Similar to sleepers, busts do not have to just be from a certain part in the draft. Busts do not have to be only early picks that do not pan out. Basically, any player who does not perform up to their draft value can be a bust. Below, you will find my top second base busts to avoid at cost in 2025 fantasy baseball drafts.
5 Second Base Busts To Avoid
Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers
Fantasy baseball managers have drafted Brice Turang as 2B8, with a 135 ADP this offseason. Turang’s 2024 has definitely driven up his price. In his sophomore season, he swiped 50 bags and hit .254. While that is absolutely impressive, it may be hard for Turang to replicate.
Steamer projects Turang for 10 home runs, but fewer runs, RBI, and steals than last season. He may find it difficult to reach 10 home runs, though, with a six-degree launch angle and hard contact numbers far below the league average. Turang drives the ball well but does not pull the ball, which will limit his ability to sustain a higher BABIP and batting average. He also had a 52% groundball rate last season, which could be problematic.
Check out this blind resume of Steamer projections:
Player A: 10 home runs, 64 runs, 55 RBI, 35 steals, .254 AVG
Player B: Eight home runs, 66 runs, 53 RBI, 29 steals, .262 AVG
These two players compare pretty closely. Player A is Turang, and Player B is Maikel Garcia. Last season, Turang and Garcia both hit seven homers, but Garcia outscored him in runs and RBI. Garcia has a 210 ADP as 2B18.
Fantasy managers should be more wary of Turang, who may have hit his ceiling in 2024, rather than his floor. This could result in Turang ending up as a bust in 2025.
Maikel Garcia, Kansas City Royals
Maikel Garcia also ranks as one of my top fantasy baseball busts at pick 210 and 2B18. Similar to Turang, Garcia’s most valuable asset is his ability to steal. He also hit early in the lineup last season, leading off in 107 games, which helped him reach 84 runs scored.
Jonathan India may throw a wrench into that this season, as he led off for the Reds last season. India picked up 31 more walks than Garcia in three fewer PAs as a leadoff hitter. He also had more hits, doubles, homers, and a better OBP. This could result in Garcia hitting farther down in the lineup, with fewer chances to pick up counting stats for fantasy managers. India has gone 40 picks after Garcia in ADP so far this season.
Zack Gelof, Brendan Donovan, Colt Keith, Willi Castro, Brandon Lowe, and Jake Cronenworth are players being drafted after Garcia, but I would draft them all ahead of him. Of those players, Garcia ranks last in projected homers and RBI, and second to last in runs scored. Out of the bunch, he ranks second in projected steals, and projects for the best AVG. Is that enough to make him a top-20 second baseman?
I worry about his ability to produce like he did last season and think he could be one of the top second base busts this year.
Jackson Holliday, Baltimore Orioles
Jackson Holliday came into last season with a lot of hype as one of, if not the top prospect in the league. His ADP this season shows that fantasy managers still think highly of him despite his struggles for the Orioles in a 60-game debut.
Holliday has been drafted around pick 220 as 2B17, but ranks outside of my top-250 overall players, and just outside of my top-25 second basemen. The Orioles have a bunch of middle infield depth and would have to finagle some things to get Holliday at-bats either at shortstop or second base. That is not out of the question, but does call into question just how many at-bats he can get.
Fantasy managers may think Holliday can outperform his projections, but Baltimore may want him to start the season in the minors again. He flashed his potential hitting five home runs, and stealing four bases, but also struck out a third of the time and hit just .189. If the O’s start him in the minors, and he struggles again, he may not return his current draft value.
He has potential, and should not be avoided overall. But Holliday’s draft value and the possibility of not living up to the hype this season make him a major bust candidate.
Kristian Campbell, Boston Red Sox
Similar to Holliday, Kristian Campbell’s hype seems to be driving up his draft cost. He has a 359 ADP as 2B27 but is a candidate to spend time in the minors for the Red Sox to start the season.
Campbell looked great across three levels of the minors last season, totaling 20 home runs, 94 runs, 77 RBI, and 24 steals, with a .330 AVG. That was bolstered by a .362 AVG in 56 games at AA, where he had a .411 BABIP and tallied 17 of his steals. He still seems to have something to prove at AAA, where his strikeout rate climbed and AVG dropped. Boston may want to see a bit more consistency there before elevating him to the show.
If that happens, it will be a challenge to get to the 10 homers and nine steals in 368 PAs that Steamer projects for him.
Campbell has a shot to hit for a decent AVG whenever he reaches the majors. He never left a level of the minors with an AVG worse than .267. That gives him value that other players past pick 300 do not necessarily have. However, if he stays in the minors for a while, he could be one of the top second base busts this year.
Jose Caballero, Tampa Bay Rays
Jose Caballero’s positional flexibility and ability to steal bases definitely add value. Is he worth drafting as 2B26 at pick 294? He is a career .225 hitter who Steamer projects to regress in every roto stat from last season.
Let’s do another blind resume with 2025 Steamer projections. Which player would you rather have?
Player A: six home runs, 32 runs, 27 RBI, 24 steals, and a .223 AVG
Player B: six home runs, 46 runs, 44 RBI, 15 steals, and a .276 AVG
Caballero is Player A, and Player B is Otto Lopez whose ADP is 90 picks after Caballero. What hurts Caballero most is the Rays’ positional flexibility, and their lack of clear starters in the infield. He just simply does not have a home. This means Caballero may find it difficult to get consistent at-bats, which hurts his chances to produce.
Caballero should probably go later in drafts and is my final second base bust candidate for 2025.
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First of all, I don’t think it is possible for pick 359 to be a bust. 90% of picks greater than 250 will not be fantasy relevant. My opinion is you are looking for upside after pick 250. Campbell has plenty of this.
Second your post makes it seem as if Campbell struggled in AAA. He was on a 150-game pace of 32 HR, 32 SB, 134 Runs and 134 RBI. I would take half of that with pick 359. Did his K% go up in AAA? Yes. Did his BB% increase? Yes. Did his HR/PA go up in AAA? Yes. In fact, it went up 50%.
I am not sure if Campbell will start the season in AAA or in Boston. But if he is pick 359 then he is a taxi squad pick, even in 15 team leagues. I would not hesitate to draft Campbell knowing that he may beat out Vaughn Grissom and David Hamilton. But most important it is impossible to have a bust at pick 359. But it is possible to pick a player that wins the league for you at pick 359.
If you draft Campbell, and he spends all but September in the minors, which is increasingly looking like it could happen, then that was a wasted pick. You could have picked someone else there to rotate into your team, or keep as a streaming slot instead of holding onto a player that may not see the field for a significant time.