This has to be a joke at this point. Someone out there in the football universe must be pranking us. What we have seen across the NFL in the first two weeks of the season is just crazy. In one of my survivor pools, we have already gone from over 500 entries to just 118. Another pool has only 30 entries remaining out of 114. This is not an isolated situation, but we will continue marching on. So let’s not waste any more time as we jump into our Week 3 NFL Survivor Picks.
How Did We Do?
While I’d like to report differently, I would be remiss to say that I was immune to the carnage. At one point on Sunday afternoon though, I certainly thought that I was going to come out of the week better than most. I managed to stay away from the Dallas Cowboys this week, so that was a plus. By no means did I actually think the New Orleans Saints were that good, but the Cowboys really did not look good. Did anyone have Derek Carr as one of the top quarterbacks after the first two weeks of the season?
From a Fade perspective, I also felt great about avoiding the Detroit Lions. Baker Mayfield is another quarterback playing above his preseason rank and he led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a strong road victory.
Unfortunately, the actual picks didn’t fare as well as they finished 2-2 for the week. For most of the afternoon, Baltimore appeared to be secure until the Raiders surprised everyone in the fourth quarter and sent a lot people home packing. Kansas City barely pulled out the victory, a key Cincinnati penalty certainly helped, and Houston did handle the Bears with ease Sunday night. Based on pot odds and the number of entries that went bust with the Ravens, losing them could have been worse. Those positive feelings continued until Saquon Barkley dropped a key pass late in the game Monday night. It would have been fine, but then Kirk Cousins decided to show full health and comfort with the Atlanta offense.
However, the biggest miss from Week 2 was not fully giving credit to how bad Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers truly are.
Check out all of our Week 2 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
Week 3 NFL Survivor Picks
Just like last week, and for the next 15 weeks, I’ll go through four picks that I like and one that I’m staying away from. They’ll be ranked in order leading up to the most desirable option along with our lines that we hope to see continue throughout the season.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams – 49ers -7.5
Who will actually catch the ball for either team on Sunday? The Rams have lost not only Puka Nacua but now Cooper Kupp while Tyler Higbee remains sidelined. Matthew Stafford is still a capable veteran quarterback, but his skills will be put to the test now as he throws to Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Johnson, and Tutu Atwell.
The 49ers aren’t the picture of health either with Deebo Samuel now joining Christian McCaffrey on the sidelines. Jordan Mason has proven to be a strong replacement though and Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are still strong receiving options while Juwan Jennings steps up.
Of the two teams, the 49ers have the better defense and that should push things over the edge. The Rams have allowed a league high 438.5 yards per game this year and things don’t show signs of improving. This is their home opener, and also a divisional game, but San Francisco is the better team.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Washington Commanders – Bengals -7.5
The next win for the Bengals will be their first of the season. Our expectation is that it will come Monday night against a Commanders team that had one of the most interesting victories every in Week 2. Washington beat the Giants despite not scoring a touchdown, although they made seven field goals, while allowing three touchdowns. The lack of a healthy kicker doomed New York, and Jayden Daniels picked up his first victory.
While the rookie is certainly an exciting player, especially from a fantasy perspective, he is still adjusting to the NFL. The Commanders are also taking it slow with Daniels as he has yet to throw either a touchdown or interception to this point. He has been efficient completing just 40 of 53 passes, but they have been for only 410 yards.
If weren’t for a late penalty, the Bengals would have picked up the victory last week as Joe Burrow looked a lot better. Now with Tee Higgins slated to return, Cincinnati’s offense will be operating closer to full strength. That should be enough for a home victory.
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots – Jets -6.5
Divisional games are always tough, but we have to work with what we have from a schedule perspective. A low scoring game is expected with an over/under of 38.5 points, and that benefits the home favorites. After a crazy first two games on the road, New York finally gets to have their home opener, and this projects to be a soft landing spot.
Since this is a crazy season, we do have to mention that the Patriots ruined the survivor season for many in Week 1 with their upset in Cincinnati. However, the Patriots didn’t exactly play a strong game, and the Bengals truly couldn’t have played much worse. The Jets are a team, we think, heading in the direction after beating the Titans in Week 2. Aaron Rodgers is gaining comfort in the Jets’ offense and Breece Hall is establishing himself as a stud.
New England is playing things conservatively from an offense perspective. Jacoby Brissett isn’t going to generate any fear, and the Patriots are lacking firepower. With just 122.5 passing yards per game, there isn’t much for New York to worry about. They struggled to stop the run, but that did improve compared to Week 1. Rodgers is the better quarterback, and this is also the best offense the Patriots have faced, based on current performance, thus far.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Denver Broncos – Buccaneers -6.5
We have another low scoring game here as the Broncos head into the bright Florida sun to deal with the heat on Sunday. The Buccaneers are coming off a big win in Detroit last week, while the Broncos scored just six points in a home loss to Pittsburgh.
With rookie quarterback Bo Nix leading the way, Denver’s offense is still looking to find their groove. Nix has yet to throw a touchdown while being picked off four times so far this year. The rookie has only completed 46 of 77 passes for 384 yards with quarterback rating of just 51. Javonte Williams only has 40 rushing yards on the season so no aspect of the Broncos’ offense is currently working.
The same cannot be said for Tampa Bay as Baker Mayfield is already up to 474 passing yards and five touchdowns. Despite being middle of the road when it comes to yardage, the Buccaneers are fourth in the league with 28.5 points per game. That is in part of having the fifth best third down conversion rate at 47.8%.
From the defensive side of things, the Buccaneers have struggled from a yardage perspective but are tied for sixth with just 18 points allowed per game. At this point in his career, it’s unclear whether Nix can emerge from Tampa Bay with a victory. As crazy as it may sound, we can’t expect Nix to outduel Mayfield.
Line 1
Chicago/Kansas City/Tampa Bay
Line 2
Houston/New York
Line 3
Cincinnati
Line 4
San Francisco
Week 2 NFL Survivor Fade
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Carolina Panthers – Raiders -5.5
I fully admit that this doesn’t make any sense. The Raiders are coming off a strong victory that cleared out a lot of survivor entries in Week 2 and the Panthers have simply not looked good. In fact, that might be putting things too kindly as they turn back to Andy Dalton under center.
After upsetting the Ravens, this might present a letdown for a Raiders team that is still trying to figure out their identity. After all, this is the same Las Vegas team that looked terrible in a Week 1 loss to the Chargers. The Panthers couldn’t have looked any worse to begin the season, but the move to Dalton might give them a boost. It’s too easy for the Raiders to underestimate Carolina this week and Dalton is a capable option.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 3 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!