Small samples can be taken way too far sometimes. Statistics take time to stabilize and rushing to judge a player off a tiny sample size can lead to serious misevaluation. However, small sample sizes can also be incredibly useful in looking for both positive and negative indicators in a player. The first article in this mini-series focused on hitters. Guys who in 2024 got limited at-bats but extrapolated out, could have had massive seasons for fantasy baseball managers. The same can be done for pitchers. This article looks at five pitchers whose inning counts may have been small, but could be significant fantasy baseball assets for the 2025 season.
Notable Small Samples from 2024 for Fantasy Baseball 2025
Sean Burke – CWS
White Sox fans do not have a whole lot to get excited about nowadays. With the team stuck in a rebuild, the focus shifts to the future. Finding pieces through trades and the draft will be critical over the next couple of seasons. The silver lining from 2024 may have been the discovery of Sean Burke. Burke was a third-round selection out of Maryland back in 2021. He struggled with command throughout his Minor League career but still worked his way through the system and to the Major Leagues last year. He only pitched 19 innings but struck out 28.9% of the batters he faced. Could Burke continue to find success in 2025? Let’s dive in.
Standing at 6’6”, Burke uses every inch of his size to his advantage. He generates 7” of extension on his pitches which ranks toward the top in baseball. He seems more comfortable from the stretch but showed off better control than expected in his debut last season. Burke walked just 9.2% of batters last year which is much lower than the numbers he posted in the Minor Leagues. His zone percentage hovered right around the league average while generating above-average chase and whiff rates.
Burke works with primarily a three-pitch mix. His fastball sits in the mid-90s but looks even harder thanks to his plus extension. Not only is the velocity a plus, but he also gets over 17” of iVB on the pitch. The pitch is effective up in the zone and should generate a good number of whiffs for a fastball. Home runs are likely to be a factor here, as with most fastball pitchers, but this is certainly a plus offering.
Building off his fastball, Burke throws two secondary offerings. His slider sits around 87 mph and generated a whiff rate of 43.2% last season. Burke is comfortable throwing this pitch in any count but it is an especially strong strikeout pitch to righties. In two-strike counts, right-handed batters whiffed on the slider over 70% of the time. Against lefties, Burke favors the curveball and also mixes in a changeup to keep batters off balance. The curveball grades out as a plus offering according to PLV and the changeup flashes plus potential.
A starter’s arsenal, a very good fastball, high strikeout potential, and an improving walk rate. Burke checks nearly all of the boxes for a 25-year-old pitcher entering his second Major League season. Pitching on the White Sox, wins will be at a premium but he should be able to lock down a rotation spot moving forward. While his 1.42 ERA from last season is unsustainable, Burke’s FIP was just 3.32. If he can post those numbers over a full season, he will become a highly sought-after fantasy asset. Fantasy managers might be wise to get in now before his stock rises even further.
Sean Reynolds – SDP
A relief pitcher? Listen, relief pitchers are not flashy and do not get the attention they deserve. However, they hold value in several fantasy baseball formats such as Saves + holds leagues and Ottoneu. The volatility of relievers makes finding the next great one even more important. The sample size was small, but Sean Reynolds could be that guy. He appeared in just nine games last season for San Diego but struck out 42.9% of batters and finished with a 0.82 ERA. Reynolds is not even guaranteed a roster spot this season but is certainly a player to keep an eye on.
Reynolds has posted strong strikeout rates throughout his professional career. Originally drafted by Miami, nobody paid much attention when he was traded to San Diego during the 2023 season. Reynolds’ fastball/slider combination is the perfect mold of a back-end bullpen arm. His fastball sits in the upper 90s with good extension and 17” of induced vertical break. The movement on the pitch is well above average with good spin. Opponents whiffed on his four-seam over 35% of the time.
Then Reynolds has his slider, which is a filthy strikeout pitch. He will throw it in any count with a good feel for the pitch. Opposing batters whiffed over 45% of the time on his slider. This pitch profiles as his most consistent offering. Burke also mixes in a changeup exclusively to lefties, which he lacks a consistent feel for but gets good downward movement.
Burke fits the mold of a high-leverage relief pitcher. He has two plus offerings that come with high velocity and good strikeout potential. His 0.82 ERA in his small Major League sample from last season is fun to project out. The biggest issue for Reynolds moving forward is control. Reynolds’ zone rate was nearly four percent below the league average. He relies heavily on chase and swings and misses, which could get him in trouble in a larger sample size against Major League hitters. He is worth taking a shot on in deep leagues where holds and high-leverage arms are valuable. In other formats, he is simply a watchlist guy with good stuff but no defined role.
Edwin Uceta – TBR
Another reliever!? The Rays have an uncanny ability to find elite relief pitchers. Their bullpen feels like a constantly revolving door that always winds up producing. This can lead to frustration for fantasy baseball managers trying to identify save opportunities, but it is a huge advantage for Tampa on the field. While the popular belief is that Pete Fairbanks will get the closer role…. What if he doesn’t? The Rays have not been shy about using Fairbanks in other roles before and could opt to turn to their new uncovered gem in Edwin Uceta.
