We are now about 15% of the way into the 2025 season, which makes me happy, as the statistical sample sizes are becoming more and more relevant for our in-season analysis. This is especially true for starting pitchers who have now made around three to four starts and somewhere in the range of 300 or more total pitches thrown.
In the preseason, I discussed Stuff+ and how it becomes a reliable metric for future success just 80 pitches into the season. In this article, I will be looking at some starting pitchers who have taken huge strides when comparing their early-season Stuff+ numbers with their 2024 numbers. We will then dig in further and start to analyze Stuff+ on an individual pitch level, with those sample sizes also reaching reliable levels.
With most of these players already on rosters, we can use this analysis to formulate a list of trade targets to help improve our fantasy baseball teams in redraft and dynasty formats. Let’s get started.
2025 Fantasy Baseball: Red Hot Starting Pitchers
Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds)
He is coming off his first hiccup of the season, but the numbers still tell me he has made huge strides from 2024, suggesting the ceiling has still not been reached. That is really saying something as he finished 2024 with a 2.75 ERA/3.03 xERA and 113 Stuff+ overall. Out of all qualified pitchers, Greene has seen the biggest improvement in his Stuff+ which is sitting at 127 overall after five starts.
He is primarily a two-pitch pitcher, throwing a four-seam fastball 59% of the time and a slider 31% of the time. Both pitches have seen a significant improvement as the fastball was just above-average in 2024 at 105 Stuff+ and now sits at 120, while the Slider was already elite at 128 Stuff+ in 2024 but now sits at an incredible 145, which is second behind only Garrett Crochet.
While the Location+ is still below average at 95, he has dropped the walk rate in half and sits with a 5.83 K/BB rate while striking out 30% of batters he faces. He is on a path to be considered a favourite for the NL Cy Young award and should be on your trade target radar for season-long formats and most definitely in dynasty formats.
Cristopher Sanchez (Philadelphia Phillies)
Over his first two full seasons as a starter in the majors, Sanchez has been very effective, posting a 3.36 ERA, 3.60 xERA, and 3.16 xFIP. For fantasy, however, he remained in the second or third tier due to a lack of strikeout upside(21.7%). That has changed in a huge way in 2025 as he is currently sitting with a 30.7% K rate and 15.5% swinging strike rate through four starts.
The biggest factor in that has been the sinker, which he throws around 47% of the time. In 2024, that sinker had a slightly above-average 103 Stuff+ and currently sits at 115. The pitch is only creating a 16% K rate, but the location and effectiveness have set up his elite changeup, which has gone from 113 Stuff+ in 2024 to 116 this season while creating a ridiculous 53.8% whiff rate.
With his previous success and now added upside, I am very confident that Sanchez can continue to dominate hitters and be an ace pitcher on fantasy baseball teams. He was drafted outside the Top 40 at starting pitcher and can still likely be acquired at #2 starter prices, but has ace potential and for dynasty, has the potential to be a Top 10 arm going forward. Sanchez did leave his last start with forearm soreness, so you’ll want to keep an eye on that situation.
Hunter Brown (Houston Astros)
Another pitcher who has massively paid off his ADP thus far is Hunter Brown. Unlike the other two, Brown has a large arsenal and is currently throwing six different pitches over 5% of the time. He throws two different types of fastballs, with the four-seamer at 36% usage and a sinker at 21% usage. The four-seamer has a Stuff+ of 125 while the Sinker has a Stuff+ of 119, both of which are ranked #2 overall in 2025. Both of those pitches have seen huge increases in those numbers in comparison to 2024, which has him sitting with the third-largest overall Stuff+ increase(105-113) year over year. His fastball also currently sits in the 99th % percentile in terms of run value, and the four-seamer is creating an elite 42% K rate.
Like the other two above, you are likely paying a premium in a trade right now, but all three have ace potential and could lead you to a fantasy baseball championship.
Who are your favorite shortstop ADP values this season? Drop some names in the comments below. For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
