When Luis Arraez was signed to play second base for the San Francisco Giants this offseason, many saw it as foretelling the end of Casey Schmitt’s playing time in the Bay Area. Arraez would play second, Rafael Devers would be at first, Willy Adames and Matt Chapman had the left side of the infield on lockdown, and prized prospect Bryce Eldridge would be up soon to take over DH and the occasional first base relief.
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Schmitt hit only .237/.305/.401 last season, so the moves felt reasonable. With Heliot Ramos, Harrison Bader, and Jung Hoo Lee in the outfield, the lineup was set. Schmitt would have to settle for a utility role off the bench. But then something happened. Schmitt started off the season hitting well before Edldridge came up, and while Harrison Bader was hurt.
He never stopped hitting and has now become one of the most valuable fantasy baseball assets of 2026. Many people are calling him the Geraldo Perdomo of this season, especially because he is about to add outfield eligibility to his 1B, 2B, and 3B list already.
Schmitt, whose ADP hovered above pick 500 this pre-season, is well-positioned to go from an 18th-round pick this year to being picked in the top ten rounds in fantasy baseball in 2027. Here’s why he will continue to soar up the fantasy ranks this season.
Casey Schmitt is the Giants’ Unexpected MVP So Far
Casey Schmitt is currently among the top 50 hitters in fantasy baseball, ranking as the number 49 overall player on the Fangraphs fantasy player rater. Casey Schmitt? In points leagues, Schmitt leads all Giants in fantasy points as well. Schmitt hit 12 home runs in his 348 PA last season, but he is already at 12 home runs in 51 games in 2026. He is slugging .548, the eighth-best mark in baseball.
Casey Schmitt homers for the 6th time in his last 10 games! pic.twitter.com/Te2jrcMhKB
— MLB (@MLB) May 27, 2026
Overall, the season has been a smashing success, despite a lot of people writing him off. There were plenty of articles like this one that thought Schmitt would be traded or an afterthought this season with San Francisco.
Let’s dive deeper into why Casey Schmitt is on such a heater right now in fantasy baseball.
Schmitt’s First Three Seasons Were a Mixed Bag
When Casey Schmitt debuted with the Giants in 2023, he looked like a potential everyday player after a scorching first week in the majors. However, pitchers quickly adjusted, and Schmitt struggled to make adjustments at the plate. He finished his rookie season batting just .206/.255/.324 with five home runs and a paltry 58 wRC+.
The 2024 season was largely a lost year. Schmitt appeared in only 40 major-league games as he bounced between AAA and the majors, unable to secure a regular role. While he hit six home runs and posted a .760 OPS in a small sample, his .283 on-base percentage and lack of consistent playing time prevented him from establishing himself as an everyday player.
In 2025, Schmitt received a larger opportunity but still failed to break out. Across 95 games, he hit .237/.305/.401 with 12 home runs, producing roughly league-average offense while continuing to strike out way too much. After three seasons, he owned a career .228 batting average, .283 OBP, and 85 wRC+. That led to the Giants signing Luis Arraez and seemingly forcing Schmitt to the bench.
That apparently lit a spark of some kind, because everything for Schmitt has been better in 2026.
Schmitt Has Improved His Approach and Bat Speed
The biggest difference for Schmitt in 2026 has been the quality of contact, particularly hard contact. His barrel rate has jumped to 14.6%, a massive improvement from the 6.7% mark he posted as a rookie and well above the 9.0% rate he managed in 2025. At the same time, his hard-hit rate has climbed into the 45% range after sitting at 34% in 2023, 36% in 2024, and 43.8% in 2025. Those gains have translated directly into better expected numbers, with Schmitt posting career highs in xSLG and xwOBA while producing far more hard hits when he puts the ball in play.
Casey Schmitt's second career 2-HR game! pic.twitter.com/MMTX9x2iHp
— MLB (@MLB) May 17, 2026
Schmitt is also getting to that power more consistently because of improved bat speed. Statcast’s bat-tracking metrics have become one of the best indicators of future power production, as hitters who combine fast swings with quality contact generate significantly more barrels and hard-hit balls. Schmitt’s improved bat speed (72.3 miles per hour this year, 71 miles per hour last year) has allowed him to drive pitches better, helping push his barrel rate into the upper tier of hitters.
All of this has also helped contribute to a strikeout rate that is under 20% for the first time in his career.
Playing Time Has Opened Up For Schmitt
At the beginning of the year, there wasn’t a clear spot for Schmitt. He swapped DH and 2B with Rafael Devers for the first few weeks, but Bryce Eldridge now has that distinction. He then rotated between 2B, 3B, and outfield until Heliot Ramos and Harrison Bader got hurt, and now he has a full-time role again.
The Giants need Casey Schmitt in the lineup after their slow start as a team. With Heliot Ramos hurt, he is now starting in left field, and he should add OF eligibility soon. If he keeps hitting, he may rank among the top 10 hitters at four different positions he has played this season, which would be an extraordinary feat.
There was early speculation that Schmitt would play some kind of super-utility role this year with San Francisco. But it’s turned into a situation where Schmitt has been SUPER no matter what role the Giants have put him in for the first third of the season.
Expected Numbers Show This Could Be Here to Stay
A quick glance at Schmitt’s Statcase page shows he is in the 90th percentile in expected slugging percentage in 2026. So his new approach and better plate appearances are leading to results that are seemingly sustainable.
His expected batting average is a strong .277, and his expected slugging rate is .519 (or better than Elly De La Cruz and Bryce Harper this season). Schmitt doesn’t ever look like he is going to turn into a player who walks a whole lot, but if he continues his evolution in his approach, the expected and actual numbers should make up for the lack of patience at the plate.
Schmitt is somehow only rostered in 88% in Fantrax leagues. Give it another couple of weeks of this offensive production, and it will be at 100%.
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