The heat is on for starting pitchers, in many ways, as we enter May. From a literal sense, it’s quickly warming up across the country as spring starts to feel like summer more often than not. This change in high temperatures can actually have an impact on how far the ball travels when hit. In fact, a Washington Post research article from 2023 found that home run rates go up by nearly 2% for every 1.8-degree rise in temperature. Thus, no matter the park dimensions, warming temperatures pose a new challenge for pitchers.
Also, from a figurative sense, many fantasy owners are losing patience with several pitchers having rough starts to their season. While we never recommend dropping an ace, there are many mid-round pitchers who are more easily replaceable. Now, the rising temperatures will only make it tougher for those pitchers to rebound. That’s why I account for location conditions, especially as the seasons change, for each pitcher’s matchups to best project the start confidence rating in the weekly starting pitcher rankings.
More great Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire | Weekly SP Rankings | Pitching Streamers | Two-Start Pitchers | Lineup Analysis | MLB Injury Report | Rookie Report | Advanced Stats | Under the Radar | Overvalued & Undervalued | Bullpen Report
Starting Pitcher Rankings for Week 6 (4/27 – 5/3)
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Opponent | Start Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | MIA | 9 |
| 2 | Max Fried | NYY | @TEX/ BAL | 9 (both matchups) |
| 3 | Paul Skenes | PIT | STL | 9 |
| 4 | Chris Sale | ATL | @COL | 8 |
| 5 | Chase Burns | CIN | COL/ @PIT | 8 (both matchups) |
| 6 | Cole Ragans | KC | @SEA | 8 |
| 7 | Shohei Ohtani | LAD | MIA | 8 |
| 8 | Nolan McLean | NYM | @LAA | 8 |
| 9 | Cristopher Sanchez | PHI | SF | 8 |
| 10 | Michael King | SD | CWS | 8 |
| 11 | Bryan Woo | SEA | KC | 8 |
| 12 | Dylan Cease | TOR | @MIN | 8 |
| 13 | Spencer Strider | ATL | @COL | 7 |
| 14 | Garrett Crochet | BOS | HOU | 7 |
| 15 | Rhett Lowder | CIN | @PIT | 7 |
| 16 | Gavin Williams | CLE | TB | 7 |
| 17 | Tarik Skubal | DET | @ATL | 7 |
| 18 | Jose Soriano | LAA | @CWS | 7 |
| 19 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD | MIA | 7 |
| 20 | Jacob Misiorowski | MIL | @WSH | 7 |
| 21 | Joe Ryan | MIN | SEA/ TOR | 7 (both matchups) |
| 22 | Taj Bradley | MIN | SEA | 7 |
| 23 | Cam Schlittler | NYY | @TEX | 7 |
| 24 | Ryan Weathers | NYY | BAL | 7 |
| 25 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | @MIN | 7 |
| 26 | George Kirby | SEA | @MIN | 7 |
| 27 | Jacob deGrom | TEX | NYY | 7 |
| 28 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | @MIN | 7 |
| 29 | Grant Holmes | ATL | DET | 6 |
| 30 | Ranger Suarez | BOS | @TOR/ HOU | 6 (both matchups) |
| 31 | Nick Lodolo | CIN | COL | 6 |
