Welcome to the Week 5 fantasy baseball hitting planner! This column is where I dive into the matchups for the upcoming week to help you make the best lineup decisions. I changed the format this week, so let’s get right into that before we get into the numbers.
Hitting Planner Format Change
Until now, I had given higher numbers to better pitchers and lower numbers to lesser pitchers. That meant lower numbers were better for hitters, and higher numbers were worse. However, I received some feedback suggesting that this method was confusing, especially in relation to the rest of the data. If higher numbers are better regarding park effects and other data points, higher numbers should also indicate more favorable matchups, not less favorable ones. That makes sense, and that is how I will proceed going forward, beginning with the Week 5 hitting planner. Apologies for any confusion on that point.
As I did last week, I created a matchup score for each game and averaged them out at the end. This will benefit not only fantasy baseball managers in weekly and daily leagues. From a weekly standpoint, the Minnesota Twins have the most favorable matchups for hitters. I gave them an 8.1 rating out of 10 based on their upcoming matchups with the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels.
Week 5 Schedule Notes
There are a couple of quirks regarding the schedule for Week 5. First, Monday is Patriots Day in the greater Boston area. The Boston Red Sox will host the Chicago White Sox at 11:00 AM EST. If your league locks after the first pitch during a given week, it is imperative that you set your lineups early. There are no other day games on Monday. So, if your league only locks players once their specific games have started, you only need to worry about your Red Sox and White Sox players early.
Boston and Chicago are two of the four teams that play a full seven games this week. The others are Milwaukee and San Francisco, who begin a four-game set in San Francisco on Monday night. Conversely, the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers only play five games this week. This does not mean I would bench Mookie Betts for Garrett Mitchell. But it is something fantasy managers need to consider, especially in leagues where you can swap out hitters on Mondays and Fridays. In those formats, the Cubs and Dodgers only play twice during the “first half” of Week 5.
Ballpark Notes
I have mentioned this in previous columns, but it bears repeating for potential new readers. The ballpark factors are based primarily on last year’s numbers with a three-year rolling average. I want to wait a couple more weeks before numbers begin to stabilize. As of Saturday, 26 of the 30 MLB ballparks had a ballpark factor between 97 and 103 for right-handed hitters this season. There has not been enough variance or enough games played at each park yet to put too much stock into these numbers.
To that end, I am ignoring home games for the Athletics and Tampa Bay Rays until we can gather more data. Both teams are playing in new ballparks for the 2025 season. For the purposes of this column, I am ignoring these games in my park effect calculus. For example, Texas plays the Athletics for three games and then plays in San Francisco for three. Their park factors in this week’s hitting planner only factor in the three games played in San Francisco. Again, this data point will change once we gather more information.
Daily managers should also consider weather, matchup, and ballpark data when deciding who to start on a given day. Though the Chicago Cubs generally have a below-average park factor when it comes to hitting, the winds at Wrigley Field can change quickly, often leading to an offensive explosion. Such an example took place this past Friday. The wind blew out in the friendly confines, and the Cubs squeaked a 13-11 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The teams combined for six home runs among 33 base hits.
With all this in mind, here is the Week 5 hitting planner. Let me know if there is anything else you would like to see added or formatted differently in future editions.
Week 5 Fantasy Baseball Hitting Planner
| TEAM | GAMES | v. LH SP | v. RH SP | HOME | ROAD | LHB PF | RHB PF | Mon | Tues | Wed | Thurs | Fri | Sat | Sun | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 99 | 103 | 7 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 5 | 3.5 | 4.93 | |
| ATH | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | N/A | N/A | 6.5 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 7.27 | |
| ATL | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 99 | 102 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 6 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 6.2 | |
| BAL | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 100.5 | 98.5 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 7 | 2.7 | 6.83 | |
| BOS | 7 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 105.3 | 100.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 6.44 |
| CHC | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 99 | 96 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 4.96 | ||
| CHW | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 104 | 102.5 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.7 |
| CIN | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 107.5 | 106.5 | 7 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 7.23 | |
| CLE | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 99 | 95 | 4.1 | 5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 4.18 | |
| COL | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 107 | 108.5 | 6.5 | 7 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 6.13 | |
| DET | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 97 | 98 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 5.33 | |
| HOU | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 102 | 102 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 5.7 | |
| KC | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 103 | 104 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 6 | 3.5 | 6.52 | |
| LAA | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 100 | 102 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 5.38 | |
| LAD | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 98.4 | 99 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 5.6 | ||
| MIA | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 97.5 | 96 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 5.77 | |
| MIL | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 96.9 | 98.7 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 5.59 |
| MIN | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 102 | 102 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 8.05 | |
| NYM | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 100 | 98.5 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 8 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 4.98 | |
| NYY | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 99 | 97.5 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 5.4 | |
| PHI | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 97.5 | 97 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 8 | 6.9 | 6.45 | |
| PIT | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 99.5 | 100 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 5.77 | |
| SD | 6 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 96.5 | 97.5 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 7 | 6.4 | 7 | 6.73 | |
| SF | 7 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 96 | 97 | 7.2 | 6 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 5.2 |
| SEA | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 100.5 | 98 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 2 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 7 | 5.95 | |
| STL | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 98.5 | 101 | 3.5 | 3 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 6 | 5.42 | |
| TB | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 97.5 | 100 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 5.15 | |
| TEX | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 96 | 97 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 6.83 | |
| TOR | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 100 | 100 | 4 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 6 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 4.82 | |
| WAS | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 104 | 99 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.67 |
