Pitching isn’t easy. The first month of the season is always going to be difficult as pitch counts are still being built up. Not only are pitchers still finding their groove, but the weather is an issue, and opposing offenses are still making themselves known. Seeing results on the field is one thing, but finding supporting data to back up the success takes things to the next level. Let’s dig into the advanced pitching stats of three pitchers whose ERAs and FIPs support that success.
Fantasy Baseball Advanced Pitching Stats
An All-Star in Philadelphia?
If Cristopher Sanchez continues pitching the way he has for the last season-plus, then a berth in the All-Star game should be on its way this summer. The left-hander has built on a strong 2024 season in which he had a 3.32 ERA over 31 starts and 181.2 innings. At this point, Sanchez has proven that his success wasn’t a fluke. In fact, in some areas, he’s improved through eight starts this season.
After there was some concern surrounding the health of Sanchez’s arm, he alleviated that earlier this week. On Monday, Sanchez struck out eight batters in six innings of work while allowing two runs on four hits and three walks. That brought his ERA down to 2.91 on the season to go along with a 3.10 xERA. Sanchez is striking out 10.80 batters per nine innings while also benefiting from a 56.4% ground ball rate.
The increase in strikeouts is a pleasant development for Sanchez. What really catches my attention though, is the degree to which Sanchez is keeping opposing hitters off balance. When he’s not striking people out, Sanchez is greatly suppressing the damage. He has an average launch angle against of just four degrees along with a 4.5% barrel rate. Ultimately, that will support continued success.
Hicks Should be Targeted
Yes, I know how to read the back of Jordan Hicks’ baseball card. However, we also shouldn’t take it at face value either. And by looking past the surface stats, there is value to be gained from a fantasy baseball perspective.
Hicks’ ERA through his first eight starts of the season is 5.82, and when coupled with a 1-4 record, he’s not someone who jumps off the page from a fantasy perspective. However, a 3.55 xERA and 3.18 FIP certainly paint things in a much better light. The right-hander isn’t going to truly overpower hitters with just over eight strikeouts per nine innings, but it isn’t a true liability either.
One cause for optimism is that Hicks is keeping the ball in park allowing just 0.43 home runs per nine innings. He’s also working to overcome a .344 BABIP and a strand rate of just 57.9%. Each of those items should normalize which will bring Hicks back closer to his FIP. With a 58.5% ground ball rate, Hicks is doing a good job of limiting the damage. It also helps that opposing hitters have a barrel rate of just 4.6%. He might be more of streaming option, but Hicks should be on your radar.
Bradley Can Take the Next Step
When it comes to upside, Taj Bradley certainly has it. That’s been on display at times over the past few years, but consistency hasn’t been his friend. However, there’s enough there to keep us on the hook. What initially is getting me there is Bradley’s 10th-lowest opposing barrel rate. It currently sits at just 5.1%, which means that hitters are having trouble squaring up the right-hander.
That’s the first step in success for Bradley, but we also shouldn’t buy in unconditionally. Bradley’s 4.24 ERA is less than ideal, but his 3.43 xERA does offer up some optimism. This season, the biggest concern is that Bradley’s strikeouts are down as he struggles to find consistency. On a long-term basis, though, he should be good for a strikeout per inning. At some point, the breakout will come. It’s very possible that it happens this year, but there still could be some bumps along the way.