| 32 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | COL | 6 |
| 33 | Brady Singer | CIN | @PIT | 6 |
| 34 | Parker Messick | CLE | TB/ @ATH | 6 (TB=7 & @ATH=5) |
| 35 | Framber Valdez | DET | @ATL | 6 |
| 36 | Kris Bubic | KC | @ATH/ @SEA | 6 (both matchups) |
| 37 | Michael Wacha | KC | @ATH | 6 |
| 38 | Emmet Sheehan | LAD | @STL | 6 |
| 39 | Freddy Peralta | NYM | WSH | 6 |
| 40 | Jesus Luzardo | PHI | SF/ @MIA | 6 (both matchups) |
| 41 | Braxton Ashcraft | PIT | STL/ CIN | 6 (both matchups) |
| 42 | Logan Webb | SF | @PHI | 6 |
| 43 | Drew Rasmussen | TB | @CLE | 6 |
| 44 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | NYY | 6 |
| 45 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | @MIL/ @CHC | 5 (both matchups) |
| 46 | Eduardo Rodriguez | ARI | @MIL | 5 |
| 47 | Zac Gallen | ARI | @CHC | 5 |
| 48 | Jeffrey Springs | ATH | CLE | 5 |
| 49 | Reynaldo Lopez | ATL | DET/ @COL | 5 (both matchups) |
| 50 | Bryce Elder | ATL | DET | 5 |
| 51 | Chris Bassitt | BAL | HOU | 5 |
| 52 | Kyle Bradish | BAL | @NYY | 5 |
| 53 | Payton Tolle | BOS | @TOR | 5 |
| 54 | Connelly Early | BOS | HOU | 5 |
| 55 | Shota Imanaga | CHC | ARI | 5 |
| 56 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | TB | 5 |
| 57 | Casey Mize | DET | @ATL/ TEX | 5 (@ATL=4 & TEX=6) |
| 58 | Mike Burrows | HOU | @BOS | 5 |
| 59 | Noah Cameron | KC | @ATH | 5 |
| 60 | Seth Lugo | KC | @SEA | 5 |
| 61 | Yusei Kikuchi | LAA | @CWS | 5 |
| 62 | Max Meyer | MIA | PHI | 5 |
| 63 | Brandon Woodruff | MIL | ARI | 5 |
| 64 | Bailey Ober | MIN | TOR | 5 |
| 65 | Clay Holmes | NYM | WSH/ @LAA | 5 (both matchups) |
| 66 | Kodai Senga | NYM | @LAA | 5 |
| 67 | Will Warren | NYY | @TEX | 5 |
| 68 | Andrew Painter | PHI | SF | 5 |
| 69 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | @MIA | 5 |
| 70 | Bubba Chandler | PIT | STL/ CIN | 5 (both matchups) |
| 71 | Randy Vasquez | SD | CHC/ CWS | 5 (CHC=4 & CWS=6) |
| 72 | Tyler Mahle | SF | @PHI/ @TB | 5 (@PHI=4 & @TB=6) |
| 73 | Robbie Ray | SF | @TB | 5 |
| 74 | Luis Castillo | SEA | @MIN/ KC | 5 (@MIN=4 & KC=6) |
| 75 | Emerson Hancock | SEA | KC | 5 |
| 76 | Nick Martinez | TB | @CLE | 5 |
| 77 | Shane McClanahan | TB | SF | 5 |
| 78 | MacKenzie Gore | TEX | @DET | 5 |
| 79 | Michael Soroka | ARI | @MIL | 4 |
| 80 | Jacob Lopez | ATH | KC/ CLE | 4 (both matchups) |
| 81 | Luis Severino | ATH | KC | 4 |
| 82 | J.T. Ginn | ATH | CLE | 4 |
| 83 | Shane Baz | BAL | HOU/ @NYY | 4 (HOU=5 & @NYY=3) |
| 84 | Trevor Rogers | BAL | @NYY | 4 |
| 85 | Matthew Boyd | CHC | @SD/ ARI | 4 (both matchups) |
| 86 | Joey Cantillo | CLE | @ATH | 4 |
| 87 | Jack Flaherty | DET | TEX | 4 |
| 88 | Keider Montero | DET | TEX | 4 |
| 89 | Lance McCullers Jr. | HOU | @BAL | 4 |
| 90 | Spencer Arrighetti | HOU | @BOS | 4 |
| 91 | Roki Sasaki | LAD | @STL | 4 |
| 92 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | @LAD | 4 |
