One of the worst mistakes a fantasy baseball manager can make in drafts is burning a pick on an overrated player, especially in the top 150 range. Fantasy managers expect those players to pan out and return solid value. The danger with hitters, is spending draft capital on overrated hitters, that do not live up to the hype.
Below are my top three overrated hitters ahead of the 2025 baseball season, along with reasons why you should avoid them at cost in your drafts. I used NFBC ADP over the last 10 days as of writing (2/19) for the analysis.
3 Overrated Hitters to Avoid
Royce Lewis, 3B, MIN
Three years into his professional career, Royce Lewis has yet to play more than 82 games in a season or earn more than 325 plate appearances. Many could consider him a post-hype sleeper type of fantasy baseball player, but at pick 114 as 3B9, I am fading.
In the last two seasons combined, Lewis has put up top 50 fantasy baseball numbers. He has totaled 31 homers, 76 runs, 99 RBI, and six steals (all of those steals came in 2023), along with a .265 AVG across 564 PAs. Those numbers nearly match Manny Machado’s totals from last season, and Machado carries an ADP of 34 in the last 10 days on NFBC.
I view Lewis as the Jacob deGrom of hitters. He is a player with elite upside and talent, who simply cannot stay healthy. So why gamble? Yes, Lewis has some great batted-ball data. His 11% barrel rate would have been fifth best among qualified third basemen last season. He owns a career HardHit rate that hovers above league average. He also compares very similarly to Machado when it comes to plate discipline.
All that said, fantasy baseball managers who draft him have to plan for significant missed time. Fantasy managers have to make a decision based on quantity or quality. And around pick 100, I prefer quantity, especially when you consider having to either spend draft capital later to get Lewis’ fill-in or spend a waiver claim on a replacement level (or worse) player.
Jake Burger goes immediately after Lewis and has played in at least 135 games each of the last two seasons. Since 2017, Matt Chapman has played in fewer than 140 games in a season twice – in 2020 and his rookie season. He goes 12 picks later than Lewis.
This is not a gamble I am willing to take, and the hype surrounding Lewis makes him one of my biggest hitting busts of 2025.
Bo Bichette, SS, TOR
Bo Bichette’s draft stock seems to be riding on hopes he can return to his 2021 form. While he may bounce back somewhat from an injury-plagued 2024, expecting another 20/20 season may be unrealistic. This makes Bichette one of my most overrated hitters this year.
Since that All-Star season, Bichette’s stolen base total has declined each season. Bichette has shown other troubling trends, even before last season. From 2021 to 2023, Bichette’s home run, run, and RBI totals decreased despite reaching at least 600 PAs in each season. His ISO score also dropped each year.
Between 2022 and 2023, Bichette also saw his HardHit rate decline, as well as his average exit velocity. Because of this, I worry about him reaching 20 home runs this season. This is a concern reflected in his projections – only Steamer projects him for 20 homers.
On top of that, Bichette has averaged a 47% GB rate and a 30% flyball rate for his career. This means he does not hit the ball in the air very often. And while his line drive rate is excellent for accruing hits, his ISO score shows those hits are not turning into extra bases.
Dansby Swanson goes 50 picks later and has similar Steamer projections to Bichette, aside from steals (better) and AVG (worse). Masyn Winn goes two to three rounds later and should return better value.
Brice Turang, SS, MIL
I wrote about Brice Turang in my Second Base Busts article, but my opinion has not changed. He is not just a second base bust, but one of my top overall hitter busts as well. Fantasy managers are overvaluing his steals from 2024 and have set unrealistic expectations.
His ADP has not changed much since I wrote about him in mid-January. He still goes as 2B8 at pick 137 overall almost exactly a month later.
The bullet points are basically
- 50 steals is probably his ceiling
- He lacks hard contact and homers will be limited
- He does not pull the ball
- He hits the ball on the ground more than half the time
Bryson Stott, Andres Gimenez, and Luis Rengifo all project for more than 20 steals and better HR, R, RBI, and AVG than Turang. All of them go between 20-40 picks later.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
