Baseball is approaching faster than ever. With Spring Training right around the corner, draft season is in full swing. For fantasy baseball managers, now is the perfect time to gain an edge on the competition. Earlier this off-season, I released articles on first base busts and shortstop busts. Now, it is time to shift to third base. The position is still filled with big-name veteran stars. Jose Ramirez, Austin Riley, and Manny Machado rank toward the top of the position. However, a new crop of third basemen is rising quickly. Deciphering who to avoid in drafts is key for fantasy managers to find success in 2025.
Fantasy Baseball Third Base Busts
Junior Caminero – TBR
The Junior Caminero hype first picked up following his trade to Tampa Bay before the 2022 season. After dominating the lower levels of the Minor Leagues in 2022, and hitting 31 home runs in 2023, the hype train had officially reached sky-high levels. Many in the dynasty baseball community were referring to Caminero as the top prospect in baseball. Caminero had power and showed off decent speed to earn his spot at the top of the dynasty ranks. This hype has continued to push forward despite mediocre results. Caminero is being drafted as the 3B8 inside of the top 100 picks in drafts. This is far too high and is likely to leave fantasy baseball managers disappointed at the end of 2025.
Caminero has accumulated 213 plate appearances over the past two seasons. The results have been disappointing for those who invested draft capital and FAAB. He owns a .246 batting average with seven home runs and a 101 wRC+. Even still, the fantasy baseball community is still in on him. There is a popular saying in the fantasy realm which is, “Do not draft a player at their ceiling.” That is exactly what Caminero feels like. There is nothing wrong with calling your shot on a young player. Second-year breakouts are incredibly popular. However, there is no discount for Caminero struggling to perform against Major League pitching. He is being drafted above guys like Jake Burger and Matt Chapman, both of whom were reliable fantasy assets for managers last year. Fantasy managers need to try and avoid chasing the flashy new player. That seems to be the case with Caminero.
So, what are the issues in Caminero’s profile? For starters, he does not run anymore. When Caminero’s name was first generating buzz, many viewed him as a potential 15-steal player. As his body has continued to fill out, running has become less and less a part of his game. He has stolen just two bases in his professional career so far. Projecting more than five stolen bases is difficult.
The lack of steals adds pressure on his batting average and power to play up. Batting average has been a problem for Caminero since his promotion from Double-A. In his small sample from last season, Caminero whiffed over 31% of the time and chased 35% of the time. Combine this with an inconsistent swing that leads to poor sweet spot percentages, and it is difficult to project Caminero finishing as a high average hitter. From a power standpoint, Caminero has plenty of raw pop. His exit velocities are off the charts and when Caminero gets it in the air, good things tend to happen. The issue has been elevating the ball consistently. Caminero has struggled with high ground ball rates throughout his professional career. This launch angle issue has prevented him from tapping into his game power consistently. This does not project to change in 2025.
An optimistic outlook on Caminero lands him with an average of around .250 with 26-28 home runs. Not a bad hitter by any means, but far from a star. Looking at ZIPS projection for Caminero, he is projected to finish as the 18th-best third baseman in fantasy baseball. Caminero’s prospect helium has carried over to the Major Leagues, inflating his draft stock. His massive moonshot home run in the Dominican Winter League only adds fuel to the fire. Caminero is being drafted at his ceiling. That is a bad recipe for fantasy managers. Avoid Caminero in your drafts this year.
Nolan Arenado – STL
The trade rumors surrounding Nolan Arenado have been constant this off-season. The Cardinals have not been shy about their intent to move him. However, Arenado has been picky in waiving his no-trade clause. This has resulted in a stalemate that has made it increasingly likely Arenado will start the season as St. Louis’ Opening Day third baseman. Arenado is still a strong defender but his offense fell off in a big way last season. Name value could lead fantasy managers to believe he is a value in drafts. This is the opposite of the truth. Arenado will yet again be a bust for fantasy managers who draft him in 2025.
The truth is that Arenado is not being drafted highly. The draft price of Arenado is down at 3B18 around pick 217. This is behind guys like Josh Jung, Maikel Garcia, and Luis Rengifo. These are not names we are accustomed to seeing Arenado go after. Based on this, Arenado can only be so much of a bust for 2025. The inclusion of Arenado was necessary for those attracted to the name. Arenado has been one of the best third basemen of the past decade. He has been a constant presence in fantasy lineups and seeing his name that late in drafts may seem too good to pass up. The purpose of this is to encourage fantasy managers to continue avoiding Arenado in drafts even at this discounted price.
