Week 16 Advanced Hitting Stats: Busch Was Snubbed

With the All-Star break upon us, we get to once again talk about which players should and shouldn’t be there. One of the hitters I’ll discuss later should be there. As usual in this column, I’ll use advanced stats to look at three players and how we can view them based on their early-season performances and what we can expect moving forward.

Fantasy Baseball Advanced Hitting Stats

An All-Star Snub

Coming up with an All-Star team isn’t easy. The fact that every team has to be represented doesn’t help, but there’s some difficulty here. One player who clearly should have been spending some time in Atlanta this week, though, is Michael Busch.

Busch concluded his strong first half on Sunday by batting in the leadoff spot for the first time all season. He promptly went deep for the 19th time while surging to a career season. The change of scenery and regular playing time offered with the Cubs has truly worked wonders for Busch.

He’s batting .290 so far this season, which is supported by a .283 xBA. There’s upside within his .550 SLG (.587 xSLG) in what has been an all-around strong season. With 59 RBI, Busch has taken advantage of a strong top of the order in Chicago while also scoring 45 runs. The first baseman is a legitimate four-category fantasy contributor. Perhaps more importantly, there’s nothing we’ve seen to this point that doesn’t suggest he won’t be able to continue that success.

Not only are the numbers there, but with a 16.1% barrel rate and 47.1% hard hit rate, there’s strong quality of contact behind them. Busch’s EV90 (the 90th percentile of his Exit Velocity) comes in at 105. The success he’s generating really shouldn’t be coming as a surprise.

A Burst for Rookie of the Year

You aren’t going to find many that would quibble with Agustin Ramirez’s production so far this year. In 71 games, Ramirez is hitting .242 with 14 home runs and 41 RBI. When you factor in that he plays for the Marlins, Ramirez’s hitting production is even more impressive.

However, he could be better. Ramirez’s .280 xBA comes with upside, as does his .512 xSLG (.470 SLG). The catcher hits the ball hard with a 12% barrel rate and 48.4% hard hit rate, so it’s no surprise that production follows. In fact, if Ramirez improved on his 7.8-degree average launch angle, we could be looking at a 30 home run hitter. His EV90 of 109.5 miles per hour certainly points us in that production.

Improvement…At Some Point

Michael Harris is a better player than his statistics say this season. The talent is there, and an improvement will come. When, though, is a more difficult question to answer.

Harris really is a mixed bag of struggles, along with some strong batted ball metrics. His other numbers do leave something to be desired. Either way, though, Harris is a better player than his .210 batting average, with six home runs, suggests. From a fantasy perspective, Harris does have 44 RBI and 12 stolen bases, so there is some value to be found. At the least, Harris is a buy-low option heading out of the All-Star break.

Harris’ six degree average launch angle is a problem as is his 6.1% barrel rate. The same can be said for his .107 ISO, but his .385 xSLG does represent some upside compared to his .317 SLG. To be clear, neither mark is desired, or what Harris has previously proven to capable of.

Maybe it’s best to reconsider our true expectations for Harris. His .254 xBA represents some solid upside, and when coupled with 12 stolen bases and 44 RBI, makes Harris a solid option. There’s a buy-low opportunity here as long as you are realistic in what you expect from Harris. And that’s how some value can be found.