In this series, I will be going through each position to identify potential value based on Average Draft Position (ADP). The best time to find these ADP values is early in the draft season when there are still a lot of unknowns. This includes players returning from injury, prospects on the verge of a breakout, positional battles within a team, or a player looking for a bounce-back season.
When looking at your team’s construction as you prepare for your drafts, we generally don’t find value in the early rounds. We expect the players we draft high to return their value and when they are combined with multiple players who end up outperforming their draft position, it becomes a winning formula for a successful fantasy team. Let’s dive in and look at some catchers and first basemen.
2025 Catcher/First Base ADP Values
Ryan Mountcastle – Baltimore Orioles
There are about five guys at the first base position who I consider elite fantasy picks that are going in the early rounds of drafts. After those guys, the position really falls off which does create a scenario where we can wait a bit and load up a couple of players who could smash their value based on where they are being drafted.
The first player who stands out is Ryan Mountcastle, who is currently being drafted around pick 255 on average, a 22nd-round grade in standard 12-team leagues and outside the Top 20 at the position.
While the home run numbers have slowly declined since he put up 33 in his rookie season, he is pretty solid across the board. He seems to have sacrificed power for contact as the average of .270 over the last two years is 20 points higher than his .252 average in the first two full seasons. That doesn’t mean the power isn’t there, however, as looking at his Baseball Savant page, he has a 90th percentile bat speed and 74th percentile hard contact rate. It was also very positive that he posted an xSLG(.445) 20 points higher than his SLG(.425) and an xwOBA(.332) that was 16 points higher than his wOBA(.316).
He isn’t a league-winning pick by any means but all signs point to him having a solid season while not costing a ton of draft capital. I am projecting him to finish somewhere in the 12-15 range at the position.
Paul Goldschmidt – New York Yankees
Has Goldschmidt finally hit a wall at age 37, now going into his 15th season? The Yankees sure don’t think so as they signed him to a one-year deal to hit in the middle of their already powerful lineup.
There is no argument about the steady decline over the last three years and by no means do I feel he is the 30/100/100 player he was in his prime. With that said, signs are pointing to a rebound season, starting from a power perspective as his hard contact rate of 49.6%(via MLB Savant) in 2024 was the third-highest of his career and in the 92 percentile overall. While not a huge gap, the expected stats in the form of batting average, slugging percentage, and wOBA were all higher than the base number. It is also positive when analyzing his BABIP of .308 last season which was 20 points lower than it was in 2023 and nearly 40 points lower than his career average.
Goldschmidt is currently going off the board around the 16th round and outside the Top 15 at the position. In his new home, hitting the middle of a lineup that includes Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Cody Bellinger, Goldy has a dream scenario for a bounce-back season and a chance to finish as a Top 10 first baseman.
Ivan Herrera – St. Louis Cardinals
With the aforementioned Goldschmidt heading to New York, the Cardinals have announced that Willson Contreras will play first base this season. Why is this important? It opens up more playing time for young catchers Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages. For fantasy purposes, I prefer Herrera as he has shown more upside offensively. He has come through the Cardinals organization very slowly over the last eight years but has progressed at every level including an impressive 2023 AAA season where he posted .297/.451/.500 slash line.
He was a part-time player at the big league level last year but looked good posting a .301/.372/.428 slash line. Going deeper, he also posted a .366 xwOBA which is would be in the 95th percentile if he qualified. He has above-average bat speed, is patient at the plate, and has the potential to grow into a 15-20 homer catcher.
He is currently going around Pick 250 in drafts and somewhere around the 18th/19th catcher. There are some question marks in terms of sharing catching duties with Pages but if he continues his ascension I see Herrera getting 300-350 at-bats and could end the season approaching the Top 10 at the catcher position.
Who are your favorite ADP values this season? Drop some names in the comments below. For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
