If you have played fantasy baseball for any amount of time you know the vast number of stats available and if you are a stats nerd like me, you are always looking for new ways to analyze the game. Good news as some very smart analytical minds in Eno Sarris and Max Bay created three metrics(Pitching+, Location+, and Stuff+) that I have quickly fallen in love with over the last two seasons. In this article, I am going to go over what each metric is, how we can use it for fantasy research, and then look at some pitchers who are trending up based on these metrics. Let’s get started.
The New “+” Metrics Explained
Each metric is based on the “+” scale which takes in the data from any stat and puts it into a scale where 100 is average. A ranking higher than 100 is above average for that stat and a number below 100 is below average for that stat. With so many stats in baseball, this scale helps us identify much easier if a player is good or bad at a particular stat.
These metrics can be used to help you prepare for fantasy baseball drafts and can also be used in-season to identify free-agent pickups, trade targets, and more. According to the creators, Stuff+ is by far the most reliant metric in season as it takes only about 80 pitches for it to be stable and reliable while Location+ takes about 400 pitches.
With all that, let’s have a look at what each metric is and how I use it.
Stuff +
First up is my favorite of the new metrics and the one I use the most for fantasy baseball analysis. Stuff + essentially looks at how nasty a pitch or collection of pitches is based on physical characteristics like release point, velocity, vertical and horizontal movement, and spin rate.
I like to start my fantasy baseball draft research for pitchers by looking at year-to-year Stuff+ trends to identify positive or negative regression. From there, I will take the pitchers who stand out the most and look at their pitch arsenals and the Stuff+ on each of them. This helps explain why the overall numbers have increased or dropped. For example, a pitcher going from 95 to 105 Stuff+ overall could be explained by the addition of a new pitch that was electric. It could also mean a pitch that was electric is now being thrown more often.
Overall, I like to use Stuff+ as an upside metric to find pitchers who can provide use with strikeouts in fantasy baseball.
Location +
While Stuff+ looks at pitch characteristics, Location+ uses a combination of the count and the pitch type to analyze a pitcher’s ability to put the ball in the correct location. The “correct location”, instead of being tracked individually based on a catcher’s call, is a standard implied location for all pitchers based on the count.
While Stuff+ is used for upside, I like using Location+ as a floor metric to identify pitchers who have good command, walk fewer batters, and likely go deeper into games.
Pitching +
This metric gives us the overall scope of a pitcher in a couple of ways. It is a weighted average of both Stuff+ and Location+ and also adds batter-handedness to the equation to help with platoon splits. If a pitcher has good Stuff+ and Location+ but is just league average with Pitching+ there is a good chance he struggles against one side of the plate and most likely with righties as that will be the larger sample size.
Stuff+ Pitching Targets for 2025
Now that we have gone over what each metric is, I want to discuss three pitchers who I feel are trending up in a big way or due for a huge fantasy breakout in 2025 using Stuff+.
Hunter Brown (Houston Astros)
After a rookie season where he posted a 5.09 ERA, Brown took a big leap in 2024, lowering that to 3.49 which we could have seen coming as he posted a 3.52 xFIP in 2023. Digging deeper, we see that his fastball was the biggest factor in the positive regression. In 2023, he threw a four-seam fastball 46% of the time and it had a Stuff+ rating of just 93. In 2024, he added a sinker that he threw 18% of the time while dropping the four-seam usage to 35%. The sinker had a Stuff+ of 111 last year which was the fourth best of any starting pitcher and in turn, it helped the four-seamer which increased to a 104 Stuff+ rating. The only red flag here is that his K rate dropped from 26.8% to 25.1% but with a curveball that also elevated to a 104 Stuff+, I feel he can easily raise that K rate in 2025.
Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres)
The eight-year veteran was never been much more than league-average in terms of his K rate until 2023 and it comes down to one pitch, his slider. After replacing it in 2022 with more of a cutter, he brought it back in 2023 and figured something out in a big way. Throwing it 16% of the time in 2023, he posted a 117 Stuff+ with it then in 2024, he increased the usage to 29% which resulted in an elite 128 Stuff+ on that slider. The slider was the main reason he has posted a 31.2% and 28.9% K rate over the last two years. The only red flag is that the ERA remained north of 4.00 both of those seasons but there is good news in terms of projection as he posted an xFIP in the mid 3’s both of those seasons. Aiding that projection is the move to San Diego and one of the best pitchers’ parks in the big leagues.
Put it all together and Pivetta provides great value for fantasy baseball managers coming off the board outside of pick 200.
Luis Severino (Athletics)
After a down season with the Yankees in 2023(6.65 ERA, 21% HR/FB rate), Severino took a short trip across New York to join the Mets and had a terrific, bounce-back season. Much like Brown, who I mentioned above, Severino started throwing more two-seam/sinker fastballs and fewer four-seamers and saw the Stuff+ of each end up slightly above average. On top of that, his slider went from good to great and had a Top 5 Stuff+(138) rating among all starting pitchers.
There is some risk as he moves to the Athletics in 2025 but with the transformation of his fastball combined with an elite slider, I feel he has a shot at a sub-4 ERA with 25%+ K rate. He is currently going off the board outside of the 300th pick in drafts making him a terrific risk/reward draft-day value pick.
Who are your favorite shortstop ADP values this season? Drop some names in the comments below. For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