Uceta bounced around from team to team to team between 2021 and 2023. The Dodgers had him first, then he went to Arizona, followed by the Mets, and finally the Cubs before landing with the Rays. Leave it to Tampa to help Uceta unlock his full potential. Uceta’s sample size is not too small for a reliever. He threw 41.2 innings for the Rays finishing the season with a 1.51 ERA. He converted five save opportunities including four in September. Uceta stands out with a 35.8% strikeout rate. After control issues plagued him early on, Uceta walked just five percent of the batters he faced with Tampa. Really his numbers could have looked even better if not for a poor outing in Philly where he gave up three earned in 0.1 innings. Outside of that appearance, Uceta’s ERA in 29 other games was 0.87.
Uceta’s dominance on the mound is backed up by excellent underlying stats. Uceta’s FIP was just 1.70 and his xERA was 1.98. Opposing batters chased 33.8% of the time while whiffing 34% of the time. The introduction of the cutter really helped balance Uceta’s arsenal. Prior to that, Uceta was mostly fastball/changeup but lacked that third offering. Tampa got him to essentially ditch his curveball in favor of a cutter and sweeper. A simple shift in his arsenal has turned Uceta into a dominant reliever.
Now to answer the question on what happens if Uceta becomes the Rays closer. Well, he could turn into the most valuable reliever in fantasy. Uceta’s stuff is excellent and his improved control has helped remove the volatility in his profile. Uceta generates strikeouts, does not walk many batters, and limits hard contact. These are all things that teams look for in a closer. Keep in mind that Fairbanks has never thrown more than 45.1 innings in a Major League season. Uceta’s small sample dominance from 2024 should have all fantasy managers on alert of his potential for the 2025 season.
Drew Rasmussen – TBR
First, it was two relievers in a row, and now it is two Rays in a row. Drew Rasmussen has been plagued by injuries throughout his Major League career. He was forced to undergo his second Tommy John Surgery in 2023 which limited him to 28.2 innings last season. The Rays were extremely cautious with Rasmussen in his return to the mound. He did not pitch more than two innings in any of his games despite making four starts. The good news for fantasy managers and the Rays is that Rasmussen looked healthy.
Health has been the biggest issue for Rasmussen’s fantasy value throughout his career. Since being traded to Tampa Bay, Rasmussen has been dominant on the mound. Rasmussen owns a 2.80 ERA with the Rays and is a reliable fantasy asset when healthy. However, he has only reached the 80 IP mark one time with Tampa Bay back in 2022. Notably, Rasmussen ranked as the 30th-best starter in fantasy the one year he did reach that mark.
In his return to the Major Leagues last season, Rasmussen’s stuff looked incredible. His fastball velocity jumped over 97 mph while he saw similar increases in velocity to each of his other pitches. He showed an increased reliance on his cutter over his sweeper. The cutter has been his best pitch in the past and is the primary reason for his breakout. He struck out 30.2% of batters he faced with the highest whiff rate of his career. Rasmussen’s chase rate was also up and his command looked as strong as ever.
Granted, Rasmussen’s success came in short spurts. Pitchers who move to the bullpen routinely see their stuff tick up when they are not forced to work as deep into games. However, what if Rasmussen’s stuff improvements stick? Pitchers returning from Tommy John Surgery often see their velocity increase, making it possible these improvements carry over into 2025. Already with elite control, any further increase to his strikeout rate would turn Rasmussen into one of the most dominant pitchers in fantasy. TINSTAPP right? There is no such thing as a safe pitcher. If that is the case, fantasy managers should take a shot on the upside in Rasmussen’s profile and hope that he remains healthy in 2025.
Matthew Boyd – CHC
Back with Detroit, Matthew Boyd showed flashes of brilliance. In 2019, Boyd saw his strikeout rate jump up significantly while managing to lower his walk rate down to 6.3%. Boyd was a popular breakout pick heading into 2020 but struggled in the abbreviated COVID season. After that, Boyd was never the same. Injuries have derailed the recent part of his career causing him to bounce from team to team. He signed with the Guardians this last off-season but did not appear in any Major League games until August.
For anybody who remained in on Boyd throughout the struggles and injuries, you deserve a very big congratulations. Boyd made eight starts for Cleveland down the stretch and was a major part of their run to and in the playoffs. In eight regular season starts Boyd posted a 2.72 ERA. He carried over this success into the playoffs starting another three games and finishing with a 0.77 ERA. His success earned him a two-year contract with the Cubs where he should be locked into the starting rotation. Could this finally be the fully developed version of Boyd fantasy managers have been waiting for?
Boyd has always been reliant on his slider to generate strikeouts. However, his slider was especially effective last season generating a whiff rate of over 40%. Boyd has notably increased the horizontal movement on his slider over the past two seasons. This has coincided with a lower arm slot for the slider helping give the pitch more deception, especially to lefties. Although Boyd’s overall usage on the slider declined last season, it still remained his most used pitch to attack lefties. Lefties hit just .200 off the slider last year and did not generate an extra-base hit.
Boyd is going to be 34 for the entirety of 2025 and is not generating much attention from the fantasy community. At this point, the fatigue on Boyd makes it feel impossible for him to ever reach the ceiling many originally believed him to have. However, his small sample from last year makes him a worthy investment. Boyd showed off excellent control with strikeout upside fantasy managers dream of. Remember, in 2019 Boyd pitched 185.1 innings with a 23.9 K:BB%, a 3.88 xFIP, and a 3.61 SIERA. There is almost no risk in taking Boyd but the upside is significant.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
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