2024 marked the third consecutive season in which Arenado’s home run total dipped. The 26 home runs he hit last year were bound to regress, but the drop-down to 16 was still a bit shocking to see. When you look at Arenado’s batted ball data, 16 home runs might even seem generous. Arenado’s average exit velocity dropped to the lowest mark of his career at 86.3 mph. His max EV was also the lowest of his career at 107.5 mph. His 3.2% barrel rate ranked in the sixth percentile in all of baseball. Despite his home run rate dropping to its lowest total since 2013, Arenado was still extremely lucky. He hit a home run on 75% of his barrels and 90% of his pulled barrels. If you followed my series earlier this off-season you would know these rates are bound to regress in 2025.
Arenado still does some things really well. He is a great defender and has excellent plate discipline. His contact skills remained toward the top of the league, but his fantasy value is extremely limited. Arenado does not steal many bases and without the home runs, there are more attractive options available in drafts. He lacks upside and could continue to age poorly if his performance against four-seam fastballs is any indication. Fantasy managers would be wise to steer away from Arenado in drafts to avoid feeling disappointed. No matter where he plays in 2025, Arenado will struggle to produce for fantasy teams.
Royce Lewis – MIN
The first overall pick from 2017 has had a roller coaster of a career. Lewis’ professional career got off to a fast start in the lower levels of the Minor Leagues. Then, the pandemic and injuries forced Lewis to miss two seasons. He returned and even made his Major League debut in 2022, but injuries have been a consistent theme ever since. When healthy, Lewis has shown tremendous upside. If you segregate out portions of the last two seasons, he could be considered an elite asset heading into 2024. The issue is dependability. A fantasy asset’s greatest skill is being available. Lewis has not been that. Drafting Lewis will leave you saying, “if only…” Avoid feeling that way in 2025. Lewis is likely to finish the 2025 season as a bust, given his current draft price.
Lewis’ draft price is currently right around Caminero’s. He is going as the 3B9 in drafts around pick 113. If forced to pick one of the two, the upside of Lewis is the clear winner. From August 23, 2023, to June 21, 2024, Lewis was one of the best hitters to ever play. In 181 plate appearances, Lewis crushed 21 home runs with a .325 batting average. That is a 600-plate appearance pace of 70 home runs. That is league-winning type of production. Nobody is here to deny the kind of upside that Lewis has. However, rolling stats over from one year to another to paint the pretty picture does not work for fantasy. With the good, comes the bad which seems to be being ignored.
Durability can be difficult to project. A player can only be considered so safe when unexpected injuries occur all of the time. For certain players though injury-prone is a real thing. Since the conclusion of the 2019 season, Lewis has appeared in only 208 professional games. Not Major League games, professional games. For reference, Kyle Seager has played in 219 Major League games over that period of time, and he has been retired since 2021. Missed time has to be factored into Lewis’ 2025 projection. Most of the projection systems have him projected for between 122 and 134 games played next season. Lewis has not cleared the 130 games played mark at any point in his professional career.
The other issue with Lewis is his disappearance from the second half of last season. After a stellar first half, Lewis slashed just .207/.270/.350 in the second half. He hit six home runs and did not steal a base. Although Lewis has been around for three seasons now, the book on his is still relatively small. As with any young hitter, with more experience comes a bigger book on how to exploit your weaknesses. Fascinatingly enough, Lewis’ weakness is on fastballs. Last season, Lewis hit just .203 with a .406 slug on four-seam fastballs. Pitchers attacked him with fastballs over 50% of the time. In particular, the percentage of fastballs up in the zone increased significantly as the season moved along. Lewis did not generate a single hit off a fastball up in the zone while whiffing over 50% of the time.
Lewis is an incredibly talented player. His power upside is truly league-winning. However, there is more than injury risk in his profile. Injuries have decimated Lewis’ base stealing abilities which no longer projects to be a part of his game. Fantasy managers also need to account for Lewis’ struggles in the second half. Struggling against fastballs and high velocity is not typically a good sign in today’s game. Lewis will need to make major adjustments in 2025 to bounce back to the player we saw in the back half of 2023. His draft price is too high for the volatility in his profile. There are better options that present plenty of upside later in fantasy drafts that managers should prioritize over Lewis. He is a prime bust candidate at his current draft price.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