| 93 | Eury Perez | MIA | PHI | 4 |
| 94 | Luis Gil | NYY | BAL | 4 |
| 95 | Aaron Nola | PHI | @MIA | 4 |
| 96 | Mitch Keller | PIT | STL | 4 |
| 97 | German Marquez | SD | CWS | 4 |
| 98 | Landen Roupp | SF | @TB | 4 |
| 99 | Jack Leiter | TEX | NYY/ @DET | 4 (NYY=3 & @DET=5) |
| 100 | Max Scherzer | TOR | BOS | 4 |
| 101 | Trey Yesavage | TOR | @MIN | 4 |
| 102 | Zack Littell | WSH | @NYM/ MIL | 4 (both matchups) |
| 103 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | @CHC | 3 |
| 104 | Aaron Civale | ATH | KC | 3 |
| 105 | Brandon Young | BAL | HOU | 3 |
| 106 | Brayan Bello | BOS | @TOR | 3 |
| 107 | Edward Cabrera | CHC | @SD | 3 |
| 108 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | @SD | 3 |
| 109 | Erick Fedde | CWS | LAA | 3 |
| 110 | Noah Schultz | CWS | @SD | 3 |
| 111 | Slade Cecconi | CLE | @ATH | 3 |
| 112 | Michael Lorenzen | COL | ATL | 3 |
| 113 | Ryan Weiss | HOU | @BAL/ @BOS | 3 (@BAL=4 & @BOS=2) |
| 114 | Jack Kochanowicz | LAA | @CWS/ NYM | 3 (@CWS=4 & NYM=2) |
| 115 | Reid Detmers | LAA | NYM | 3 |
| 116 | Justin Wrobleski | LAD | @STL | 3 |
| 117 | Brandon Sproat | MIL | ARI | 3 |
| 118 | Kyle Harrison | MIL | @WSH | 3 |
| 119 | Simeon Woods Richardson | MIN | TOR | 3 |
| 120 | Carmen Mlodzinski | PIT | CIN | 3 |
| 121 | Matthew Liberatore | STL | LAD | 3 |
| 122 | Walker Buehler | SD | CHC | 3 |
| 123 | Adrian Houser | SF | @PHI | 3 |
| 124 | Steven Matz | TB | @CLE/ SF | 3 (both matchups) |
| 125 | Eric Lauer | TOR | BOS/ @MIN | 3 (both matchups) |
| 126 | Cade Cavalli | WSH | @NYM | 3 |
| 127 | Colin Rea | CHC | ARI | 2 |
| 128 | Davis Martin | CWS | LAA | 2 |
| 129 | Sean Burke | CWS | @SD | 2 |
| 130 | Tomoyuki Sugano | COL | @CIN/ ATL | 2 (both matchups) |
| 131 | Ryan Feltner | COL | @CIN | 2 |
| 132 | Peter Lambert | HOU | @BAL | 2 |
| 133 | Chris Paddack | MIA | @LAD/ PHI | 2 (both matchups) |
| 134 | Chad Patrick | MIL | ARI/ @WSH | 2 (both matchups) |
| 135 | Connor Prielipp | MIN | SEA/ TOR | 2 (both matchups) |
| 136 | Christian Scott | NYM | WSH | 2 |
| 137 | Dustin May | STL | @PIT/ LAD | 2 (@PIT=3 & LAD=1) |
| 138 | Kyle Leahy | STL | @PIT | 2 |
| 139 | Michael McGreevy | STL | LAD | 2 |
| 140 | Matt Waldron | SD | CHC | 2 |
| 141 | Jesse Scholtens | TB | SF | 2 |
| 142 | Kumar Rocker | TEX | @DET | 2 |
| 143 | Foster Griffin | WSH | MIL | 2 |
| 144 | Anthony Kay | CWS | LAA/ @SD | 1 (both matchups) |
| 145 | Kyle Freeland | COL | @CIN | 1 |
| 146 | Jose Quintana | COL | ATL | 1 |
| 147 | Walbert Urena | LAA | NYM | 1 |
| 148 | Janson Junk | MIA | @LAD | 1 |
| 149 | Andre Pallante | STL | @PIT | 1 |
| 150 | Hunter Dobbins | STL | @PIT | 1 |
| 151 | Patrick Corbin | TOR | BOS | 1 |
| 152 | Miles Mikolas | WSH | @NYM | 1 |
| 153 | Jake Irvin | WSH | MIL | 1 |
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