That could all change this year – and if his first two starts were any indication, Mize is in for a career campaign in 2025.
4 Reasons Casey Mize is Worth Rostering
Reason #1: He’s Always Had Potential
In his pre-draft MLB.com scouting report, Mize was lauded as having “the best combination of stuff and control among college pitchers in the 2018 draft.” That type of talent doesn’t just go away. After being drafted first overall and then debuting in 2020, he threw seven scoreless innings against the eventual World Series runner-up Houston Astros the next April.
The aforementioned combination of stuff and command that Mize had in college has also translated to MLB in glimpses. His slider had an 11 Run Value in 2021 (per Baseball Savant), which made it the 11th-most valuable slider in baseball that season. According to FanGraphs, the right-hander’s 105 Location+ from 2021-2024 was in the 86th percentile among pitchers with at least 250 IP in that timeframe. At times, he’s shown the raw ability to be successful in MLB.
Reason #2: Mize is Fully Healthy
Perhaps the reason Mize never put it all together on the big-league stage? Injuries. After getting Tommy John surgery in June of 2022, the Tigers righty said the following in an article on MLB.com about lingering back pain that he had a second surgery to fix:
“It’s just something that’s gradually gotten worse over time. We had a unique opportunity with me having the Tommy John surgery to go ahead and tackle this, because there was available time for it to be done. So we decided if we’re going to focus on getting better, get everything better. That way when I come back, I can be the best player I can be, and be completely healthy.”
Upon coming back in 2024, Mize looked significantly healthier than he had before the surgeries. He gained two more ticks of velocity on his four-seam fastball, from 93.4 MPH to 95.5 MPH.
“It was something I had to tackle daily,” Mize said of his back problems. “It probably led to some mechanical things that I didn’t love or some compensation. Any injury can have that effect. I would be a liar if I said it didn’t affect my elbow. Everything affects everything.”
Coming back with cleaner mechanics in 2024 helped Mize throw 102.1 innings over 20 starts with a serviceable 4.49 ERA. Based upon his two fantastic outings to start the season, he can certainly improve upon that mark in 2025 – and post a few more innings – to be a valuable add to any fantasy roster in a deep league.
Reason #3: Great Start to 2025
Against the Mariners on April 1st, he threw 5.2 scoreless innings and allowed just four baserunners while striking out six. On Monday, facing a fearsome Yankees lineup that leads MLB in home runs and OPS, Mize threw six innings of one-run ball and scattered 4 hits.
His start against the Yankees was particularly impressive, and not just because it was against a far better offense than Seattle. Mize got whiffs on six of the eight splitters he threw, and ran his fastball up to 97 MPH.
Those two starts were quite possibly the second and third best starts of his entire career – and they came back to back to start this season. Mize certainly looks as if he’s changed from the pitcher who’s been seen as a failed number one overall pick for the last few years.
Reason #4: New and Improved Splitter
Among the reasons Mize’s hot start to the 2025 season could be for real? A revamped splitter. The right-hander’s biggest improvements this season have come on his splitter, which jumped from a 100 Stuff+ in 2024 to a 118 mark so far this season. Having even a single pitch that effective is an enormous difference; take a look at where a 118 Stuff+ splitter would’ve ranked Mize in 2024:
MLB Splitter Stuff+, 2024 (qualified)
- Logan Gilbert, SEA (132)
- Casey Mize 2025, DET (118)
- George Kirby, SEA (114)
- Bryce Miller, SEA (112)
- Nathan Eovaldi, TEX (110)
Mize’s splitter now features 3.1 more inches of horizontal movement than it did in 2024. And as Jason Beck of MLB.com pointed out on Monday, it’s also much faster. Last season, the splitter averaged 86.2 MPH; this year, it’s sitting at 88.5 MPH. That added velocity and movement has helped him be so effective early in 2025.
Despite currently being rostered in just 77% of Fantrax leagues, demand for Mize is sure to shoot up after his excellent showing on Monday. Given his raw talent, improved pitches, health, and fantastic results so far this season, the 6’3 Tigers starter is a great waiver wire pickup and an opportunity for a huge steal early in the season. If he reaches the sky-high potential that every MLB team projected him with before the 2018 draft, he could be the difference between winning and losing a fantasy baseball championship in 2025.
