Week 17 Advanced Pitching Stats: Believe in Boyd

When it comes to evaluating pitchers for fantasy baseball, there are many ways to do so with advanced pitching stats. As we look to improve or rosters for the last two months of the season, nothing is off the table. You don’t always need to take huge swings, so let’s use ERA- to take a look at some options. Can Matt Boyd, Kris Bubic, and Seth Lugo take your team to the next level? Sometimes a smaller, and perhaps more boring, move can do the trick. Let’s dig in a little further.

Fantasy Baseball Advanced Pitching Stats

Believe in Boyd

At first glance, perhaps we should have some concern with Matthew Boyd. He’s 34 years old and with 111.2 innings pitched, he’s surpassed his 110.2 from the last two years combined. However, you can take the other stance and say that Boyd’s left arm is healthy, rested, and fresh. Based on his performance to this point, it’s hard to disagree.

The lower the ERA- the better with 100 being average. This advanced pitching stat is a way of looking at ERA adjusted for both park and league factors. Boyd’s sits at the top of the leaderboard at 58.

That coupled with Boyd’s recent performance is what gives me the most confidence. In June, Boyd had a 1.78 ERA along with the 0.90 ERA in July he took into Tuesday’s start. On the season, Boyd’s ERA is 2.34 with an xERA of 3.32. If anyone thinks that Boyd will slow over the next two months, there could be some value found in looking to acquire him. Even a regression to his 3.32 xERA would be considered perfectly acceptable.

A larger factor in Boyd’s success has been his 1.85 walks per nine innings. With an 8.1% barrel rate, he also limits the quality of contact from opposing hitters. The price shouldn’t be too high here, but buy a continuation of Boyd’s success.

Bubic is the Real Deal

This is what we have been waiting for from Kris Bubic. Alright, maybe not success this strong, but with a 57 ERA-, the left-hander has put his improved health to good use.

Whether we dig deep into advanced pitching stats or simply look at his 2.38 ERA, it has been positive to this point for Bubic. Being on them mound and being healthy has been the most important factor, but his 2.76 FIP and 3.04 xERA both would be acceptable.

Not only is Bubic striking out a batter per inning, but he’s limiting damage across the board. He’s allowed just 0.48 home runs per nine innings with just 5.9% of his fly balls leaving the park. That’s because opposing hitters have just a 6.8% barrel rate against Bubic as they fail to hit the ball well. Keeping the ball on the ground at a rate of 47.4% helps as well.

Being injured last season has helped to depress Bubic’s value, but that shouldn’t be held against him.

Boring is Alright

As you look to add some pitching to your fantasy team, Seth Lugo shouldn’t cost too much on the trade market. However, that might make him a worthy addition.

Lugo’s 70 ERA- puts him above league average and directly ties into his 2.94 ERA. The right-hander consistently outperforms other metrics, and this year’s 4.37 FIP is no different. This is also a situation where looking at another advanced pitching stat can provide more comfort.

The big thing for Lugo is that he needs to keep the ball in the park. His 1.43 home runs allowed per nine innings this season is an outlier and that could lead to issues. Aside from that, as long as you can live with a little dip in strikeouts (7.82 per nine innings), Lugo shouldn’t be sold short.