All sports fans love to play the hypothetical game. What if that player never dropped that pass? What if the refs made the right call? The list could go on and on. Fantasy baseball is no different. What if a player stayed healthy? What if this former prospect got consistent playing time or made a small tweak to his swing? This makes small sample size success so tantalizing. What if that success continues the following season and the playing time increases? This article looks at five players who put up big numbers in small samples and what that means for their fantasy value in 2025.
Extrapolating Small Samples for Fantasy Baseball 2025
Darion Blanco – OF, KCR
Now 31 years old, there is not a lot of hope left that Darion Blanco will turn into an everyday Major Leaguer. Blanco made his professional debut for Oakland back in 2018 before being traded to Kansas City in 2019. He worked his way slowly through the Minor Leagues and has appeared in games each of the past three seasons for the Royals. Blanco has put up significant numbers in the Minor Leagues but that has failed to translate to success at the Major League level. The one stat that has is stolen bases.
Speed is always a highly sought-after category in fantasy baseball. The new stolen base rules have lessened the stress of finding high-steal players but Blanco’s speed is different. After stealing 24 bases in 2024, Blanco stole 31 last season. Okay, so 31 stolen bases is great over a full season but nothing special. Well, Blanco appeared in just 88 games and generated just 132 plate appearances. If you extrapolate Blanco’s stolen base totals for a 600 PA season, Blanco would have stolen 141 bases. Say Blanco only gets 400 plate appearances next year, his pace still would have been good enough for 94 steals. Even if you reduce his stolen base rate by a factor of. 75%, Blanco still would have been on pace for 70 stolen bases. Blanco’s ability to steal bases could be game-changing for fantasy baseball managers. Now, he just needs consistent playing time.
Blanco has failed to stick as a Major League regular in three seasons. Rarely do we see players get another chance at age 31. The good news is that center field is a wide-open battle for Kansas City. Kyle Isbel is the incumbent and projected starter. Isbel hit just .229 with an 88 wRC+ last season. He also struggles against lefties which further opens the door for Blanco. Other internal options include Tyler Gentry, Drew Waters, and Joey Wiemer, all of whom have gotten chances and struggled at the Major League level. All three of those names are viewed to have more real-life potential than Blanco but none are a sure thing.
So, I am saying there is a chance? There is certainly an opportunity here for Blanco. The issue is that it is difficult to envision him suddenly finding success offensively. Blanco’s approach at the plate is not up to Major League standards as he routinely expands the zone and struggles to make consistent contact. His power is below average and he hits the ball on the ground far too often. He is also a below-average defender despite his elite speed. Blanco could lead the league in stolen bases and only accumulate 400 plate appearances. If injuries force the Royals’ hand, do not be afraid to pick up Blanco and guarantee yourself stolen bases. Fantasy managers just should not expect much more than that from him in 2025.
Jonathan Aranda – INF, TBR
Every year it seems the Rays have several prospects ranked inside the top 100. These prospects put up big Minor League numbers but due to the analytics, fail to get regular playing time at the Major League level. Curtis Mead is one name that instantly comes to mind. The other is Jonathan Aranda who has spent parts of the last three seasons with the Rays but has never accumulated more than 143 plate appearances in a season. Many are hopeful that Aranda will finally see extended playing time in 2025. What should fantasy managers expect from Aranda if he gets regular playing time
Aranda’s numbers have seemingly improved with each season. He posted a 73 wRC+ in 2022, a 101 wRC+ in 2022, and a 113 wRC+ in 2024. Let’s dive into his 2024 numbers to see if we can project a full season’s worth of plate appearances.
We saw flashes of that power finally in 2025. Aranda hit six home runs in just 143 plate appearances last year. His 600 PA pace last season was 25 home runs. Looking at his batted ball data, there is room for even more optimism. Aranda’s barrel rate was up at 16.5% last season. A barrel rate that high would have ranked fifth in all of baseball only trailing Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Brent Rooker. Talk about elite company! Aranda was a candidate to be included in the article released earlier this off-season discussing players who should see more home run luck in 2025. There is no reason to believe that 30 homers is unrealistic for Aranda if he secures everyday playing time.
The big issue for Aranda early in his career has been his hit tool. Aranda hit just .192 in 2022, .230 in 2023, and .234 in 2024. After running high batting averages throughout his time in the Minor Leagues, this has been the biggest surprise. Aranda however made significant improvements to his contact skills and plate discipline in 2024 that should have fantasy managers excited. His whiff rate last year was just 21.9% and his chase rate dropped to 25.6% both better than the league average. Aranda’s sweet spot percentage was also better than the league average. He should see his BABIP luck improve from the .267 number he ran this year. If his BABIP jumps up toward the league average, Aranda could be a .265 hitter with plus pop.
Securing regular playing time will be the biggest challenge for Aranda in 2025. He hit just .176 off lefties last year and the Rays love to platoon players. There is a strong chance Aranda has his at-bats limited again next year, but fantasy managers can dream of Aranda hitting .270 with 30 home runs.
Mike Trout- OF, LAA
This one is obvious. When Trout is on the field he is awesome. One of the best players to ever play the game has seen injuries derail the back half of his career. Trout played in just 29 games last season but still managed to hit 10 home runs and steal six bases. His barrel rate remained up at 17.1% with some of the best batted-ball data in the sport. Despite being 33 years old, Trout managed to post a 90th-percentile sprint speed and is still a big-time threat on the bases. Trout should be healthy heading into 2025 and is always a tempting player to add when he shows up on draft boards.
Extrapolating Trout’s stats makes him an enticing option. His 600 PA pace for homers last season was 48. This is after his 600 PA pace in 2023 was 30, and after he hit 40 home runs in just 119 games in 2022. Trout’s power is among the best in baseball and if he even reached 100 games played he would be a threat for 30 home runs. This upside is game-changing when healthy and could turn Trout into one of the biggest steals of 2025 drafts.
The other exciting part of his 2024 season was the return of his stolen base rate. Trout’s stolen base rates have tapered off after stealing 20+ in three straight seasons from 2016-2018. Trout’s six stolen bases marked his highest total since 2019. His 600 PA pace was 29 steals which would have been his most since 2016. Trout’s speed is not disappearing and he has 20+ stolen base upside.
Will Trout stay healthy for the entirety of 2025? That is probably unlikely. However, fantasy managers should not discount the upside he possesses. Trout is still one of the most talented players in baseball when he is on the field. While his .220 batting average was ugly last season, his xBA still sat up at .271. None of Trout’s skills have shown any signs of regression. If you are looking to hit it big on a pick in the middle rounds, Trout is a great player to target.
Alex Call – OF, WAS
Alex Call has been in professional baseball since the White Sox picked him in the third round of the 2016 draft. He never fully got things going in the Minor Leagues with Chicago before he was sent to Cleveland and ultimately claimed off of waivers by Washington during the 2022 season. Nobody is talking about it, but Call put together really solid numbers in 2024. The sample size is small (30 games), but Call’s offensive production was fantastic. In 113 plate appearances, Call hit three homers, stole five bases, and batted .343. Extrapolated out, Call was on pace for 16 homers and 27 stolen bases to go with his elite batting average.
Call did not look the part in either of his Major League stints in 2022 and 2023 making his 2024 production all the more surprising. Call’s best attribute has always been his hit tool. He posts better than average contact rates while deploying a patient approach. This leads to high walk rates and low strikeout rates. The part of his 2024 season that is clearly unsustainable is the .403 BABIP. Through his first 570 Major League plate appearances, Call’s BABIP was .247. While this was probably unlucky, the jump up to .400 is a complete 180. Call’s xBA was just .245 last season. Without any ability to impact the ball or post elite line drive rates, Call’s batting average will never land above .300 again.
While it is fun to sit here and say Call could be a 16-home-run, and 27-stolen-base player, that is simply unrealistic. When Call’s luck comes back to earth, he is no more than a fourth outfielder at best. His speed is a plus, but in limited playing time, it is difficult to envision him ever eclipsing 15 stolen bases. Jacob Young will beat out Call for the starting center field job and make him irrelevant for fantasy baseball.
Jhonkensy Noel – OF/1B, CLE
Everybody remembers Jhonkensy Noel’s clutch two-out home run in Game 3 of the ALCS. In fact, Noel has become a popular player amongst Cleveland fans despite only playing in 65 games. Noel stands at 6’3” but gives off the aura of a giant. The big outfielder stands at 250 pounds and has hit for massive power at every stop of his professional career. Signed back in 2017, Noel finally got his shot in the Major Leagues in the back half of last season. Despite inconsistent playing time, Noel still crushed 13 home runs and has the kind of power upside that grabs fantasy managers’ attention.
The question is not whether or not Noel can sustain this power. Noel hit a combined 31 home runs between the Major and Minor Leagues last season after hitting 27 in 2023 and 32 in 2022. His power is legit. If Noel were to accumulate 600 plate appearances, his extrapolated total of 39 home runs is not unrealistic. The issue is, can Noel secure a starting spot in Cleveland’s lineup for long enough to become an impactful fantasy asset?
After the signing of Carlos Santana, the clear opening left in the Guardians’ lineup is in right field. Currently, Will Brennan projects to be on the strong side of the platoon with Noel coming in against left-handed pitchers. Brennan owns a career 91 wRC+ and is somebody Noel should be able to move past on the depth chart. The issue is Chase DeLauter. The Guardians’ first-round pick from a couple of years ago made his way to Triple-A last year and projects to be in the Major Leagues at some point in 2025.
To fend off Delauter, Noel is going to need to hit. Strikeouts have plagued Noel throughout his professional career. In the small sample last season, this did not seem to change. Noel struck out over 31% of the time. He chased 45% of the time with a whiff rate of 34.2%. There were only two qualified hitters in all of baseball last year that chased over 40% of the time with a whiff rate of over 30%. Simply put, hitters do not maintain everyday roles with plate discipline metrics like that unless they are providing elite defense. Noel is not going to do that.
Noel’s power upside is significant. If he can improve his hit tool, he has 40 home run upside. However, projecting Noel to lock down a starting role is a long shot. He profiles best as a bench bat who will provide pop against lefties but is mostly irrelevant for fantasy managers.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
